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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 45, May 12, 2014

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Talking Terror
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least nine Frontier Corps (FC) personnel were killed and several others were injured when terrorists triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion targeting a Security Forces (SFs) convoy near the Miranshah Road in the Ghulam Khan Tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), on May 8, 2014. No terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the attack, though it is generally believed to have been the handiwork of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Earlier, on February 16, 2014, TTP claimed to have killed 23 FC personnel kidnapped on June 14, 2010, from the Shoonkri Post of Mohmand Agency in FATA. According to reports, TTP Mohmand Agency ‘spokesman’, Omar Khurasani declared that the kidnapped FC personnel were killed as revenge because the Government was continuously killing TTP cadres in different parts of the country, including Karachi (the provincial capital of Sindh), Peshawar (the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, KP) and Swabi District in KP. He declared that, if the Government did not stop killing the TTP supporters, TTP would also continue to kill SF personnel.

Moreover, at least 23 civilians were killed and many others were injured in a bomb explosion in the Pir Wadhai area near the Sabzi Mandi locality in Islamabad on April 9, 2014. Police disclosed that the explosives were planted in a guava box, which exploded at the time of auction. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, though the IED and pattern of attack again suggested a TTP role.

Within hours of the May 8 attack, Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Raheel Sharif and Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif held a meeting to discuss the security situation. An unnamed senior military official later asserted, “The Army would respond to the provocation by terrorists as terrorism and peace talks cannot go hand in hand. The attack is a clear act of provocation and is a serious blow to the peace process. This will have serious repercussions.”

Indeed, peace talks with TTP have failed to curtail terrorist activities across the country. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), a total of 460 fatalities, including 223 terrorists, 190 civilians and 47 SF personnel, were reported from across the country in 128 incidents of killing since March 26, 2014, when the talks between the representatives of the Government and the TTP were initiated. The period has witnessed a total of 33 major incidents (each involving three or more killings). This was despite a month-long ‘unilateral ceasefire’ declared by the TTP on March 1, which was later extended till April 10. The ceasefire ended thereafter, with TTP alleging that there was no positive response from the Government. TTP ‘central spokesperson’ Shahidullah Shahid later declared, on April 16, that the central council of TTP would not extend the ceasefire, adding, however, “The TTP will not abstain from taking any steps if the Government makes some progress.” During the ceasefire period, 340 persons were killed in terrorist violence, including 191 civilians, 108 terrorists and 41 SF personnel. In the worst attack during this phase, on March 14, 2014, 11 persons were killed and another 45 were injured in a suicide attack targeting the Police in the Sarband area of Peshawar. On the same day, at least 10 persons, including nine civilians and one trooper, were killed and another 35 were injured, in a bomb explosion targeting an FC vehicle in the Science College Chowk area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. A newly formed TTP splinter group, Ahrar-ul-Hind (AH, liberators of India or victors of India) claimed responsibility for both incidents. Umar Qasmi, 'chief' of AH, claiming responsibility for the attack, declared, “We don't abide by these talks and will continue to stage attacks." The group has so far claimed responsibility for three such attacks in which 32 people were killed and another 105 were injured since January 2014.

Recurrent violence amidst talks appears primarily due to intense division within the TTP itself. This rift began soon after the death of its founder Baitullah Meshud (killed in a US drone attack on August 5, 2009). Baitullah Mehsud’s clansman and deputy, Hakimullah Mehsud (killed in a drone attack on November 1, 2013), was appointed unanimously as the new leader by a 42-member shura (council), but his authority was challenged by Baitullah Mehsud’s spokesman Waliur Rehman Mehsud (killed in a drone attack on May 23, 2013), who was made TTP’s ‘deputy chief’ after a brief power struggle.

After the killing of these leaders, however, Khan Saeed alias Sajna came to head the Waliur Rehman group, and Fazlullah (also known as Mullah Radio, the leader of Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) or Swat Taliban) came to lead the ‘united’ TTP, which follows Hakimullah's line. The Hakimullah group is believed to be the main stakeholder in the peace-talk.

Significantly, TTP’s decision to initiate peace talks divided the groups further, and factions of TTP have started fighting each other. Between April 6 and May 8, 2014, at least 80 terrorists have been killed and an unspecified number of others were injured (the exact figure may increase as there was erratic reporting and movement of Journalists in conflict areas is severely restricted) as two factions of TTP, one led by Shehryar Mehsud, the ‘chief’ of 'united TTP' in South Waziristan Agency (SWA), and another led by Sajna, clashed in the Shawal area of NWA in FATA. The rival factions have accused each other of grabbing power in order to control South Waziristan’s Mehsud tribal area. Sajna had been considered the right hand man of Waliur Rehman, whereas Shehryar was a confidante of Hakimullah Mehsud.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan on February 15, 2014, observed, “There are 43 militant groups operating under the umbrella of TTP of which 14 to 18 fall in the list of major factions and the remaining considered to be the smaller groups, while there are groups in TTP amalgam which are against the peace dialogue. Major groups of TTP are supporting dialogue but there are few elements who do not want peace.”

In fact, about 130 major and minor terrorist groups, some of which have splintered off the TTP, operate in and from a 27,220 square kilometers area of FATA, according to Ashraf Ali, President of the FATA Research Centre, an Islamabad-based think tank. Ali had argued, on December 20, 2011, “The TTP has not been able to forge a united command ever since it lost its influential commander, Baitullah Mehsud, in an air strike in August 5, 2009. The TTP is plagued by a leadership crisis as neither its incumbent head Hakimullah Mehsud – too immature to lead – nor Maulvi Faqir, a leading 'commander' from Bajaur Agency, is in a position to keep it united.”

There was an inevitable futility about the aborted talks, which the Government is desperately trying to restore. With fragmented terrorist formations, each trying to outbid the other in their extremism and terrorist excesses, and with scores of terrorist groups mushrooming over the years, many of them with state support, as well as support from powerful political actors, Pakistan can receive little respite from the relentless terror that engulfs the country.

INDIA
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Maoists: Southern Incursions
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Moving a step further towards consolidation of Left Wing Extremist (LWE) groups in India, the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist - Naxalbari (CPI-ML-Naxalbari) jointly announced their merger on May 1, 2014. The new party retained the name Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist). The joint statement announcing the merger was made by Mupalla Laxman Rao alias Ganapathy, general secretary CPI-Maoist and Ajith, secretary, CPI-ML-Naxalbari, and was issued to the media by Abhay and Krantipriya, the spokespersons of the respective outfits.

CPI-ML- Naxalbari has limited pockets of influence in Kerala, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Ajith is believed to be the pen name of Kannamballi Murali, a Malayali, who has links with the international Maoist movement, and is the all-India secretary of the CPI-ML-Naxalbari. Hailing from Ernakulam in Kerala State, Murali was a student at the Regional Engineering College, Kozhikode. He left College before completing the course. After the merger, Murali is likely to be inducted into the Central Committee (CC) of CPI-Maoist.

CPI-ML-Naxalbari’s origin can be traced back to the political ideas and ideology of S.A. Rauf, a prominent Naxalite leader from Andhra Pradesh who was connected with the movement since its earliest phase. He first joined the All India Coordination Committee of Revolutionaries (AICCR), the precursor of the Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist (CPI-ML), which led the Naxalite movement under the leadership of Charu Mazumdar from late 1967. When CPI-ML was formed on April 22, 1969, he remained a prominent presence in the revolutionary Party. When CPI-ML split in 1972, he supported the Central Organizing Committee and CPI-ML, and was a member of the Andhra Pradesh Provincial Committee. In 1977, he left CPI-ML, opposing the August Resolution, which sought to advocate the 'mass line' and reject Charu Mazumdar's 'annihilation line', to form another revolutionary party in Andhra Pradesh, CPI-ML (Rauf). In 1979, Rauf along with CPI (ML) Kerala State Committee, became a part of the launching of the Central Reorganizing Committee (CPI-ML-CRC). However, differences developed with the 'revisionist theory'of the General Secretary of CPI-ML-CRC, K. Venu, and Rauf broke away to form CPI-ML-Red Flag in 1987. In 1991, the CRC was disbanded and the Kerala Communist Party (KCP) and Maharashtra Communist Party (MCP), which survived the disbanding, merged to form the Maoist Unity Centre (MUC) in 1997. In 1998 Rauf broke away from the Red Flag faction with his supporters, and in 1999 MUC merged with the Rauf faction to establish CPI-ML-Naxalbari under his leadership. Rauf worked as the General Secretary of CPI-ML-Naxalbari till 2008, after which the mantle of leadership fell on Kannamballi Murali aka Ajith.

The merger of CPI-ML-Naxalbari and CPI-Maoist has been on the cards for several years, as ideological differences between the two groups have faded away. Further, according to an internal document of the People’s War Group (PWG) (one of the constituent formations of CPI-Maoist, at the second meeting of the PWG CC held in November-December 2002, the CC noted that cadres from the CPI-ML-Naxalbari had quit and joined the ranks of PW in ‘sizeable numbers.’  The merger would now give CPI-Maoist further access to CPI-ML-Naxalbari underground/ over ground networks.    

In Kerala, the CPI-ML-Naxalbari is believed to be working through its front organizations, such as Ayyankali Pada and Porattam. Ayyankali Pada had taken the Palakkad collector, W.R. Reddy, hostage at the collectorate in 1996. Porattam had led the attacks on the World Bank Project Office at Kothamangalam in 2000; on the Coca Cola outlet in Kochi in 2003; and on the Citi Bank branch at Kochi in 2004. CPI-ML-Naxalbari cadres had attacked the NABARD offices in Kannur and Kalpetta in 2008. The Viplava Sthreevadi Prasnthanam, Viplava Vidyarthi Prasthanam and Njattuvela Samskarika Samithi are the other formations believed to be associated with CPI-ML-Naxalbari.

Given the prevailing situation, the CPI-ML-Naxalbari and CPI-Maoist merger can have significant impact for the Maoist movement in the tri-junction area of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. CPI-Maoist has been making continuous efforts towards creating a base in the area, and while they have not perpetrated any large scale violence in the area, they have been visible with an increasing frequency and there is significant evidence of their non-violent mobilisation. Violence and intimidation, however, have not been altogether lacking. Thus, for instance, on April 24, 2014, a five-member CPI-Maoist squad threatened a traffic Police official, Pramod Bhaskaran, and his mother, at their house in Mananthavadi in the Wayanad District of Kerala, accusing Bhaskaran of ‘spying’ activity. They also pasted a poster on the wall of his residence and set ablaze a motorcycle kept near the house. Earlier on April 12, 2014, security had been tightened in the Udupi District of Karnataka after a banner and six pamphlets with messages by Maoists were found at Mala village in the Karkala Rural Police Station limits. Further, a group of 15 Maoists set ablaze a van belonging to a former Gram Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution) member, identified as Ramchandra Bhatt, at Kuthlur village on the fringes of Kudremukh National Park in Chickmagalur District of Karnataka on November 9, 2013. The Police said the Maoists did this in protest against what they termed as forcible eviction of tribals from the National Park area. Commenting on the incident Prathap Reddy, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Western Range asserted that Bhatt was one of the activists who tried to convince people in the National Park area to accept the rehabilitation package of the State Government.

Confirming the Maoist presence in the tri-junction area, an internal communication of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had noted, in November 2013, that the presence and movement of Maoist groups had been noticed on over two dozen occasions in the Districts of Malappuram, Wayanad and Kannur in Kerala and Mysore, Kodagu, Udupi, Chikmagalur and Shimoga in Karnataka. Though adjoining areas of Tamil Nadu had not recorded any movement of armed Naxal cadres, activities of front organisations had increased distinctively in Erode District, the UMHA observed, adding, in a six-page letter sent to 13 States, "The party (CPI-Maoist) is trying to develop the tri-junction of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu as a suitable operational base." In another communication, UMHA sounded a warning that armed CPI-Maoist cadres had earlier visited various Adivasi (tribal) colonies of Kannur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram and Palakkad at least 50 times.

In the tri-junction of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the Maoists function under the Western Ghats Special Zonal Committee (WGSZC). According to an article written by an underground Kerala Maoist leader Rupesh in ‘Mathrubhumi’ weekly in 2013, the WGSZC was formed to target Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in view of the 'exploitation faced by scores of tribals, Scheduled Caste people, landless poor farmers' in these areas, as against the booming economic prospects of nearby cities such as Erode, Coimbatore, Palakkad, Kochi, Kozhikode and Mangalore. The Maoist move is said to be part of an ambitious plan to extend the purported Red Corridor from Jharkhand to Wayanad.

Increasing Maoist activities have recently been noticed in Kerala, where the rebels' presence has been identified in regions that come under 31 Police Stations limits in the Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Palakkad and Thrissur Districts. The Kerala Police recently issued lookout notices for 11 Maoists. Though the Maoists claim that stepping into Kerala was part of their agenda to establish their grip on the Western Ghats area, the Police claim that it was the no-holds-barred effort of the Karnataka Anti-Naxal Force that made the armed group 'retreat' into Kerala. The Kerala Police believe that 11 Maoist cadres, including four women, are active in the Maoist gang operating in the State, with a considerable number of members currently in sleeping modules as well. Of the 11, six are from the Malnad region of Karnataka, - Vikram Gowda, Latha, Kanya alias Kanyakumari, Sundari alias Geetha, Mahesh alias Jayanna and A.S. Suresh. The six are believed to have been involved in many criminal cases in Karnataka, including murder, and Vikram Gowda has led the movement in Malnad.

Sensing the urgency of the situation, the Kerala State Government, on February 21, 2014, directed the Police Department to fortify 16 Police Stations in north Kerala on ‘a war footing.’ The Government ordered 300 armed Policemen to the region to provide ‘perimeter defence and support’ to Thunderbolts Kerala, the special weapons and tactics team of the State Police, which was spearheading ‘anti-Naxal operations’ there. The Thunderbolt Commandos however, feel that a clear political mandate for operations is yet to be given. Putta Vimaladitya, Wayanad SP, who is also leading the anti-terror operations in the State, argued, “We have not yet received a shoot-at-sight order from the Government. Anti-Maoist operation in the State is being carried out at present without such an order.” Effective operations, the Forces feel, are not possible in the absence of such an executive cover.

Maoist efforts to secure a foothold in the tri-junction of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may also be fed by the increasing and consistent pressure exerted by Security Forces (SFs) in other theatres in areas of traditional Maoist dominance. Nevertheless, past efforts to establish themselves in the Southern States have met with little success, though this has not deterred them from trying.

The significance of the recent merger of the CPI-ML-Naxalbari and CPI-Maoist, coming after nearly ten years of the formation of the latter, must not be underestimated. It constitutes a further step forward in the consolidation of LWE extremists groups, in a process in which the formation of CPI-Maoist was itself a major advance that signalled a substantial escalation in LWE operations. The Andhra Pradesh based CPI-ML People’s War (PW) and the Bihar based Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCCI) had, on September 21, 2004, merged to form CPI-Maoist. The Revolutionary Communist Centre of India - Maoist, operating in Punjab, had earlier united with the then Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) to form the MCCI in 2003. The Bihar-based Party Unity (PU) had merged in 1998 with the CPI-ML People’s War, which was active in Andhra Pradesh.

The Maoists themselves acknowledge that their movement is currently in a ‘critical condition’. Nevertheless, their efforts at a 'countrywide revival' continue, and the recent merger highlights their determination to restore the strength of the movement. As an unnamed senior Police officer from Kerala noted in a media report, it would be stupid to wait for some untoward incidents to swing into action against the Maoists in the tri-junction area. Pre-emptive action in the early stages of Maoist intervention in this region, when the organisation is at its most vulnerable and susceptible to penetration, will prove far more effective than later action to contain an escalating trend in violence.

NEPAL
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Rift within a Rift
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On April 28, 2014, two Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) cadres loyal to Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda were seriously injured after cadres loyal to former Prime Minister and former Vice-Chairman Dr. Baburam Bhattarai exchanged blows at the opening ceremony of the Rasuwa District Convention, following a heated debate over the duration of the political event. Cadres from remote areas had demanded that the convention be concluded on the day itself, arguing that they did not have enough money for overnight accommodation.

Earlier, on January 1, 2014, four cadres of UCPN-M were injured in a factional clash in Parsa District, while protesting the 'unilateral' decision of the party leadership in the selection of candidates for Constituent Assembly (CA) members under the Proportional Representation (PR) system.

With the deepening intra-party rift among factions led by Dahal and Bhattarai, cadres loyal to the two blocs held separate District Conventions in Rautahat District on April 29, 2014. While those loyal to Bhattarai held their function at Dharahari Village Development Committee (VDC), Dahal's supporters organized a parallel Convention at the Gedahiguthi VDC in the District. Interestingly, the organizers of both Conventions claimed their event to be the official one.

Earlier, on April 26, 2014, addressing the Kathmandu District Convention of the UCPN-M, Dahal declared, “I want to reform the UCPN-M. I urge leaders to quit the party if they have joined the party with the sole objective of holding coveted posts.” Dahal also asserted that factionalism in the party should come to an end. Meanwhile, Bhattarai has been arguing that the party needs new structures, ideology and leadership, to institutionalize the achievements of the past. Another senior leader, Narayankaji Shrestha, argued that the Party had lost its support base after it backtracked from nationalist agendas.

Indeed, District Conventions, which are precursors to the party’s National Convention, could not be held in several Districts, as one contender was completely opposed to the other. Although several Districts, prominently including Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Morang, Rukum, Baglung, Kailali, Sindhupalchowk, Nuwakot and Dhading, among others, elected their representatives for the National Convention, they were unable to elect office bearers due to factional disputes.

Unsurprisingly, the five day long National Convention of the UCPN-M, held at Biratnagar in Morang District between May 2 and May 6, 2014, with the objective of strengthening Party organizations, witnessed tensions and divisions among rival factions. Addressing the Convention on May 2, 2014, Dahal claimed, "Some of them (members) joined the party with the hope of becoming CA member and Minister. We had to welcome them by sprinkling red vermillion powder instead of offering Tika due to lack of time. We had thought that there might be a wave of deserting the party. It's been four-five months; apart from one or two there is no such wave."

Meanwhile, addressing the Convention on the same day, Bhattarai said, "We have initiated a serious debate once again… Working guidelines, organizations and leadership of yesterday are not enough. It is necessary to transform the Party and its organizations in order to achieve the new tasks of revolution." Narayankaji Shrestha also underlined the need for transformation of the Party. Most party leaders present at the Convention came down heavily against Chairman Dahal's working style. Major issues of dispute included power-sharing in the Central Committee (CC), among office bearers, and in other Party Committees; the system and principles of leadership; handover of charge and ways of forming Party organization in line with the Party’s political line; system of addressing differing views within the party and method of registering dissent in the Party; system of cultivating party ideology compatible with the changed context; and ways of defining the Party´s political line.

Indeed, to settle the party’s ideological and leadership issues, on May 3, 2014, Bhattarai demanded that the party should hold a General Convention at the earliest, claiming, "In totality, Dahal´s document is a continuity of the older one. It can’t do away with the crisis facing the party in an objective way. Therefore, it has become urgent to start healthy debates on broader issues, including the party’s ideology, its political line, organization, leadership and working style." The ‘Dahal Document’ was tabled at the National Convention, and emphasised the consolidation of communist parties, and the formation of a "powerful communist centre", and sought to end "crippling factionalism".

Remarkably, on May 6, 2014, Dahal was re-elected party Chairman, even as Bhattarai again refused to remain in the Party’s newly formed CC. Addressing a closed session at the Convention that lasted for around 10 minutes on May 6, 2014, Bhattarai declared, “The Party turned intolerant toward different views in the Party. I prefer to work on research and will not stay in the CC. We will support the Party from outside, but will not occupy Central Committee posts.” Along with Bhattarai, 16 leaders who supported him, also walked out of the closed session. Leaders of Bhattarai's panel claimed that their voices were ignored by Party Chair Dahal in the Convention, and argued that Dahal acted highhandedly in the selection of CC members. Leaders close to Bhattarai put forth two major conditions for their entry into the CC, including a date for the Party’s General Convention and intra-party freedom to openly advocate their political agenda at Party fora.

The intra-party dispute persisted even as the National Convention concluded on May 6, 2014. Immediately thereafter, at the first CC meeting, Narayankaji Shrestha was nominated as vice-chairman and Posta Bahadur Bogati as general secretary of the Party. Both Bogati and Shrestha have been supportive of Dahal. Unsurprisingly, the rift in the Party reached tipping point after Bhattarai rejected the newly announced CC, accusing Dahal of preparing the list of members unilaterally and excluding members from his faction.

On May 7, 2014, a day after the conclusion of the Party’s National Convention, while speaking at the release of the Party’s quarterly mouthpiece, Prasthan, Dahal attacked Bhattarai, declaring, “I promoted Bhattarai to the Party’s highest committee on the assumption that the Party would benefit from his intellectual caliber. But I have been deceived. Even before the Constituent Assembly elections, Bhattarai regarded me as ‘a leader of leaders’. It was tough to downsize the Central Committee to 99 members from 266. The Party decided to form a 151-member Central Committee only to address Bhattarai’s grievances. But he opted to stay out of the CC.”

Expectedly, the Bhattarai faction’s dramatic moves have fuelled speculation that the former rebel party may head toward another vertical split. An earlier division had occurred after a three-day National Convention in 2012 (June 16 to June 18), when the then Vice-President of UCPN-M, Mohan Baidya aka Kiran, after nearly a year of functioning as a hardline ‘party within the party’, abandoned the organisation on June 19, 2012, to create a new political entity, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist-Baidya (CPN-Maoist-Baidya). The hard-line National Convention, attended by around 2,000 cadres, declared Baidya the Chairman of the new formation, with Ram Bahadur Thapa as its General Secretary, Chandra Prakash Gajurel its Secretary and Netra Bikram Chand and Dev Gurung, Politburo members.

Ominously, the CPN-Maoist (the parent party of the present UCPN-M) which had emerged as the largest party in the last CA elections held in 2008, securing 229 seats, got only 80 seats in the 601-member CA in the second CA elections held on November 19, 2013.

Severely embarrassed by the humiliating debacle in the 2013 elections, Prachanda even accused the state machinery and the Election Commission (EC) of 'systematically rigging' the polls with the intent to marginalize the UCPN-M in the race for power. Bhattarai, however, took a different view on the poll results and attributed the Party's poor performance to internal weaknesses and 'deviousness' that had undermined the leadership and organizational rank and file. He also demanded that Party Chairman Dahal take moral responsibility for the poll debacle and quit his post. Prachanda rebuffed the call, contending that it was not he alone who should take the moral responsibility for the defeat, but that blame should be apportioned to all who were at the helm of Party affairs.

Meanwhile, leaders from the Bhattarai faction have assured people that they were striving for the transformation of the party and did not intend to create any new organization. Top Bahadur Raymajhi, a party leader close to Bhattarai, on May 8, 2014, thus stated, “The rumors regarding a Party split have been spread by our enemies to distort our agenda of reforming the Party. We will continue to fight to keep the Party unity intact.” 

The rift between the Dahal and Bhattarai factions has deepened after the latter boycotted the entire process of nominating CC members during the closed session of the Convention. The Biratnagar Convention, which was intended to strengthen the Party, has only escalated tensions and widened the gap between the factions. Further, the infighting within the UCPN-M undermines the process of drafting the Constitution. Madhav Kumar Nepal, the leader of the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) thus observed, on May 8, 2014 said “The dispute in UCPN-M was over the party’s leadership. It is not good to bring up irrelevant matters during the Constitution writing process.”

As things stand, the UCPN-M's problems can only be compounded further if it fails to reform and democratize from within, jeopardizing what remains a fragile and incipient democratic process in the country.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
May 5-11, 2014

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Assam

11
0
0
11

Jammu and Kashmir

1
0
3
4

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

2
0
0
2

Maharashtra

0
7
0
7

Total (INDIA)

14
7
3
24

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

2
3
10
15

FATA

5
11
21
37

KP

4
1
9
14

Punjab

1
0
0
1

Sindh

21
0
0
21

Total (PAKISTAN)

33
15
40
88
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

'We don't want to let Bangladesh soil to be used by anyone for any anti-social, terrorist or any kind of subversive act', asserts Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed on May 8 said "We don't want to let Bangladesh soil to be used by anyone for any anti-social, terrorist or any kind of subversive act. For this we're taking adequate steps". Mentioning that Bangladesh was once known as a country of natural disasters, terrorism, militancy, Hasina said now Bangladesh has become a role model of development, the country is moving ahead and will continue to move. The Independent, May 9, 2014.


INDIA

Israel seeks security for its citizens in India, says report: Israel has sought security for its citizens and assets in India during the months of May and June according to senior intelligence sources. The request came in view of the festival season which sees a large amount of Israeli arrivals in India. The Israelis fear threats from Al Qaeda and its affiliated organisations AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb), AQAP (Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula), Al-Nasr Al Sharia, which have carried out terrorist attacks in Africa against Israeli citizens. Israel has sought additional security at Jewish centres such as synagogues. India Today, May 8, 2014.

Coastal Security Group steps up vigil in Tamil Nadu after Infiltration alert: A security system has been put in place and Coastal Security Group (CSG) deployed off Rameswaram to completely block infiltration through sea. Jyoti Basu, in-charge of CSG, Rameswaram said, "Coastal Security Group has been deployed in the area after police received information that ISI agents could infiltrate India from Sri lanka via Palk Straits. A new security system has been put in place to totally prevent infiltration.". Zee News, May 6, 2014.

'Chennai train IEDs similar to Patna bombs', says report: A forensic examination of the remains of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) collected from the two coaches of Bangalore-Guwahati Express have revealed that the explosives were similar to the Patna (Bihar) bombs, which exploded on October 27, 2013. While the explosives used in the train were put in singular elbow-pipes, in Patna each IED was made of at least two such pipes. In both the incidents, analogue clocks were used as timers, a senior official said. Financial Express, May 8, 2014.

Sri Lanka and Maldives under scanner as transit point for terror: Sri Lanka and Maldives are under the scanner of India's security establishment as sources and transit points for Pakistan-supported terror elements who may be used to target vital installations in southern India. Sources here said both countries were well aware of the emerging developments and have been coordinating more carefully in recent times. Maldives is a place of particular concern because of the radical elements, many of whom got indoctrinated in Pakistan. Times of India, May 8, 2014.

Chorus for seizure of illegal arms post BTAD violence in the region, says report: Condemning the killing of innocent villagers in Bodoland Territorial Areas District (BTAD), people from different walks of life have advocated seizure of illegal arms in the region. Even Assam governor JB Patnaik has asked the State Government to seize illegal arms in the BTAD region. On May 3, the governor said house-to-house search should be conducted to bring an end to this problem. A senior police official said more than 100 illegal arms have been seized in BTAD during the time of elections. Times of India, May 5, 2014.

806 kilogrammes of explosives, 130 IEDs found during poll process: Over 806 kilogrammes of explosives and 130 improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been found by security forces from Naxal (Left Wing Extremism) violence-hit areas since the announcement of Lok Sabha polls on March 5. The maximum of these IEDs and ammunition, meant for use against security forces and poll officials, have been recovered by paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) from Naxal-affected areas of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha. Zee News, May 5, 2014.

Pakistan's spy agency ISI planning to strike on Kochi and Visakhapatnam Naval base, say Tamil Nadu Police: The Tamil Nadu Police on May 5 told at a metropolitan magistrate court in Egmore, Chennai that suspected Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agent Sakir Hussian, a Sri Lankan national, arrested from Chennai was working on a plan to sabotage the Indian Navy bases at Kochi and Visakhapatnam. Deccan Chronicle, May 6, 2014.


NEPAL

Timely constitution possible if parties work in tandem, says Prime Minister Sushil Koirala: On May 9, Prime Minister (PM) Sushil Koirala said the country will surely get a much-awaited constitution on time, provided all concerned work in tandem. "Constitution can be promulgated on time, with cooperation from all political parties and the public. I urge people and the parties with different ideologies to play a constructive role for the same," he urged, adding that only timely promulgation of the constitution can end the protracted politico-constitutional crisis. Hindustan Times, May 10, 2014.

TRC and CED passed by Parliamnet for greater national unity, says Prime Minister Sushil Koirala: Prime Minister (PM) Sushil Koirala on May 8 said that the Transitional Justice Bill passed on April 25, 2014 by Parliament for the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (CED) is aimed at greater national unity and reconciliation as envisaged in the peace accord and has not deviated from international standards. "Nepal´s commitment to human rights is total and unflinching. It needs to be acknowledged that a country, which is at the bottom rung of the development ladder, has chosen to become party to almost all human rights instruments," Koirala said. My Republica, May 9, 2014.

Tarai armed outfits tamed, says Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Bamdev Gautam: On May 8, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Bamdev Gautam has claimed that the government has contained the criminal activities of armed outfit's operating in Tarai and Eastern Hills. Minister Gautam said that the number of armed outfit's active in the two regions has come down "significantly" and that security agencies are arresting the heads of such armed groups. eKantipur, May 9, 2014.


PAKISTAN

21 militants and 11 SFs among 37 persons killed during the week in FATA: An Improvised Explosive Device (IED) exploded on May 8 killing at least nine Frontier Corps (FC) personnel and injuring several others near the Miranshah road in Ghulam Khan Tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Five more militants were killed and three injured as clashes between two factions of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued in Shawal area of NWA on May 7.

At least 13 militants were killed as infighting between rival TTP groups restarted in Shawal tehsil NWA on May 6. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia; The Nation; Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, May 6-12, 2014.

TTP says the group is serious in pursuing peace-talks with Government: A senior leader and member of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Political Shura, Azam Tariq Mehsud, said on May 12 that his group is still serious in pursuing peace talks with the Government which, according to a TTP intermediary, is maintaining a 'surprising silence' on the matter. "The date and venue for a second face-to-face meeting will be decided only when the Government and the Army come on the same page," Azam Tariq Mehsud said. However, he claimed that the Army was not serious in pursuing peace talks. Tribune, May 12, 2014.

Destroy terrorist sanctuaries in North Waziristan Agency, US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns tells Islamabad: United States (US) Deputy Secretary of State William Burns during his meeting with the civil and military leadership on May 9 to discuss regional security situation and exchange views on matters of bilateral interest said that Pakistani should "destroy terrorist sanctuaries located in North Waziristan and complete the operation before installation of the new political administration in Kabul". Daily Times May 10, 2014.

'Militant wings of political parties present in Karachi', says Karachi Police Chief Shahid Hayat: Karachi Police Chief Shahid Hayyat on May 9 said that militant wings of political parties are present in Karachi. He said that the Supreme Court had also mentioned involvement of political parties in terrorism.. The News, May 10, 2014.

Talks or no talks, bloodshed by militants has to stop, says Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and CoAS General Raheel Sharif unanimously: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Raheel Sharif on May 8 stressed that irrespective of whether peace talks are held or not, violence and bloodshed by militants must stop. General Sharif said that the recent attacks on the Security Forces are not likely to stop unless some hostile groups of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are neutralised. Amid no let-up in the terror attacks, the military establishment has reportedly told Nawaz Sharif that the use of force against the miscreants has become unavoidable. Daily Times, May 9, 2014.

TTP 'chief' Mullah Fazlullah sacks Sajna from South Waziristan Agency 'chief': Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 'chief' Mullah Fazlullah on May 8 sacked Khan Said alias Sajna as ameer (chief) of South Waziristan Agency (Federally Administered Tribal Areas). Umar Khurasani would command the movement in both North and South Waziristan Agencies. Hakimullah Mehsud's group 'spokesman' Daud Mehsud said that TTP's 'vice-ameer' Shaikh Khalid Haqqani has been made ameer of South Waziristan Agency. Daud Mehsud said that they respect decisions taken by the Mullah Fazlullah. The News, May 9, 2014.

Talks still 'best option' to end terrorism, says Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, while talking to British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) Urdu, on May 5 said that he is still hopeful that talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) can succeed, despite the militants ending a ceasefire, and that talks offered the "best option" of ending the country's long conflict. He said that he believed his talks strategy could "bring peace without any further bloodshed". "If we can make this process somehow successful, I think it will be the best option." Daily Times, May 6, 2014.

27 missing persons traced, claims Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances: The two member Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, headed by retired Justice Javed Iqbal and appointed by the Supreme Court, on May 5 claimed that it had resolved 27 missing person cases last month, saying that most of these persons were found detained at various "internment centres" in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The figures released by the Commission revealed that the number of missing persons had been increasing constantly, 1,846 cases had come to light since January 1, 2011, the day the commission started its work. Dawn, May 6, 2014.


SRI LANKA

India was instrumental in creating PCs, says outgoing Consul General of India Venkadasalam Mahalingam: The outgoing Consul General of India, Venkadasalam Mahalingam during his farewell speech in Jaffna District on May 6 said that India was instrumental in creating the Provincial Councils (PCs) in Sri Lanka. He further said that nobody can deny India's instrumental role in creating the Northern Province (NP) in the country which has an elected Chief Minister and other Ministers holding different portfolios. Daily Mirror, May 7, 2014.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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