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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 4, No. 36, March 20, 2006

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal



ASSESSMENT



PAKISTAN



The Withering

Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management; Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution

Truth, more often than not, exists in the small print. The daily reports of incidents of insurgent and terrorist activities in Pakistan fail to communicate the enormity of the trajectory of violence and instability that is undermining the authority of the state in progressively widening areas of the country over the past years. But when the numbers are put together, the emerging picture of cumulative attrition would be more than disturbing for Islamabad. Crucially, where 648 persons (including 430 civilians and 137 terrorists) were killed in insurgent and terrorist conflicts through year 2005, by March 19, year 2006 had already recorded 529 deaths (including 251 civilians and 225 terrorists). Given Islamabad’s efforts to stifle information flows from the areas of conflict, and the widespread application of excessive and indiscriminate use of force, including the repeated strafing of civilian concentrations, the total number of fatalities may, in fact, be considerably higher.

Large tracts of Pakistan are now clearly conflict-afflicted with a wide array of anti-state actors and terrorists engaging in varying degrees of violence and subversion. A cursory look at the map indicates that the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan are witnessing large-scale violence and subversion. Violence in parts of the Sindh, Punjab and North West Frontier Province (NWFP) has also brought these provinces under the security scanner. Islamabad’s writ is currently being challenged vigorously – violently or otherwise – in wide geographical areas, and on a multiplicity of issues.

The Balochistan province – accounting for approximately 44 per cent of Pakistan’s landmass – is now afflicted by an encompassing insurgency, as are most parts of North and South Waziristan in FATA – another three per cent of the country’s total landmass. Gilgit-Baltistan has long been simmering, and it is only the repeated cycles of repression and state-backed Sunni terrorism that have kept the restive population in rein in a region that accounts for another eight per cent of the country. 55 per cent of Pakistan-controlled territory, including Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, is, consequently, outside the realm of civil governance and is currently dominated essentially through military force. Further, sporadic acts of terrorist violence have been recurrent in parts of the NWFP, Punjab and Sindh, even as these emerge as safe-havens for a broad assortment of jihadi and other anti-state actors.

Notably, violence and the accompanying retreat of civil governance has occurred amidst the fact that Pakistan has committed approximately 80,000 troops in the FATA and 123,000 in Balochistan, with support from helicopter gun-ships, artillery and the Air Force. The writ of the state is increasingly fragile in these regions, with recurrent violence undermining official claims that the situation is ‘under control’. Despite the ‘intense’ Army operations in FATA, sources indicate that frontline Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives still maintain a significant presence in the region adding to problems of the already-challenged US Coalition forces in neighbouring Afghanistan. Although the military regime has been claiming that most foreign terrorists have been evicted, there is mounting evidence that the jihadi presence in FATA is strengthening, that Islamist extremists are regularly confronting the Pakistani state, and that they, in fact, control a substantial area in North Waziristan, and widening areas in South Waziristan, to an extent as to make a permanent military presence impossible.

Islamabad has followed a strange mixture of carrot and stick in its strategy for FATA. Large-scale military operations, including targeted killings and strafing of population centres, have been a recurrent feature in the region over the past three years. On the other hand, the military regime has also sought to procure the allegiance of local leaders by doling out large sums of monies. While the carrots have been greedily consumed, there is little evidence of any loyalty to Islamabad, with local leaders refusing to ‘stay bought’. Rising civilian fatalities have, in fact, deepened public alienation, and increased the likelihood that the disorder and instability gradually consume areas that are currently peaceful. Islamabad’s attempts to restore order in Waziristan have, according to one estimate, led to 300 civilians and 250 troops being killed and about 1,400 persons wounded in 2005. According to Institute for Conflict Management data, in 238 incidents between January 2005 and March 19, 2006, a total of 667 persons, including 121 civilians, 71 soldiers and 475 terrorists have died. 340 terrorists and suspects were reported to have been arrested during this period. Once again, given the constraints on information flows from the region, these numbers may well be significant underestimates.

Sources indicate that the Taliban-led Islamist extremists are now in control of parts of the FATA bordering Afghanistan. The Dand-i-Darpa Khail region in North Waziristan, near the main town of Miranshah, is the focal point for Islamist extremists in Afghanistan, including former Taliban ‘commander’ Jalaluddin Haqqani, and his son Sirajuddin Haqqani. Maulana Abdul Khaliq, chief of the Gulshan-e-Ilm madrassa in Miranshah, was declared the ‘mastermind’ of the March 2, 2006- incident in which the local Taliban occupied Government buildings, including a telephone exchange, in Miranshah. Sikander Qayyum, the Peshawar-based security chief for the tribal zones, told AFP that the extremists had killed at least 120 pro-government tribal chiefs in recent months, even as the heads of sundry decapitated ‘enemies of Islam’ are flaunted on flagpoles in many areas. Federal Interior Minister Aftab Ahmad Sherpao admitted on March 11 that ‘miscreants’ were trying to wrest control of Government buildings and challenging the writ of the state in the region. He also warned of a spillover from tribal areas to settled areas while referring to two explosions in Dera Ismail Khan and three in Tank districts.

In a parallel and troubling development, there have been indications over the past few weeks that the administration is under intense pressure from the Taliban to introduce Sharia (Islamic law) in Waziristan. In fact, clerics announced the enforcement of Sharia in South Waziristan on March 10, saying that disputes would now be resolved through Islamic laws instead of the tribal Jirga (council). An announcement to this effect was reportedly made during Friday prayer sermons in Wana and other towns of South Waziristan. The announcement came following letters from local Taliban commanders to all prayer leaders asking them to enforce the Sharia. Another indication of the state’s retreat is the fact that tribal elders of South Waziristan have reportedly asked the local Taliban to open an office in the area to ‘improve security’, though Maulana Abbas, a prominent pro-Taliban cleric, clarified that the function of the Taliban office would be restricted to improving security, and it would not presently seek to implement Islamic Law. Interestingly, Abbas was on the Government's wanted list a year ago, but was removed after promising not to take part, or encourage others to take part, in attacks on security forces. In January 2006, video footage released from North Waziristan showed the headless bodies of members of a ‘criminal gang’, whom the Taliban had ‘punished’. Abbas claimed that the Government did not object to the vigilante action against criminals, and the plans to ‘improve security’ through such measures.

A spread of violence in FATA is in line with the Taliban strategy to engage Pakistani troops along the border and safeguard their bases in order to launch a targeted spring offensive against US Coalition troops in Afghanistan.

The FATA, comprising 13 Areas/Agencies, has historically remained outside the purview of Islamabad’s authority. Power in the region alternates between the fiercely independent tribes, Islamist terrorists and the Political Agent appointed by Islamabad, the last of whom theoretically wields absolute de jure powers. The contours of violence and unrest envelop the familiar loop of underdevelopment, Federal Government discrimination, and long-neglected political grievances – real or perceived. There is intense resentment against the presence of the Army in FATA. Troops entered the region for the first time in late 2002 after intense negotiations with the tribes, who halfheartedly complied in the fervent expectation that there would be dramatic economic spin-offs. With little permanent benefits accruing, however, three years of military operations have led a number of tribes to view the Army as nothing more than a repressive and subjugating force. The underdevelopment matrix includes the absence of infrastructure and basic facilities like clean drinking water, health and educational facilities. The literacy rate in FATA is barely 17 per cent, (29 per cent male, 3 per cent female). 10 per cent of the population has access to sanitation, 43 per cent has access to potable water and there are 3,110 schools for a population of 3.69 million (Data for 2004).

The people of FATA are also denied fundamental and basic political-legal rights, which are available to citizens of Pakistan in other areas under the Constitution. The Islamabad Policy Research Institute, for instance, noted in a March 2005 study: “Article 25 of the 1973 Constitution declares that all citizens of Pakistan are equal before the law; but this article is not applicable to FATA, although under Article 1 of the Constitution FATA is a part of the territories of Pakistan… Political parties are banned in the region. The administrative, political and judicial structure of the areas is based on FCR [Frontier Crimes Regulation], which is a legacy of British colonial rule. This is an arbitrary law under which absolute power is vested in the Political Agent. Till 1997 there was no appeal against the punishment awarded under FCR. But the superior courts are still barred from exercising their jurisdiction in the Tribal Areas.”

Comparable conditions of collapse prevail in Balochistan, where all 22 districts are reeling either under a sub-nationalist tribal insurgency or, separately, Islamist extremism. In January 2006, Senator Sanaullah Baloch disclosed that at least 180 people had died in bombings, 122 children had been killed by paramilitary troops and hundreds of people had been arrested since the resumption of military operations in November 2005. A small measure of the intensity of the Baloch insurgency is visible in the fact that approximately 1,500 rockets were fired in 40 attacks in January-February 2006 alone. During this brief period, insurgents also blew up railway tracks on at least eight occasions and attacked gas pipelines on 27 occasions – indeed, there were as many as 21 attacks on gas pipelines in just the 28 days of February. While there have been 23 bomb and 12 landmine explosions, power and telecom targets were attacked on six occasions in the first two months of 2006. Crucially, Baloch insurgents also destroyed three naval boats in the strategically vital Gwadar Port. Attacks on critical installations led to power and gas shortages in the Punjab, the province whose domination over Baloch resources fuels the insurgency. The Pakistan Railways has stopped operating passenger trains at night all over Balochistan. Railways Minister of State Ishaq Khan Khakwani clarified to the Senate that night journeys were ‘not safe’ because of terrorist activities in the province, adding further that even at daytime, pilot engines were being operated on tracks to pre-empt terrorist activity. The state now engages 123,000 military and paramilitary personnel in the ongoing operations in the province, expending Rupees Six billion a month, according to Senator Sanaullah Baloch. Some 600 check posts have been set up in Balochistan in an effort to contain the movement of insurgents. Structural and constitutional biases prevailing against the provinces feed popular anger and the insurgencies, and militate against any possible solution, particularly given Islamabad’s track record of intransigence. Adding to the Baloch insurgency are the Pashtun Islamist extremists concentrated in and around Quetta, tied closely to the Taliban, and engaged in a campaign of terror on both sides of the Afghan border in their areas of domination. Most of the violence in Balochistan is, however, 'nationalist' and there is no co-operation between Islamist terrorists in pockets in the North and the Baloch insurgents. There is, moreover, little love lost between the mullahs and the Sardars (Baloch tribal Chieftans).

FATA, NWFP, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan are areas of long-term neglect and of recurrent insurrections. However, the Pakistani ‘heartland’, Sindh and Punjab – particularly the politically and militarily dominant Punjab province – are now also passing progressively into the ambit of violence by anti-state actors. There were as many as 34 terrorist incidents in Punjab in 2005, and another three in January-February 2006; Sindh witnessed 50 and four such incidents over the same periods, respectively. Among the significant incidents this year was the suicide car bomb attack near the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, in which American diplomat David Fyfe and two others were killed, and 54 persons injured, on March 2, a day before President George W. Bush visited Pakistan.

Confounded by the violence, Islamabad has now directed district administrations in the Federal and provincial capitals to provide police escorts to Government officials working at the Presidency, Prime Minister’s House, Prime Minister’s Secretariat, the Governors’ and Chief Ministers’ offices and homes. The step came after intelligence agencies had warned against a ‘strong backlash’ by militants against ongoing military operations in Balochistan and FATA.

More than six years of General Musharraf’s authoritarian rule and repressive practices have pushed peripheral movements of political dissent into full-blown insurgencies, and the widening trajectory of violence demonstrates that the military regime is failing to shape an appropriate strategy of response in the face of multiple insurgencies and a rising trend of terrorist attacks across the country. Past experience in South Asia has, moreover, shown that the recovery of geographical spaces, once anti-state violence escalates beyond threshold levels, is extraordinarily difficult. The preceding and extended narrative is a clear indication that Musharraf has opened far too many fronts, his security forces are overstretched, and there has been a comprehensive and augmenting failure to contain the widening insurgencies, sectarian strife and Islamist terrorist violence that now envelope large swathes of the country.



NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
March 13-20, 2006

 
Civilian
Security Force Personnel
Terrorist
Total
BANGLADESH
5
0
5
10

INDIA

Assam
2
0
0
2
Gujarat
0
0
4
4
Jammu & kashmir
3
3
6
12
Left-wing Extremism
8
4
0
12
Manipur
1
0
0
1
Mizoram
0
0
1
1
Nagaland
2
0
0
2
Tripura
0
0
1
1

Total (INDIA)

16
7
12
35

NEPAL

7
1
2
10

PAKISTAN

6
8
0
14
 Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.






BANGLADESH

Peace Corps suspends operation in Bangladesh: The United States’ non-governmental organisation, Peace Corps, has decided to suspend indefinitely its programme in Bangladesh fearing attack on its volunteers by terrorists, after the arrest of five of the top seven leaders of the Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). In a statement, the Peace Corps said that it made this decision following a careful assessment of Bangladesh’s prevailing security environment, and did not base its conclusions on any single threat or incident. "We have welcomed the capture of Abdur Rahman and Bangla Bhai of the Jamaatul Mujahidin as significant steps forward in the campaign against terrorism and extremism. Ironically, one consequence of that success is concern over possible reprisal attacks against Americans or other Western nationals by JMB activists still at large. The security situation in Bangladesh will be periodically reviewed to determine whether to end or continue the suspension", the statement added. The Independent, March 16, 2006.



INDIA

Violent incidents have decreased in Jammu and Kashmir: The annual report of the Union Home Ministry for 2005-06 has said that violent incidents have decreased in Jammu and Kashmir in 2005. There were 1,990 terrorist incidents in the State in 2005 as against 2,565 incidents in 2004. As many as 557 civilians were killed in 2005 compared to 707 in 2004. The number of security force personnel killed also declined in 2005 with a toll of 189, compared to 281 in 2004. As many as 917 terrorists were killed in 2005 as compared to 976 during year 2004. Daily Excelsior, March 20, 2006.

159 terrorist modules neutralised during 2001-2005: As many as 159 Pakistan or Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)-supported terrorist modules have been neutralised in various parts of the country during 2001-2005, including 28 in 2005, the Union Home Ministry said on March 16, 2006. As many as 488 persons were arrested and 86 terrorists, including 57 Pakistani nationals, were killed, according to the ministry’s annual report for 2005-06 released on March 16. During 2001-05, 99 espionage modules (including 18 modules in 2005) were also neutralised leading to the arrest of 199 agents. The report said terrorist outfits operating and indulging in acts of terrorism in India continued to be based in Pakistan or Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). "The infrastructure of terror remains largely intact in Pakistan or PoK," it said. The report said known anti-India elements and those declared as fugitives from the law in India are sheltered in Pakistan. "The focus of the Pak-based or Pak-ISI sponsored terrorist outfits is also to promote disaffection and communal disharmony among the Indian people towards the state with a view to destabilising the country," it said. The report also said the main features of the ISI strategy in India included: intensification of low cost and proxy war operations in a wide area extending from Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to the hinterland, focusing on plans of coordinated attacks by terrorist outfits on security forces, mainly in J&K and increasing use of India’s immediate neighbourhood for executing its plans. Daily Excelsior, March 17, 2006.

Maoist violence has increased, indicates Union Home Ministry annual report: According to the Union Home Ministry annual report for 2005-06, released on March 16, killings of security force personnel showed a sharp increase of 53 per cent and civilian casualties went up by 11 per cent as compared to the incidents reported in 2004. According to the report, in 2005, there were 1,594 incidents of violence as compared to 1,533 in 2004. As many as 516 civilians were killed in 2005 as compared to 466 in the previous year. 153 police personnel lost their lives in 2005 as against 100 in 2004. Casualties among the Maoists also increased from 87 in 2004 to 223 in 2005. The report also said as many as 76 districts in the nine States of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal were "badly affected" by Maoist violence though in a varying degree. Among the steps being taken by the Ministry to counter the problem, the report said intelligence inputs were shared by the Central agencies with the States and steps had been initiated to strengthen intelligence collection and sharing mechanism. It has also been decided to "constitute Inter-State Intelligence Support Teams in the States" which had been affected by Maoist violence, the report added. Daily Pioneer, March 17, 2006.

Maoists seize train and passengers in Jharkhand: Cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) on March 13, 2006 captured the 628 Down Barwadih-Mughalsarai passenger train carrying more than 100 passengers near the Heyagarha station in Latehar district. The incident occurred in the midst of a shutdown called by the Maoists in the Palamau division, which covers Latehar district. General Railway Police spokesperson S.R. Gandhi said that the Maoists had attacked the train driver and cut off the communication system, snatching the walkie-talkie from the guard. Inspector-General of Police B.C. Verma added that the train was headed for Mughalsarai in Uttar Pradesh from Barkakhana in Jharkhand and close to a thick forests between the Heyagarha and Kumudi stations, around 7.30 p.m. when the Maoists seized it in protest against the killing of their 'zonal commander' Jagannath Koiri during an encounter in the Palamau district on March 3. Later, on March 14-morning, the Maoists released the train and all passengers were reported to be safe. New Indpress, March 14, 2006.

UNLF militants criminally assault Hmar girls: Militants of the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) criminally assaulted 21 girls belonging to the Hmar tribe in three villages of Churachandpur district, 200 kilometres from the district headquarters in Imphal in January 2006. The Joint Women’s Organisation of Churachandpur district brought the alleged incidents to the media’s notice. Levis, a 21-year-old girl from the Lungthulein village, told the media that UNLF cadres went to her village on January 16 and assaulted several male residents. “They then targeted the fairer girls of the village, dragging some of them into the jungle or to nearby houses. All these girls were sexually assaulted.” “The victims had themselves kept their ordeal a secret, fearing reprisal and social stigma. The matter came to light only after investigation by some NGOs,” said J.L. Sawmi, president of the Hmar Women’s Association. Sawmi further said about 1,000 residents of Tipaimukh, including some of the “rape victims”, have fled to Mizoram after the incident. The Telegraph, March 9, 2006.



NEPAL

Maoists and political parties sign agreement to intensify agitation: On March 19, 2006 the seven political parties and Maoists announced an agreement to launch a fresh agitation on April 6, 2006 against King Gyanendra. Both the sides made public the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) through separate statements. The programme starting on April 6 reportedly includes a four-day general strike and civil disobedience movement, besides a massive public rally in the capital Kathmandu on April 8. While the parties demanded restoration of the dissolved parliament (through people’s movement), formation of a powerful all-party government, peace talks with the insurgents and a new Constitution through elections to the Constituent Assembly, the Maoists demanded a national political conference of all democratic forces, formation of an interim Government and elections to the Constituent Assembly.

Meanwhile, following the agreement, Maoists on March 19 withdrew the blockade they had announced in the capital and district headquarters. Issuing a joint statement, CPN (Maoist) chairman Prachanda and senior Maoist leader Dr Baburam Bhattarai said the party has called off the blockade and all other protest programmes with effect from March 20. Nepal News, March 20, 2006.

Two senior leaders expelled from CPN (Maoist): Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, expelled two senior leaders of the outfit, Ravindra Shrestha and Mani Thapa alias Anukul. Issuing a statement on March 14, 2006 Prachanda termed the two leaders "deserters of the revolution and servants of the autocratic monarchy and counter-revolution." The expulsion comes in the wake of accusations leveled against Prachanda and another senior Maoist leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai by the expelled. Alleging that Prachanda and Bhattarai have deviated ideologically, Shrestha and Thapa on March 13 had appealed for an open discussion on the issue. "The party completely dismisses the so-called appeal made by Rabindra and Anukul in abusive and mean words against the (party) leadership," Prachanda said in the statement, adding, "There can be no serious discussion with them (Shrestha and Thapa) on the ‘theoretical’ questions raised by them in an extremely mechanical, offensive and distorted manner." Kantipur, March 15, 2006.



PAKISTAN

Osama bin Laden, Zawahri and Mullah Omar likely in Pakistan, says Afghan Foreign Minister: The Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah claimed in Washington on March 19, 2006 that Osama bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahri and Mullah Omar are all together and in Pakistan, where other Al Qaeda figures have been found and apprehended. Asked by CNN where Laden is, Abdullah replied that according to his country’s intelligence, the Al Qaeda leader is “outside Afghanistan and he might be in the same place where other members of Al Qaeda have been arrested.” He added that Zawahri was also in the same place where bin Laden was. Asked whether they were in Pakistan, the minister replied that it was “more likely.” To the question where Mullah Omar was, he replied that all these “friends” should be found together. Daily Times, March 20, 2006.

US State Department asks Pakistan to confirm arrest of Madrid bomber: The US State Department has sought confirmation from Pakistan of the arrest of an Al Qaeda leader believed to be the mastermind of the Madrid bombings in March 2004. CNN and NBC News had reported in November 2005 that Mustafa Setmariam Nasar was captured after a gun battle in a remote area of Kohat in the North West Frontier Province. CNN also reported that one of Nasar’s aides was killed in the incident. Sources in the Interior Ministry told Daily Times on March 15, 2006 that the State Department recently sent a letter to Federal Investigation Agency Director General Tariq Pervez through the US Embassy in Islamabad, seeking information about Nasar’s arrest. The letter, referring to various reports in the American and Spanish media about the arrest, asks the Pakistan Government to confirm whether the Syrian fugitive was being held in Pakistan and inquires about his latest status. The Syrian-born Nasar is considered the mastermind of the Madrid bombings, a series of coordinated attacks on March 11, 2004, which killed 192 people and wounded 2,050. The US State Department announced a $5 million reward for Nasar’s capture in July 2005, saying that he was believed to have fled either to Iraq or Pakistan’s tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Daily Times, March 16, 2006.

Security situation in Balochistan is an impediment to investment, says US: The United States said on March 13, 2006 that the security situation in Balochistan province was "an impediment" to investment in Pakistan. "The security situation needs to be improved as it is an impediment to investment. Until there is an improvement, substantial investment is not possible," US Energy Secretary Samuel W Bodman told journalists in Islamabad when asked about foreign investment in a gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan. Bodman, who arrived in Islamabad for talks on US cooperation in Pakistan’s energy sector, also did not support the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, saying: "Our country has significant problems with Iran. They are working on nuclear weapons and we are trying to prevent it, so it is impossible to support a contractual agreement." Daily Times, March 14, 2006.



SRI LANKA

UK-Sri Lanka agree to curb LTTE fund raising: The British Government has agreed to curb illegal fund raising from the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora in the United Kingdom (UK) by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The British Minister of State for the Home Department, Tony McNully, has agreed on the importance of sharing information in this regard and outlined practical measures to the Sri Lanka Foreign Minister, Mangala Samaraweera, in London on March 15, 2006. Daily News, March 17, 2006.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



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