INDIA
PAKISTAN
NEPAL
BHUTAN
BANGLADESH
SRI LANKA
Terrorism Update
Latest
S.A.Overview
Publication
Show/Hide Search
HomePrint
 
  Click to Enlarge
   

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 25, December 23, 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
USA
Click for PrintPrint

NATO Supplies: Endgame
Anurag Tripathi
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

As the US drawdown in Afghanistan approaches its culmination, Pakistan continues to extract all it can from its reluctant alliance in the War against Terror, leveraging its 'strategic location' to a maximum. Nevertheless, this strategy appears to be approaching its natural limits and, on December 9, 2013, the United State (US) Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, during his meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, reportedly warned Pakistan that, if it failed to secure the supply routes to and from Afghanistan, the US Congress may withhold military aid to Pakistan. An unnamed US defense official stated, “The Secretary made the point that we need to demonstrate the continued flow of goods in order to be able to continue fulfilling their reimbursements.”

Significantly, on October 19, 2013, the US had decided to give USD 1.6 billion in assistance to Pakistan. The sum had earlier been blocked because of tensions between the two countries over events inside Pakistan, including the Navy SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden at Abottabad, on May 2, 2011.

On December 12, 2013, however, the Pakistan Government denied having received any US warning. An official spokesperson of the Foreign Office declared, “I am not aware from where those reports appeared in the media. These were misleading reports.”

It is, nevertheless, the case that, on December 4, 2013, the US announced the suspension of NATO shipments to and from Afghanistan via the Torkham Gate route of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The action was taken following violent protests across the Province by the Imran Khan led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its partners - Jama’at-e-Islami (JeI) and Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP) - in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Government. The alliance of three parties formed the Government in KP in June 2013. Thousands of party supporters have been protesting against US drone strikes. The protests escalated following the killing of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Hakimullah Mehsud on November 1, 2013, in a US drone strike in the Dandy Darpakhel area of North Waziristan Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). 

On November 24, 2013, PTI and JeI set up a 'protest camp' at Hayatabad Toll Plaza in Peshawar to prevent NATO containers from entering Peshawar. They stopped trucks passing through the route for verification and turned back those carrying goods for NATO Forces in Afghanistan. Many have been accused of damaging goods and manhandling truck drivers, with Police registering cases against 40 PTI workers. On November 29, 2013, three PTI activists were arrested for their alleged involvement in manhandling truck drivers carrying NATO supplies to Afghanistan. Again, on December 2, 2013, cases were registered against PTI and JeI workers for breaking the seal of a NATO container bound for Afghanistan, during the sit-in at Hayatabad Toll Plaza. JeI leader, Kashif Azam and PTI camp in charge Malik Raees, were named in the FIR. Fayaz Ahmed Khalid, a political organizer with the PTI, declared, on December 18, 2013, “We will continue this sit-in until there is a good decision on the drones. It’s for ourselves, for our country.”

Amidst the existing chaos at the Torkham Gate, Imran Khan asserted, on December 3, 2013, that his party was considering blocking NATO supply routes in other Provinces as well. “PTI may block NATO supply routes in Punjab and Balochistan, as supply is being carried out via Chaman border in Qilla Abdullah District of Balochistan.”

There are two supply routes from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Both routes start in Karachi, Pakistan's principal port in its southern Sindh Province, on the Arabian Sea. From there, one route crosses the Khyber Pass, enters Afghanistan at Torkham, and terminates at Kabul, supplying northern Afghanistan. The other passes through Balochistan Province, crosses the border at Chaman in the Qilla Abdullah District of Balochistan, and ends at Kandahar, in the south of Afghanistan.

NATO convoys coming through Pakistan were originally the principal source of logistical support for the allied Forces in Afghanistan, at one time accounting for 80 to 90 per cent of all supplies for NATO Forces.

The latest episode of protests against NATO shipments to and from Afghanistan is not a new development. In most past cases, protests have followed US drone attacks against top militant leaders inside Pakistan. For instance, following the killing of Osama Bin Laden, Pakistani Parliamentarians on May 14, 2013, voted to review all aspects of their relationship with the US amid the worsening political fallout from the Navy Seals raid. The unanimous motion was passed at the conclusion of an extraordinary 10-hour parliamentary session, when the military's top brass offered apologies and an admission of failure.

Islamabad has also, on several occasions, attempted to evade responsibility for the security of the NATO supply lines. On June 9, 2010, then Federal Minister of the Interior Rehman Malik declared that NATO was responsible for the security of its supply lines, and that the Federal and Provincial Governments of Pakistan could not provide security to the 4,000 trucks which travelled daily across Pakistan. He added, further, "Various terminals, including the one attacked by TTP in Islamabad, have been established without Government knowledge and permission, and are involved in smuggling of different commodities." Ignoring the fact that NATO has no authority to engage in security operations on Pakistani soil, and the billions of dollars Pakistan receives in military aid for its ‘cooperation’ in the campaigns against terrorism, Malik argued that NATO’s ‘security budget’ was not provided to the Pakistan Government, but rather to private contractors directly hired by NATO: "This is not ours, but NATO’s responsibility — to arrange security for its convoys." He conceded, nevertheless, "As per [an] agreement between the two sides, Pakistan is supposed to allow the transportation to Pak-Afghan border."

On December 5, 2013, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson claimed in a press briefing, “We have seen reports that the United States has suspended the NATO supplies through Torkham for security of transporters. The Government has continued the arrangement for passage of NATO supplies in order to facilitate draw down of NATO forces from Afghanistan.”

Emboldened by the Governments ambivalent approach on the issue, various terrorist formations have engineered repeated attacks targeting NATO convoys. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the militants have carried out at least 291 such attacks since 2008, in which at least 163 persons have been killed. In the current year alone, 31 such attacks have taken place, resulting in 19 deaths.

US worries over the supply lines are naturally escalating. These lines are not only important for the safe and secure withdrawal of troops and materials, but are crucial to the Forces that will remain in Afghanistan after the 2014 drawdown. Reports currently suggest that up to 15,000 US troops may remain in Afghanistan until 2024. Given the situation in Pakistan, and Islamabad's demonstrable unreliability as a partner, the US is exploring other viable supply routes. As far back as January 20, 2009, then US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General David Petraeus had stressed, "It is very important as we increase the effort in Afghanistan that we have multiple routes that go into the country… There have been agreements reached, and there are transit lines now and transit agreements for commercial goods and services in particular that include several countries in the Central Asian states and also Russia." A major component of this strategy was the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a series of rail, water and road links to deliver cargo to Afghanistan through the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The route was created as an alternate way to move supplies into Afghanistan, instead of the exclusive dependence on Pakistan. The first shipment along the NDN commenced on February 20, 2009. By 2011, the NDN had started carrying 40 per cent of the supplies to US forces in Afghanistan (while the Pakistani routes accounted for 30 per cent, according to the US Department of Defense). According to data from the US Military's Transportation Command, only 40 containers of new cargo have moved across Pakistani ground routes between July 2012 and February 2013. During the same period, about 28,000 containers came through NDN into Afghanistan.

Pakistan has already lost its logistical criticality for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, and its utility as an ally in America's War on Terror has long been suspect. As the 2014 withdrawal deadline approaches, moreover, Pakistan will be tempted into escalating adventurism in its efforts to restore dominance in Kabul, even as it seeks to harness a strategy relying on destabilization and terrorism to contain the Pashtun challenge in its own territories.

The Americans have failed to display much strategic sagacity through their long engagement in Afghanistan, and particularly in the terminal stages running up to their flight from the country. Pakistan has directed a pattern of convoluted mischief towards Afghanistan for over three decades now, in the process, enormously compromising its own security. This game, however, is now being played out at increasingly high risks, as US vulnerabilities to Pakistani blackmail diminish, and patience running dangerously low in Washington.

INDIA
Click for PrintPrint

Andhra Pradesh: Desperate Struggle
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

After steadily losing ground since 2006, the presence of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) in Andhra Pradesh had been reduced to a mere shadow of its past. Nevertheless, it had managed to maintain the shadow. In 2013, however, there were signs that Maoists are desperate to come back into the light.    

In the night of December 5, 2013, members of the CPI-Maoist's Galikonda area committee descended on the Panasalabanda village in G.K.Veedhi mandal (administrative unit) in Visakhapatnam District at around 10:30 pm, woke up a former president of the Vana Samrakshana Samiti (Forest Conservation Committee), Gemmeli Chinna Rao, took him to the nearby Sapparla village, where he was brought before a Praja Court (People’s Court, euphemism for a Kangaroo court). He was awarded the ‘death penalty’ and executed immediately. His family was told to leave the village. Some pamphlets were left beside his body claiming he had been harassing local villagers and denying them benefits of various Government schemes.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Maoists have killed at least 10 civilians in 2013, as against six in 2012. Two Maoists have been killed in the year, as against three in 2012. As a whole, the State has witnessed 13 Maoist-related fatalities in 2013 – 10 civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper and two Maoists – till December 15. There were 10 fatalities in 2012 – six civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper and two Maoists.

Fatalities in LWE/CPI-Maoist Violence in Andhra Pradesh: 2005-2013

Years

Civilians
SFs
LWEs
Total

2005

132
21
167
320

2006

18
7
122
147

2007

24
4
45
73

2008

28
1
37
66

2009

10
0
18
28

2010

17
0
16
33

2011

6
0
4
10

2012

6
1
3
10

2013

10
1
2
13

Total*

251
35
414
700
*Data till December 22, 2013; Source: SATP

In terms of spatial distribution, fatalities in 2013 have been reported from four Districts – Vishakhapatnam (six civilians and one Maoist), Khammam (three civilian and one Policeman) Karimnagar (one civilian) and Nellor (one Maoist). In 2012, fatalities were reported from three districts - Vishakhapatnam (one civilian, one policeman and two Maoists), Khammam (four civilians and one Maoist) and Karimnagar (one civilian).

The Maoists engineered one major (three or more fatalities) incident in 2013, killing three tribals in the Lakkavaram forest area in G.K. Veedhi mandal of Visakhapatnam District on February 19. There were no major incidents in 2012 and 2011.

More significantly, Maoists organised at least four Praja courts in 2013, all in Visakhapatnam District, as against just one in 2012. Similarly, Maoists conducted one swarming attack (involving 50 or more cadres/militia members) in 2013 while there was none in 2012.

Maoists also gave boycott call to the Panchayat (local bodies) elections that were held in three phases in July and tried to disrupt the process. They prevented candidates from filling nominations in 11 panchayats and forced candidates to withdraw nominations in three panchayats. They also snatched nomination papers in six panchayats.

However, other categories of Maoist violence have witnessed a marginal decline. The Maoists were involved in at least three exchange of fire, one blast, one incident of arson, four cases of assault and gave call for bandh (general shutdown strikes) on three occasions in 2013, while in 2012 they were involved in five exchange of fire, one abduction, three blasts, five incidents of arson, one case of assault and six bandh calls. Decline in these kind of violence and increase in other kinds indicate that with a depleted strength the Maoists are using their resources selectively to punch higher than their current strength.

In terms of overall activities, the Maoist activities appear to have been substantially confined to Visakhapatnam and Khammam Districts, while Karimnagar, Warangal Srikakulam, Nalgonda, Mahabubnagar, East and West Godavari Districts remained marginally affected.

The number of arrests and surrenders witnessed a decline. According to SATP data, while a total of 65 Maoists were arrested in Andhra Pradesh in 2013, the number was 99 in 2012. Likewise, the number of surrenders fell to 67 in 2013, against 244 in 2012. The Andhra Police's biggest success in the year was the arrest of Central Committee member Anukul Chandra Naskar alias Goer Chandra Naskar alias Pareshji, in southern Assam’s Cachar District, in a joint operation with Assam Police, on May 8, 2013. Another significant catch was Sudarshan alias Srinivas, a member of the Andhra Orissa Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC), who was wanted in connection with several cases, including the killing of the State's former Home Minister A. Madhava Reddy. Sudarshan carried a reward of INR 2 million on his head. He was arrested on March 23, 2013, from an undisclosed location near Wyra town in Khammam District. Other significant arrests include Marpu Venkataramana alias Jagadish, a State Committee member of the AOBSZC carrying reward money of INR 2 million and Pusa Sivanarayana, in-charge of the Central Committee protection platoon carrying reward money of INR 300,000. The significant surrenders include: Dasaram Srinivas alias JNM Vishwanath ‘deputy commander’ of Malkangiri Division Committee of AOBSZC, (reward money INR 800,000), Sripathi Laxmi, Kalimela ‘area committee member’ in Malkangiri District of Odisha (reward money INR 500,000), Shanigarapu Uma alias Anitha, wife of Gajerla Ashok alias Janardhan, who is the in-charge of ‘military wing’ in Gadchiroli Division (reward money INR 500,000), Korra Sattibabu alias Sathish, an area committee member (reward money INR 400,000) and Arun, who worked for past nine years with Special Guerilla Squad of Maoists, which is also considered to the rank of Area Committee Member (reward money INR 400,000).

The most important development which could have a bearing on the future course of the Maoist insurrection in Andhra Pradesh is, however, the Centre's declaration of the decision to bifurcate the State and create a new State of Telangana. The issue has created tremendous tension with many Andhra Pradesh leaders opposing the move. Significantly, the Maoists have long seen the agitation for a separate Telangana as an opportunity to engineer their own revival in what were once their heartland areas in the Telangana region. Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has argued that the majority of the top Maoist leadership hails from Andhra Pradesh, and particularly Telangana. Giving details of the Maoist leadership during a press conference held at Andhra Pradesh Bhavan in New Delhi on November 18 he said, ‘Of the 11 Central Committee leaders, nine are from Telangana, while two are from Andhra region; at the next rung [of leadership] of 18 members,15 are from Andhra Pradesh of which 14 are Telanganites and one is from Andhra [region]. The entire Andhra-Orissa border is controlled by nine Maoist leaders, of which three are from Telangana, four from Coastal Andhra and two from Rayalaseema Rayalaseema – and hence the Maoists are likely to make a comeback if separate Telangana is created’. However, according to SATP data, out of the 39 Central Committee members (which include Politbureau members) of the CPI-Maoist, 14 have been arrested, three killed, one died of malaria and one surrendered while nothing much is known about the status of the rest 20 members. Any administrative infirmity or political disorders in the existing or bifurcated States would certainly allow the Maoists to recover some ground – even if the gains are transient.

Earlier, the Srikrishna Commission had argued strongly that the Maoists were likely to piggy-back on the Telangana movement to attempt a revival in Andhra Pradesh. The Andhra Pradesh Police, however, rejects this possibility. An internal report presented at the annual Chief Ministers' Conference on Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in Delhi in July 2012 claimed, "In all, there are 340 (Maoist) underground workers from Andhra Pradesh, of them 140 are active on the border," while intense combing operations had pushed the remaining 200 into Chhattisgarh. Police officers assert that the cadre numbers in the State have not changed since. A senior AP Police officer stated, "We have a well-entrenched intelligence network and we reached the 140-figure after doing a headcount. All these people have been identified, we have their names and details." There are eight Districts in undivided Andhra Pradesh affected by the LWE problem. While four of these — Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam — fall in the Telangana region, Srikakulam, Vijaynagram, Visakhapatnam Rural and East Godavari are in the Andhra region.

While the division of the State, per se, may not have much of a bearing on the trajectory of the Maoist movement, the distribution of assets could result in some difficulties. If the fine coordination between the SIB and Greyhounds is disturbed, things can go wrong. Given the weakness of the CPI-Maoist at this juncture - on their own assessment, the movement is in a "critical condition" - it is unlikely that the Maoists would be able to exploit the opportunity that the creation of a separate Telangana may offer. Nevertheless, the Maoists have displayed tremendous resilience over the decades, recovering repeatedly from what have appeared to be terminal reverses. While the capabilities and confidence of the Andhra Pradesh Police are reassuring, the potential for political mischief has often been demonstrated in the past.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
December 16-22, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

5
0
2
7

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

Total (BANGLADESH)

5
0
3
8

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
0
1

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
1
1

Meghalaya

2
0
0
2

Total (INDIA)

3
0
1
4

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
0
0
1

FATA

9
5
34
48

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

1
4
0
5

Punjab

3
1
1
5

Sindh

11
1
3
15

Total (PAKISTAN)

25
11
38
74
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Tourists in Delhi, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Goa are on IM's radar, reveals arrested IM leader Yasin Bhatkal: Arrested Indian Mujahideen (IM) leader Yasin Bhatkal during interrogation has revealed that IM operatives, especially Tehsin Akhtar alias Monu, would target foreign tourists in Rajasthan, Delhi, Maharashtra, Goa and other states. The IM members would also attack Jews, especially tourists from Israel, Yasin claimed. Yasin also claimed the IM was closely associated with al Qaeda and was working to distance itself from Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). In the night of August 28, 2013, Indian security agencies arrested Yasin Bhatkal from Nahar Chowk at Raxaul in the East Champaran District of Bihar, along with an accomplice, identified as Asadullah Akhtar. Times of India, December 23, 2013.

Six new militant groups emerge in Assam, says State Forest and Environment Minister Rockybul Hussain: The State Forest and Environment Minister Rockybul Hussain on December 16 informed the house that six new militant outfits have emerged in the state in the last two years. Five of the six new outfits are from the two autonomous hill districts of Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao while the sixth is a Bengali outfit based in the Bodo Territorial Council area. The minister informed that the new outfits are in addition to six existing active outfits. On the flip side, 13 outfits are engaged in peace talks. Times of India, December 17, 2013.

NE militants to from common platform, says ULFA-I leader Paresh Baruah: 'Commander in chief' of the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I) Paresh Baruah have disclosed that militant groups of the North East region have decided to form a common platform to fight jointly against the "common enemy" and the same is likely to be declared soon. He said that the move in this regard started three to four years back and the final shape has been given recently. "More than 90 percent of the work of forming the common platform has been completed and only the name of the platform has to be declared. We are hopeful of announcing the common platform shortly. Though the name of the platform is yet to be announced, the words 'west-south east Asia' would be included in the name," he added. Nagaland Post, December 17, 2013.

196 ceasefire violations along LoC by Pakistan this year, says Defence Minister A.K. Antony: 'Defence Minister A. K. Antony told the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) on December 18 that there have been 196 ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir this year till December 15 and all were taken up with Pakistan. He said that there were 93 ceasefire violations along the LoC by Pakistan in 2012. Zee news, December 19, 2013.


PAKISTAN

34 militants and nine civilians among 48 persons killed during the week in FATA: Troops on December 19 mounted helicopter and mortar attacks on militants in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where officials said that at least 33 militants and three civilians have been killed.

At least five soldiers were killed and 34 others were wounded when a suicide bomber rammed his explosive-laden car into a military checkpoint in the Mir Ali tehsil (revenue unit) of Miranshah in North Waziristan Agency. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune, December 17-23, 2013.

Federal Government seeks death penalty or life imprisonment for former President General (retired) Pervez Musharraf in high treason case: The Federal Government leveling five charges against former President General (retired) Pervez Musharraf prayed to the Special Court to award the military ruler death penalty or life imprisonment in high treason case. Meanwhile, lawyers for Pervez Musharraf said on December 20 that a treason charge leveled against him was politically motivated and that he would face a "show trial", urging the United Nations (UN) to intervene. The News; Tribune, December 20, 2013.

TTP dismisses the concept of peace talks and vows retaliation against planned military operation: Dismissing the concept of peace talks immediately after Pakistan Government's announcement of using force as a last resort, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on December 17 said they have information that plans are already under way for a military operation, adding that they were ready for battle. "Like previous Governments this one is a puppet of the United States (US). It's powerless and dollar-hungry," said TTP 'spokesman' Shahidullah Shahid. "They should happily launch a military operation against us. We have seen their military operations in the past and would like them to start this long-awaited operation," he said defiantly. Dawn, December 18, 2013.

US Defense Authorisation Bill links Pakistan aid to NATO supply routes: The USD 552 billion Defense Authorisation Bill for 2014 passed by the Congress on December 20 links Pakistan aid to NATO supply routes to Afghanistan. The bill which provides USD 1.5 billion for reimbursements to Pakistan in 2014 calls for stopping reimbursements to Pakistan if ground supply routes to Afghanistan are interrupted. The bill includes a one-year extension for reimbursing Pakistan for supporting the US-led war against terrorists but it reduces the amount available for reimbursing Pakistan from USD 1.65 billion in 2013 to USD 1.5 billion in 2014. The bill seeks a certification from the US defense secretary that Pakistan is taking demonstrable actions against al Qaeda and other militant groups active along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The bill also requires Pakistan to disrupt the conduct of cross-border attacks against US, coalition and Afghan Security Forces in Afghanistan, counter the threat of IEDs and not to persecute religious and ethnic minorities. The bill is now at the White House for President Barack Obama to sign it into law. The White House has already indicated that the President will sign the bill. Dawn, December 21, 2013.


SRI LANKA

President Mahinda Rajapaksa requests Tamil leaders to come together with the Government to find a national solution and achieve reconciliation: President Mahinda Rajapaksa delivering a speech at the final budget debate in Parliament on December 20 made a request to the Tamil leaders of the opposition to come together with the Government to find a national solution and achieve reconciliation. The President requested the leader of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) R. Sampanthan and Chief Minister of Northern Province C.V. Vigneswaran to join hands with the Government to create national harmony. He asked the opposition to correct the Government's path by presenting constructive criticism. However, the President asserted that there will be no room for terrorism to resurface. Colombo Page, December 21, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe.

Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) to a friend.

 

 

 

 

 
Copyright © 2001 SATP. All rights reserved.