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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 2, No. 33, March 1, 2004
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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J&K: Shifting
Strategy of Subversion
K. P. S. Gill
Publisher, SAIR; President, Institute for Conflict Management
There are dramatic signs of shifting strategies in the covert
war in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), as Pakistan reorients its
position to take advantage of the rising sentiment in favour
of peace, even as it seeks to sustain terrorism on Indian
soil. The Muttahida (United) Jehad Council (MJC),
which was shifted from Islamabad to Muzzafarabad in Pakistan
occupied Kashmir (PoK) in order to assert the pretence of
its 'autonomy', has been reorganized; component terrorist
groups have been instructed by the Inter Services Intelligence
(ISI) to drop the expressions jehad, lashkar,
jaish or mujahiddeen in their names in order
to project a 'secular political' rather than Islamist image.
As a result, three new 'alliances' have emerged: the Kashmir
Resistance Forum (KRF); the Kashmir Freedom Forum (KFF);
and the Hizb-ul-Mujahideeen (HM).
The Hizb alone has been permitted to retain the 'mujahiddeen'
in its name, since it is projected as an 'indigenous' Kashmiri
group, as against the others, which are dominated by Pakistani
and other foreign mercenaries.
Simultaneously, cries of 'human rights violations' by the
Indian security forces, and orchestrated protests against
these, are sweeping across Kashmir, even as terrorist groups
escalate violence. The most significant of recent terrorist
operations was, of course, the grenade attack on Chief Minister
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's political rally at Beerwah in Budgam
district on February 27, 2004. Though a young woman in the
crowd tragically lost her life, the Chief Minister was not
hurt, and returned to the podium after a few minutes to
continue with his address, even as the crowd reassembled
in an unprecedented demonstration of solidarity in an area
that, not long ago, was regarded as a jehadi 'heartland'.
Significantly, at least 12 political activists, mainly from
Sayeed's People's Democratic Party (PDP), have already been
killed since January 2004, in anticipation of Parliamentary
elections, which are scheduled for April-May 2004.
Nevertheless, the pressure on terrorist formations in the
State is enormous, and rising. Overt support from Pakistan
- including artillery cover that was routinely provided
to infiltrating groups - has diminished, as the Pervez Musharraf
regime comes under mounting international - particularly
US - pressure for a wide range of transgressions, including
its support to international terrorism and Pakistan's role
in the proliferation of nuclear technologies to rogue states,
including Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Counter-terrorist
operations by Indian security forces have also been enormously
successful over the past months, and, apart from a continuous
stream of arrests and killings of terrorist cadres, most
major formations operating in J&K have lost frontline leaders
over the past months. Since May last year, after Prime Minister
Vajpayee's 'offer of friendship' to Pakistan in April 2003,
at least 27 frontline terrorist leaders in J&K have been
killed, including, in the current year itself, Abdul Majid
Wani, 'divisional commander' of the HM (February 24, 2004);
Ishfaq Ahmad Rehmani, 'district commander' of the Al Badr
Mujahideeen (February 21, 2004); Ehsaan Elahi, 'district
commander' of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT,
February 20, 2004); Rafeeq Ahmed Dar 'chief commander operations',
Al Umar Mujahideeen (February 6, 2004); Ghulam Rasool Dar,
'chief commander operations', HM (January 16, 2004); Abbas
Malik, 'district commander', Doda, HM (January 15, 2004);
and Javed Ahmad, 'operational commander', LeT (January 13,
2004). The steady losses inflicted on the terrorist leadership
have enormously affected operational capacities, and also
brought pressure on 'overground' organisations, including
factions of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC)
as well as a number of 'human rights' fronts to orchestrate
systematic political campaigns, agitations, and judicial
actions to blunt security force operations.
This has been a consistent strategy of terrorist groups
across India - and not only in J&K - particularly in periods
of terrorist reverses and of 'political negotiations' for
the 'settlement' of conflicts. The modus operandi
is particularly visible in what are being referred to as
the 'Bandipore atrocities' involving two separate incidents
in which six civilians were killed. The first of these,
the killing of Mohammad Shafi Chechi of the Chithibanday
village near Bandipore, was projected as a 'fake encounter'
of an 'innocent civilian'. However, subsequent investigations
not only established the fact that an exchange of fire did
take place between Chechi and an Army patrol on February
5, but also that the body had subsequently been brought
to his village, where his family and other residents failed
to identify him. The body was subsequently exhumed on the
family's request, and allegations were made that he had
been killed in a 'fake encounter'. Investigators concluded
that the family may have changed its story in order to secure
some sort of compensation from the Government, which would
only be forthcoming if Chechi were not involved in terrorist
activities.
The second 'Bandipore incident' involved the killing of
five civilian porters, again residents of Chithibanday,
working with the Army, who villagers and human rights groups
claimed had been killed in 'cold blood' and passed off as
'terrorists' by the Army. Subsequent investigations demonstrated
that these accounts were 'not credible' and that the unarmed
porters were, in fact, cut down in crossfire in which three
Army personnel and six terrorists were also killed. There
has, however, been widespread criticism of the use of civilian
porters for Army duties in areas of conflict, and the Army
has now taken steps to discourage the practice, though operational
imperatives in the difficult J&K terrain make civilian guides
and porters difficult to dispense with entirely.
The truth of the 'Bandipore atrocities' did not, however,
deter 'human rights' and other political formations in the
State, including both factions of the Hurriyat, from making
these supposed 'excesses' the centre of a campaign of violent
protests, which resulted in a succession of incidents, including
the 'beating up' of civilians by the Army and the police,
and these eventually culminated in police firing on a violent
crowd of over 3,000 persons in Bandipore on February 27,
2004, in which one protestor was killed, setting in motion
another cycle of protests against this 'atrocity'.
Another recent incident of the abuse of the human rights
platform illustrates the pattern: in December 2003, two
sisters complained that they had been shot by soldiers when
they resisted attempts to arrest their brother. Subsequent
investigations established that the girls had, in fact,
been shot by a LeT terrorist, Inayatullah Khan, and had
been told to lie about the incident or face reprisals. These
incidents are not unique, and allegations of 'human rights
violations' are routinely put out after virtually every
arrest or encounter between the state's security forces
and terrorist groups.
These are familiar stories. In the end 1980s and early 1990s,
battered by sustained counter-terrorism operations, and
with increasing political interference as a result of a
number of terrorist sympathisers and former terrorists finding
a place in the country's democratic processes due to the
Centre's efforts to find a 'political solution' to the Khalistani
terrorist movement in the Punjab, precisely the same pattern
had been massively employed. The "sustained agitational
and propaganda campaign… backed by narrowly targeted terrorist
violence" in Punjab has been recorded elsewhere:
Calls
for bandhs became a daily occurrence; jathas
(groups) were sent to court arrest and gherao
(organise sit-ins at) police stations after every
police action or arrest of a terrorist… Each of these
events became an occasion for the most inflammatory
rhetoric, as political and religious leaders addressed
the people in the most immoderate terms possible,
constructing a false mythology of sacrifice and martyrdom
around the death of every common criminal…This incendiary
mix of politics, religion and intimidation culminated
in a campaign of disruption that pinned down ever-increasing
numbers of security personnel, progressively reducing
the force available for operational duties… This strategy
of quasi-political mobilisation was backed up by a
massive and well-coordinated campaign by another group
of terrorist front organisations masquerading as human
rights activists… Every arrest victimised the innocent.
Every action by the security forces was an 'excess',
an atrocity. The countryside was rife with stories
of these alleged 'police atrocities'; but in every
case they were 'known' to have happened in 'a village
nearby', to have been witnessed by a person invariably
other than the narrator; they transpired in an indeterminate
area of the mind that could not be identified on any
map of Punjab, but which existed, at once, everywhere
and nowhere. [Endgame
in Punjab: 1988-1993]
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This, precisely,
is what is again being witnessed in J&K, and any assessment
of current trends in the State, including the shifting pronouncement
of the Hurriyat factions, must factor in the reality that
these protests and agitations are part of a coordinated
campaign to obstruct security forces from carrying out legitimate
counter-terrorism operations, and to further the terrorist
agenda by means that exploit the institutions and freedoms
of democracy. Any aberrations and highhandedness by security
forces, must not, of course, go unpunished. However, while
allegations of human rights abuses must be taken seriously
and investigated at the highest level, there is urgent need
to understand, equally, the dynamic in which 'human rights'
claims become an integral element of the negotiating strategy
of the front organisations of terrorist groups and sympathetic
political formations, as well as of the state sponsors of
such terrorist groups and front organisations.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
February 23-29,
2004
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
8
|
INDIA
|
Arunachal
Pradesh
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
8
|
5
|
19
|
32
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
1
|
8
|
3
|
12
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
8
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Tripura
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
10
|
14
|
40
|
64
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NEPAL
|
3
|
4
|
11
|
18
|
PAKISTAN
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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BANGLADESH
Suspected
Islamist
extremists
attack
prominent
writer
Humayun
Azad
in
Dhaka:
Suspected
Islamist
extremists
reportedly
stabbed
prominent
writer
Humayun
Azad
in
front
of
the
Bangla
Academy
in
capital
Dhaka
on
February
27,
2004.
Azad,
a
Professor
of
Bangla
at
the
Dhaka
University,
was
allegedly
threatened
by
the
extremists
for
the
launch
of
his
latest
work
'Pak
Sar
Zamin
Saad
Baad'
in
November
2003.
Daily
Star,
February
28,
2004.
INDIA
Woman
killed
during
terrorist
attack
on
Chief
Minister's
rally
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir:
Unidentified
terrorists
fired
rifle
grenades
targeting
Chief
Minister
Mufti
Mohammad
Sayeed's
public
rally
at
Beerwah
in
the
Budgam
district
on
February
27,
2004.
Even
as
the
Chief
Minister
and
two
of
his
Ministers
escaped
unhurt,
a
22-year-old
woman
was
killed
and
four
persons,
including
two
children,
sustained
injuries.
Two
grenades
fell
in
close
vicinity
of
the
public
meeting
and
exploded
within
a
gap
of
approximately
10
seconds.
Later,
the
Chief
Minister
delivered
his
address
and
said
that
the
terrorist
strike
was
an
attempt
of
certain
elements,
who
were
attempting
to
sabotage
the
current
peace
process
between
New
Delhi
and
Islamabad.
No
terrorist
group
has
claimed
responsibility
for
the
attack
thus
far.
Daily
Excelsior,
February
28,
2004.
Hurriyat
Conference
announces
suspension
of
talks
with
Union
Government:
The
separatist
front,
All
Parties
Hurriyat
Conference
(APHC),
announced
on
February
25,
2004,
the
suspension
of
talks
with
the
Union
Government
and
gave
it
a
deadline
till
the
month-end
to
stop
alleged
human
rights
violations
by
security
forces
to
carry
forward
the
dialogue.
"The
dialogue
process
with
the
Government
is
in
suspension
because
there
is
no
evidence
of
sincerity
and
seriousness
on
their
part,"
Hurriyat
chairman
Maulana
Mohammad
Abbas
Ansari
said
during
a
press
conference
at
the
front's
headquarters
in
Srinagar.
"There
has
to
be
a
perceptible
change
in
the
ground
situation
by
the
end
of
this
month.
If
not,
we
will
not
go
for
talks
with
the
Centre,"
added
Ansari.
While
claiming
that
there
was
no
reduction
in
human
rights
violations,
Ansari
also
said
"if
the
chain
of
events
unfolding
since
the
beginning
of
this
month
does
not
break,
Hurriyat
will
take
a
decision
on
the
talks.
We
will
take
to
streets...
We
will
not
take
to
arms
but
to
protest
is
our
duty."
As
many
as
18
persons
have
been
killed
in
custody
since
January
22,
2004,
and
another
15
have
disappeared
during
the
same
period,
alleged
Ansari.
Daily
Excelsior,
February
26,
2004.
Eight
security
force
personnel
killed
in
landmine
blast
in
West
Bengal:
Eight
security
force
personnel,
including
five
belonging
to
the
Eastern
Frontier
Rifles,
were
killed
and
four
others
sustained
injuries
when
a
landmine,
allegedly
planted
by
the
Left
Wing
extremists
-
Naxalites
-
of
the
People's
War
Group
(PWG),
exploded
at
Golabari
in
the
Belpahari
area
of
West
Bengal's
West
Midnapore
district
on
February
25,
2004.
Telegraph
India,
February
26,
2004.
PAKISTAN
20
Al
Qaeda
suspects
arrested
in
South
Waziristan
Agency:
Pakistani
security
agencies
launched
an
operation
on
February
24,
2004,
against
suspected
terrorists
taking
shelter
in
the
tribal
areas
bordering
Afghanistan.
At
least
20
Al
Qaeda
suspects,
including
some
foreign
nationals,
are
reported
to
have
been
arrested
during
these
raids.
Director
General
of
Inter
Services
Public
Relations
(ISPR)
Maj.
Gen
Shaukat
Sultan
said
that
foreign
nationals
were
among
those
captured
in
the
Azam
Warsak
and
Shkai
areas.
Three
foreign
national
women
were
arrested
from
Azam
Warsak,
some
12
kilometers
west
of
Wana,
headquarters
of
the
South
Waziristan
Agency.
Unnamed
officials
were
quoted
as
saying
that
Saudi,
Egyptian
and
Yemeni
nationals
were
among
those
detained
and
others
could
be
Uzbeks
or
Chechens.
The
Government
had
set
February
20
as
the
deadline
for
tribal
elders
to
hand
over
Al
Qaeda
operatives
and
thus
far
approximately
58
suspects
have
been
turned
over.
Jang,
February
25,
2004.
Crackdown
ordered
on
Islamist
extremist
group
in
Northern
Areas:
The
Federal
Government
has
reportedly
ordered
a
crackdown
on
an
unnamed
group
led
by
Maulvi
Shahzada
Khan
in
the
Northern
Areas
for
its
alleged
involvement
in
terrorist
activity.
Quoting
official
sources,
a
report
said
that
intelligence
agencies
have
warned
the
Government
that
the
group
could
resort
to
terrorist
activities
at
any
place
and
at
any
time.
They
said
that
the
group's
links
with
Jaish-e-Mohammed
(JeM),
Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
(TNSM)
and
other
outlawed
Jehadi
organisations
had
been
established,
and
its
links
with
Al
Qaeda
cannot
be
ruled
out.
Khan
is
alleged
to
be
involved
in
several
bomb
blasts
and
firing
at
Social
Action
Programme
school
buildings,
besides
attacks
on
government
officials.
Daily
Times,
February
25,
2004.
Military
officials
sought
my
permission
to
sell
nuclear
technology,
claims
former
Prime
Minister
Benazir
Bhutto:
Benazir
Bhutto
claimed
in
London
on
February
24,
2004,
that
she
was
approached
several
times
when
she
was
Pakistani
Prime
Minister
by
military
officials
and
scientists
seeking
permission
to
export
nuclear
technology,
but
she
had
turned
down
their
requests.
In
an
interview
to
the
Financial
Times,
Bhutto
said
she
and
senior
military
officers
had
agreed
to
bar
the
export
of
nuclear
technology
in
December
1988.
"It
certainly
was
their
belief
that
they
could
earn
tons
of
money
if
they
did
this,"
said
Bhutto.
Her
comments
came
two
days
after
she
claimed
that
Dr
Abdul
Qadeer
Khan
was
"covering
up"
for
President
Pervez
Musharraf
by
publicly
confessing
to
transferring
nuclear
technology
to
other
countries.
Daily
Times,
February
25,
2004.
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