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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 45, May 12, 2014
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Talking
Terror
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
At least
nine Frontier Corps (FC) personnel were killed and several
others were injured when terrorists triggered an Improvised
Explosive Device (IED) explosion targeting a Security
Forces (SFs) convoy near the Miranshah Road in the Ghulam
Khan Tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan
Agency (NWA) in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA), on May 8, 2014. No terrorist group has claimed
responsibility for the attack, though it is generally
believed to have been the handiwork of the Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP).
Earlier,
on February 16, 2014, TTP claimed to have killed 23 FC
personnel kidnapped on June 14, 2010, from the Shoonkri
Post of Mohmand Agency in FATA. According to reports,
TTP Mohmand Agency ‘spokesman’, Omar Khurasani declared
that the kidnapped FC personnel were killed as revenge
because the Government was continuously killing TTP cadres
in different parts of the country, including Karachi (the
provincial capital of Sindh), Peshawar (the provincial
capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, KP) and Swabi District
in KP. He declared that, if the Government did not stop
killing the TTP supporters, TTP would also continue to
kill SF personnel.
Moreover,
at least 23 civilians were killed and many others were
injured in a bomb explosion in the Pir Wadhai area near
the Sabzi Mandi locality in Islamabad on April 9, 2014.
Police disclosed that the explosives were planted in a
guava box, which exploded at the time of auction. No group
has claimed responsibility for the attack, though the
IED and pattern of attack again suggested a TTP role.
Within
hours of the May 8 attack, Chief of Army Staff (CoAS)
General Raheel Sharif and Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif
held a meeting to discuss the security situation. An unnamed
senior military official later asserted, “The Army would
respond to the provocation by terrorists as terrorism
and peace talks cannot go hand in hand. The attack is
a clear act of provocation and is a serious blow to the
peace process. This will have serious repercussions.”
Indeed,
peace talks with TTP have failed to curtail terrorist
activities across the country. According to partial data
compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP),
a total of 460 fatalities, including 223 terrorists, 190
civilians and 47 SF personnel, were reported from across
the country in 128 incidents of killing since March 26,
2014, when the talks between the representatives
of the Government and the TTP were initiated. The period
has witnessed a total of 33 major incidents (each involving
three or more killings). This was despite a month-long
‘unilateral ceasefire’ declared by the TTP on March 1,
which was later extended till April 10. The ceasefire
ended thereafter, with TTP alleging that there was no
positive response from the Government. TTP ‘central spokesperson’
Shahidullah Shahid later declared, on April 16, that the
central council of TTP would not extend the ceasefire,
adding, however, “The TTP will not abstain from taking
any steps if the Government makes some progress.” During
the ceasefire period, 340 persons were killed in terrorist
violence, including 191 civilians, 108 terrorists and
41 SF personnel. In the worst attack during this phase,
on March 14, 2014, 11 persons were killed and another
45 were injured in a suicide attack targeting the Police
in the Sarband area of Peshawar. On the same day, at least
10 persons, including nine civilians and one trooper,
were killed and another 35 were injured, in a bomb explosion
targeting an FC vehicle in the Science College Chowk area
of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. A newly
formed TTP splinter group, Ahrar-ul-Hind (AH, liberators
of India or victors of India) claimed responsibility for
both incidents. Umar Qasmi, 'chief' of AH, claiming responsibility
for the attack, declared, “We don't abide by these talks
and will continue to stage attacks." The group has
so far claimed responsibility for three such attacks in
which 32 people were killed and another 105 were injured
since January 2014.
Recurrent
violence amidst talks appears primarily due to intense
division within the TTP itself. This rift began soon after
the death of its founder Baitullah Meshud (killed in a
US drone attack on August 5, 2009). Baitullah Mehsud’s
clansman and deputy, Hakimullah Mehsud (killed in a drone
attack on November 1, 2013), was appointed unanimously
as the new leader by a 42-member shura (council),
but his authority was challenged by Baitullah Mehsud’s
spokesman Waliur Rehman Mehsud (killed in a drone attack
on May 23, 2013), who was made TTP’s ‘deputy chief’ after
a brief power struggle.
After the
killing of these leaders, however, Khan Saeed alias
Sajna came to head the Waliur Rehman group, and Fazlullah
(also known as Mullah Radio, the leader of Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
(TNSM)
or Swat Taliban) came to lead the ‘united’ TTP, which
follows Hakimullah's line. The Hakimullah group is believed
to be the main stakeholder in the peace-talk.
Significantly,
TTP’s decision to initiate peace talks divided the groups
further, and factions of TTP have started fighting each
other. Between April 6 and May 8, 2014, at least 80 terrorists
have been killed and an unspecified number of others were
injured (the exact figure may increase as there was erratic
reporting and movement of Journalists in conflict areas
is severely restricted) as two factions of TTP, one led
by Shehryar Mehsud, the ‘chief’ of 'united TTP' in South
Waziristan Agency (SWA), and another led by Sajna, clashed
in the Shawal area of NWA in FATA. The rival factions
have accused each other of grabbing power in order to
control South Waziristan’s Mehsud tribal area. Sajna had
been considered the right hand man of Waliur Rehman, whereas
Shehryar was a confidante of Hakimullah Mehsud.
Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan on February 15,
2014, observed, “There are 43 militant groups operating
under the umbrella of TTP of which 14 to 18 fall in the
list of major factions and the remaining considered to
be the smaller groups, while there are groups in TTP amalgam
which are against the peace dialogue. Major groups of
TTP are supporting dialogue but there are few elements
who do not want peace.”
In fact,
about 130 major and minor terrorist groups, some of which
have splintered off the TTP, operate in and from a 27,220
square kilometers area of FATA, according to Ashraf Ali,
President of the FATA Research Centre, an Islamabad-based
think tank. Ali had argued, on December 20, 2011, “The
TTP has not been able to forge a united command ever since
it lost its influential commander, Baitullah Mehsud, in
an air strike in August 5, 2009. The TTP is plagued by
a leadership crisis as neither its incumbent head Hakimullah
Mehsud – too immature to lead – nor Maulvi Faqir, a leading
'commander' from Bajaur Agency, is in a position to keep
it united.”
There was
an inevitable futility about the aborted talks, which
the Government is desperately trying to restore. With
fragmented terrorist formations, each trying to outbid
the other in their extremism and terrorist excesses, and
with scores of terrorist groups mushrooming over the years,
many of them with state support, as well as support from
powerful political actors, Pakistan can receive little
respite from the relentless terror that engulfs the country.
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Maoists:
Southern Incursions
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Moving
a step further towards consolidation of Left Wing Extremist
(LWE) groups in India, the Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist) and the Communist Party of India-Marxist
Leninist - Naxalbari (CPI-ML-Naxalbari) jointly announced
their merger on May 1, 2014. The new party retained the
name Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist).
The joint
statement announcing the merger was
made by Mupalla Laxman Rao alias Ganapathy, general
secretary CPI-Maoist and Ajith, secretary, CPI-ML-Naxalbari,
and was issued to the media by Abhay and Krantipriya,
the spokespersons of the respective outfits.
CPI-ML-
Naxalbari has limited pockets of influence in Kerala,
Maharashtra and Karnataka. Ajith is believed to be the
pen name of Kannamballi Murali, a Malayali, who has links
with the international Maoist movement, and is the all-India
secretary of the CPI-ML-Naxalbari. Hailing from Ernakulam
in Kerala State, Murali was a student at the Regional
Engineering College, Kozhikode. He left College before
completing the course. After the merger, Murali is likely
to be inducted into the Central Committee (CC) of CPI-Maoist.
CPI-ML-Naxalbari’s
origin can be traced back to the political ideas and ideology
of S.A. Rauf, a prominent Naxalite leader from Andhra
Pradesh who was connected with the movement since its
earliest phase. He first joined the All India Coordination
Committee of Revolutionaries (AICCR), the precursor of
the Communist Party of India - Marxist-Leninist (CPI-ML),
which led the Naxalite movement under the leadership of
Charu Mazumdar from late 1967. When CPI-ML was formed
on April 22, 1969, he remained a prominent presence in
the revolutionary Party. When CPI-ML split in 1972, he
supported the Central Organizing Committee and CPI-ML,
and was a member of the Andhra Pradesh Provincial Committee.
In 1977, he left CPI-ML, opposing the August Resolution,
which sought to advocate the 'mass line' and reject Charu
Mazumdar's 'annihilation line', to form another revolutionary
party in Andhra Pradesh, CPI-ML (Rauf). In 1979, Rauf
along with CPI (ML) Kerala State Committee, became a part
of the launching of the Central Reorganizing Committee
(CPI-ML-CRC). However, differences developed with the
'revisionist theory'of the General Secretary of CPI-ML-CRC,
K. Venu, and Rauf broke away to form CPI-ML-Red Flag in
1987. In 1991, the CRC was disbanded and the Kerala Communist
Party (KCP) and Maharashtra Communist Party (MCP), which
survived the disbanding, merged to form the Maoist Unity
Centre (MUC) in 1997. In 1998 Rauf broke away from the
Red Flag faction with his supporters, and in 1999 MUC
merged with the Rauf faction to establish CPI-ML-Naxalbari
under his leadership. Rauf worked as the General Secretary
of CPI-ML-Naxalbari till 2008, after which the mantle
of leadership fell on Kannamballi Murali aka Ajith.
The merger
of CPI-ML-Naxalbari and CPI-Maoist has been on the cards
for several years, as ideological differences between
the two groups have faded away. Further, according to
an internal document of the People’s War Group (PWG) (one
of the constituent
formations of CPI-Maoist, at the second
meeting of the PWG CC held in November-December 2002,
the CC noted that cadres from the CPI-ML-Naxalbari had
quit and joined the ranks of PW in ‘sizeable numbers.’
The merger would now give CPI-Maoist further access to
CPI-ML-Naxalbari underground/ over ground networks.
In Kerala,
the CPI-ML-Naxalbari is believed to be working through
its front organizations, such as Ayyankali Pada and Porattam.
Ayyankali Pada had taken the Palakkad collector, W.R.
Reddy, hostage at the collectorate in 1996. Porattam had
led the attacks on the World Bank Project Office at Kothamangalam
in 2000; on the Coca Cola outlet in Kochi in 2003; and
on the Citi Bank branch at Kochi in 2004. CPI-ML-Naxalbari
cadres had attacked the NABARD offices in Kannur and Kalpetta
in 2008. The Viplava Sthreevadi Prasnthanam, Viplava Vidyarthi
Prasthanam and Njattuvela Samskarika Samithi are the other
formations believed to be associated with CPI-ML-Naxalbari.
Given the
prevailing situation, the CPI-ML-Naxalbari and CPI-Maoist
merger can have significant impact for the Maoist movement
in the tri-junction area of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil
Nadu. CPI-Maoist has been making continuous efforts towards
creating a base in
the area, and while they have not
perpetrated any large scale violence in the area, they
have been visible with an increasing frequency and there
is significant evidence of their non-violent mobilisation.
Violence and intimidation, however, have not been altogether
lacking. Thus, for instance, on April 24, 2014, a five-member
CPI-Maoist squad threatened a traffic Police official,
Pramod Bhaskaran, and his mother, at their house in Mananthavadi
in the Wayanad District of Kerala, accusing Bhaskaran
of ‘spying’ activity. They also pasted a poster on the
wall of his residence and set ablaze a motorcycle kept
near the house. Earlier on April 12, 2014, security had
been tightened in the Udupi District of Karnataka after
a banner and six pamphlets with messages by Maoists were
found at Mala village in the Karkala Rural Police Station
limits. Further, a group of 15 Maoists set ablaze a van
belonging to a former Gram Panchayat (village level
local self-Government institution) member, identified
as Ramchandra Bhatt, at Kuthlur village on the fringes
of Kudremukh National Park in Chickmagalur District of
Karnataka on November 9, 2013. The Police said the Maoists
did this in protest against what they termed as forcible
eviction of tribals from the National Park area. Commenting
on the incident Prathap Reddy, Inspector General of Police
(IGP), Western Range asserted that Bhatt was one of the
activists who tried to convince people in the National
Park area to accept the rehabilitation package of the
State Government.
Confirming
the Maoist presence in the tri-junction area, an internal
communication of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA)
had noted, in November 2013, that the presence and movement
of Maoist groups had been noticed on over two dozen occasions
in the Districts of Malappuram, Wayanad and Kannur in
Kerala and Mysore, Kodagu, Udupi, Chikmagalur and Shimoga
in Karnataka. Though adjoining areas of Tamil Nadu had
not recorded any movement of armed Naxal cadres, activities
of front organisations had increased distinctively in
Erode District, the UMHA observed, adding, in a six-page
letter sent to 13 States, "The party (CPI-Maoist)
is trying to develop the tri-junction of Karnataka, Kerala
and Tamil Nadu as a suitable operational base." In
another communication, UMHA sounded a warning that armed
CPI-Maoist cadres had earlier visited various Adivasi
(tribal) colonies of Kannur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram
and Palakkad at least 50 times.
In the
tri-junction of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the
Maoists function under the Western Ghats Special Zonal
Committee (WGSZC). According to an article written by
an underground Kerala Maoist leader Rupesh in ‘Mathrubhumi’
weekly in 2013, the WGSZC was formed to target Karnataka,
Kerala and Tamil Nadu in view of the 'exploitation faced
by scores of tribals, Scheduled Caste people, landless
poor farmers' in these areas, as against the booming economic
prospects of nearby cities such as Erode, Coimbatore,
Palakkad, Kochi, Kozhikode and Mangalore. The Maoist move
is said to be part of an ambitious plan to extend the
purported Red Corridor from Jharkhand to Wayanad.
Increasing
Maoist activities have recently been noticed in Kerala,
where the rebels' presence has been identified in regions
that come under 31 Police Stations limits in the Kannur,
Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Palakkad and Thrissur
Districts. The Kerala Police recently issued lookout notices
for 11 Maoists. Though the Maoists claim that stepping
into Kerala was part of their agenda to establish their
grip on the Western Ghats area, the Police claim that
it was the no-holds-barred effort of the Karnataka Anti-Naxal
Force that made the armed group 'retreat' into Kerala.
The Kerala Police believe that 11 Maoist cadres, including
four women, are active in the Maoist gang operating in
the State, with a considerable number of members currently
in sleeping modules as well. Of the 11, six are from the
Malnad region of Karnataka, - Vikram Gowda, Latha, Kanya
alias Kanyakumari, Sundari alias Geetha,
Mahesh alias Jayanna and A.S. Suresh. The six are
believed to have been involved in many criminal cases
in Karnataka, including murder, and Vikram Gowda has led
the movement in Malnad.
Sensing
the urgency of the situation, the Kerala State Government,
on February 21, 2014, directed the Police Department to
fortify 16 Police Stations in north Kerala on ‘a war footing.’
The Government ordered 300 armed Policemen to the region
to provide ‘perimeter defence and support’ to Thunderbolts
Kerala, the special weapons and tactics team of the
State Police, which was spearheading ‘anti-Naxal operations’
there. The Thunderbolt Commandos however, feel that a
clear political mandate for operations is yet to be given.
Putta Vimaladitya, Wayanad SP, who is also leading the
anti-terror operations in the State, argued, “We have
not yet received a shoot-at-sight order from the Government.
Anti-Maoist operation in the State is being carried out
at present without such an order.” Effective operations,
the Forces feel, are not possible in the absence of such
an executive cover.
Maoist
efforts to secure a foothold in the tri-junction of Kerala,
Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may also be fed by the increasing
and consistent pressure exerted by Security Forces (SFs)
in other theatres in areas of traditional Maoist dominance.
Nevertheless, past efforts to establish themselves in
the Southern
States have met with little success,
though this has not deterred them from trying.
The significance
of the recent merger of the CPI-ML-Naxalbari and CPI-Maoist,
coming after nearly ten years of the formation of the
latter, must not be underestimated. It constitutes a further
step forward in the consolidation of LWE extremists groups,
in a process in which the formation of CPI-Maoist was
itself a major advance that signalled a substantial escalation
in LWE operations. The Andhra Pradesh based CPI-ML People’s
War (PW) and the Bihar based Maoist Communist Centre of
India (MCCI) had, on September 21, 2004, merged to form
CPI-Maoist. The Revolutionary Communist Centre of India
- Maoist, operating in Punjab, had earlier united with
the then Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) to form the MCCI
in 2003. The Bihar-based Party Unity (PU) had merged in
1998 with the CPI-ML People’s War, which was active in
Andhra Pradesh.
The Maoists
themselves acknowledge that their movement is currently
in a ‘critical condition’. Nevertheless, their efforts
at a 'countrywide revival' continue, and the recent merger
highlights their determination to restore the strength
of the movement. As an unnamed senior Police officer from
Kerala noted in a media report, it would be stupid to
wait for some untoward incidents to swing into action
against the Maoists in the tri-junction area. Pre-emptive
action in the early stages of Maoist intervention in this
region, when the organisation is at its most vulnerable
and susceptible to penetration, will prove far more effective
than later action to contain an escalating trend in violence.
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Rift
within a Rift
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On April
28, 2014, two Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M)
cadres loyal to Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka
Prachanda were seriously injured after cadres loyal to
former Prime Minister and former Vice-Chairman Dr. Baburam
Bhattarai exchanged blows at the opening ceremony of the
Rasuwa District Convention, following a heated debate
over the duration of the political event. Cadres from
remote areas had demanded that the convention be concluded
on the day itself, arguing that they did not have enough
money for overnight accommodation.
Earlier,
on January 1, 2014, four cadres of UCPN-M were injured
in a factional clash in Parsa District, while protesting
the 'unilateral' decision of the party leadership in the
selection of candidates for Constituent Assembly (CA)
members under the Proportional Representation (PR) system.
With the
deepening intra-party rift among factions led by Dahal
and Bhattarai, cadres loyal to the two blocs held separate
District Conventions in Rautahat District on April 29,
2014. While those loyal to Bhattarai held their function
at Dharahari Village Development Committee (VDC), Dahal's
supporters organized a parallel Convention at the Gedahiguthi
VDC in the District. Interestingly, the organizers of
both Conventions claimed their event to be the official
one.
Earlier,
on April 26, 2014, addressing the Kathmandu District Convention
of the UCPN-M, Dahal declared, “I want to reform the UCPN-M.
I urge leaders to quit the party if they have joined the
party with the sole objective of holding coveted posts.”
Dahal also asserted that factionalism in the party should
come to an end. Meanwhile, Bhattarai has been arguing
that the party needs new structures, ideology and leadership,
to institutionalize the achievements of the past. Another
senior leader, Narayankaji Shrestha, argued that the Party
had lost its support base after it backtracked from nationalist
agendas.
Indeed,
District Conventions, which are precursors to the party’s
National Convention, could not be held in several Districts,
as one contender was completely opposed to the other.
Although several Districts, prominently including Kathmandu,
Lalitpur, Morang, Rukum, Baglung, Kailali, Sindhupalchowk,
Nuwakot and Dhading, among others, elected their representatives
for the National Convention, they were unable to elect
office bearers due to factional disputes.
Unsurprisingly,
the five day long National Convention of the UCPN-M, held
at Biratnagar in Morang District between May 2 and May
6, 2014, with the objective of strengthening Party organizations,
witnessed tensions and divisions among rival factions.
Addressing the Convention on May 2, 2014, Dahal claimed,
"Some of them (members) joined the party with the
hope of becoming CA member and Minister. We had to welcome
them by sprinkling red vermillion powder instead of offering
Tika due to lack of time. We had thought that there might
be a wave of deserting the party. It's been four-five
months; apart from one or two there is no such wave."
Meanwhile,
addressing the Convention on the same day, Bhattarai said,
"We have initiated a serious debate once again… Working
guidelines, organizations and leadership of yesterday
are not enough. It is necessary to transform the Party
and its organizations in order to achieve the new tasks
of revolution." Narayankaji Shrestha also underlined
the need for transformation of the Party. Most party leaders
present at the Convention came down heavily against Chairman
Dahal's working style. Major issues of dispute included
power-sharing in the Central Committee (CC), among office
bearers, and in other Party Committees; the system and
principles of leadership; handover of charge and ways
of forming Party organization in line with the Party’s
political line; system of addressing differing views within
the party and method of registering dissent in the Party;
system of cultivating party ideology compatible with the
changed context; and ways of defining the Party´s political
line.
Indeed,
to settle the party’s ideological and leadership issues,
on May 3, 2014, Bhattarai demanded that the party should
hold a General Convention at the earliest, claiming, "In
totality, Dahal´s document is a continuity of the older
one. It can’t do away with the crisis facing the party
in an objective way. Therefore, it has become urgent to
start healthy debates on broader issues, including the
party’s ideology, its political line, organization, leadership
and working style." The ‘Dahal Document’ was tabled
at the National Convention, and emphasised the consolidation
of communist parties, and the formation of a "powerful
communist centre", and sought to end "crippling
factionalism".
Remarkably,
on May 6, 2014, Dahal was re-elected party Chairman, even
as Bhattarai again refused to remain in the Party’s newly
formed CC. Addressing a closed session at the Convention
that lasted for around 10 minutes on May 6, 2014, Bhattarai
declared, “The Party turned intolerant toward different
views in the Party. I prefer to work on research and will
not stay in the CC. We will support the Party from outside,
but will not occupy Central Committee posts.” Along with
Bhattarai, 16 leaders who supported him, also walked out
of the closed session. Leaders of Bhattarai's panel claimed
that their voices were ignored by Party Chair Dahal in
the Convention, and argued that Dahal acted highhandedly
in the selection of CC members. Leaders close to Bhattarai
put forth two major conditions for their entry into the
CC, including a date for the Party’s General Convention
and intra-party freedom to openly advocate their political
agenda at Party fora.
The intra-party
dispute persisted even as the National Convention concluded
on May 6, 2014. Immediately thereafter, at the first CC
meeting, Narayankaji Shrestha was nominated as vice-chairman
and Posta Bahadur Bogati as general secretary of the Party.
Both Bogati and Shrestha have been supportive of Dahal.
Unsurprisingly, the rift in the Party reached tipping
point after Bhattarai rejected the newly announced CC,
accusing Dahal of preparing the list of members unilaterally
and excluding members from his faction.
On May
7, 2014, a day after the conclusion of the Party’s National
Convention, while speaking at the release of the Party’s
quarterly mouthpiece, Prasthan, Dahal attacked
Bhattarai, declaring, “I promoted Bhattarai to the Party’s
highest committee on the assumption that the Party would
benefit from his intellectual caliber. But I have been
deceived. Even before the Constituent Assembly elections,
Bhattarai regarded me as ‘a leader of leaders’. It was
tough to downsize the Central Committee to 99 members
from 266. The Party decided to form a 151-member Central
Committee only to address Bhattarai’s grievances. But
he opted to stay out of the CC.”
Expectedly,
the Bhattarai faction’s dramatic moves have fuelled speculation
that the former rebel party may head toward another vertical
split. An earlier division had occurred after a three-day
National Convention in 2012 (June 16 to June 18), when
the then Vice-President of UCPN-M, Mohan Baidya aka
Kiran, after nearly a year of functioning as a hardline
‘party within the party’, abandoned
the organisation on June 19, 2012,
to create a new political entity, the Communist Party
of Nepal-Maoist-Baidya (CPN-Maoist-Baidya). The hard-line
National Convention, attended by around 2,000 cadres,
declared Baidya the Chairman of the new formation, with
Ram Bahadur Thapa as its General Secretary, Chandra Prakash
Gajurel its Secretary and Netra Bikram Chand and Dev Gurung,
Politburo members.
Ominously,
the CPN-Maoist (the parent party of the present UCPN-M)
which had emerged as the largest party in the last CA
elections held in 2008, securing 229 seats, got only 80
seats in the 601-member CA in the second
CA elections held on November 19,
2013.
Severely
embarrassed by the humiliating debacle in the 2013 elections,
Prachanda even accused the state machinery and the Election
Commission (EC) of 'systematically rigging' the polls
with the intent to marginalize the UCPN-M in the race
for power. Bhattarai, however, took a different view on
the poll results and attributed the Party's poor performance
to internal weaknesses and 'deviousness' that had undermined
the leadership and organizational rank and file. He also
demanded that Party Chairman Dahal take moral responsibility
for the poll debacle and quit his post. Prachanda rebuffed
the call, contending that it was not he alone who should
take the moral responsibility for the defeat, but that
blame should be apportioned to all who were at the helm
of Party affairs.
Meanwhile,
leaders from the Bhattarai faction have assured people
that they were striving for the transformation of the
party and did not intend to create any new organization.
Top Bahadur Raymajhi, a party leader close to Bhattarai,
on May 8, 2014, thus stated, “The rumors regarding a Party
split have been spread by our enemies to distort our agenda
of reforming the Party. We will continue to fight to keep
the Party unity intact.”
The rift
between the Dahal and Bhattarai factions has deepened
after the latter boycotted the entire process of nominating
CC members during the closed session of the Convention.
The Biratnagar Convention, which was intended to strengthen
the Party, has only escalated tensions and widened the
gap between the factions. Further, the infighting within
the UCPN-M undermines the process of drafting the Constitution.
Madhav Kumar Nepal, the leader of the Communist Party
of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) thus observed,
on May 8, 2014 said “The dispute in UCPN-M was over the
party’s leadership. It is not good to bring up irrelevant
matters during the Constitution writing process.”
As things
stand, the UCPN-M's problems can only be compounded further
if it fails to reform and democratize from within, jeopardizing
what remains a fragile and incipient democratic process
in the country.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
May 5-11,
2014
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Islamist Terrorism
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
11
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Maharashtra
|
0
|
7
|
0
|
7
|
Total (INDIA)
|
14
|
7
|
3
|
24
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
2
|
3
|
10
|
15
|
FATA
|
5
|
11
|
21
|
37
|
KP
|
4
|
1
|
9
|
14
|
Punjab
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Sindh
|
21
|
0
|
0
|
21
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
'We
don't
want
to
let
Bangladesh
soil
to
be
used
by
anyone
for
any
anti-social,
terrorist
or
any
kind
of
subversive
act',
asserts
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Hasina
Wajed:
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Hasina
Wajed
on
May
8
said
"We
don't
want
to
let
Bangladesh
soil
to
be
used
by
anyone
for
any
anti-social,
terrorist
or
any
kind
of
subversive
act.
For
this
we're
taking
adequate
steps".
Mentioning
that
Bangladesh
was
once
known
as
a
country
of
natural
disasters,
terrorism,
militancy,
Hasina
said
now
Bangladesh
has
become
a
role
model
of
development,
the
country
is
moving
ahead
and
will
continue
to
move.
The
Independent,
May
9,
2014.
INDIA
Israel
seeks
security
for
its
citizens
in
India,
says
report:
Israel
has
sought
security
for
its
citizens
and
assets
in
India
during
the
months
of
May
and
June
according
to
senior
intelligence
sources.
The
request
came
in
view
of
the
festival
season
which
sees
a
large
amount
of
Israeli
arrivals
in
India.
The
Israelis
fear
threats
from
Al
Qaeda
and
its
affiliated
organisations
AQIM
(Al-Qaeda
in
the
Islamic
Maghreb),
AQAP
(Al-Qa'ida
in
the
Arabian
Peninsula),
Al-Nasr
Al
Sharia,
which
have
carried
out
terrorist
attacks
in
Africa
against
Israeli
citizens.
Israel
has
sought
additional
security
at
Jewish
centres
such
as
synagogues.
India
Today,
May
8,
2014.
Coastal
Security
Group
steps
up
vigil
in
Tamil
Nadu
after
Infiltration
alert:
A
security
system
has
been
put
in
place
and
Coastal
Security
Group
(CSG)
deployed
off
Rameswaram
to
completely
block
infiltration
through
sea.
Jyoti
Basu,
in-charge
of
CSG,
Rameswaram
said,
"Coastal
Security
Group
has
been
deployed
in
the
area
after
police
received
information
that
ISI
agents
could
infiltrate
India
from
Sri
lanka
via
Palk
Straits.
A
new
security
system
has
been
put
in
place
to
totally
prevent
infiltration.".
Zee
News,
May
6,
2014.
'Chennai
train
IEDs
similar
to
Patna
bombs',
says
report:
A
forensic
examination
of
the
remains
of
Improvised
Explosive
Devices
(IEDs)
collected
from
the
two
coaches
of
Bangalore-Guwahati
Express
have
revealed
that
the
explosives
were
similar
to
the
Patna
(Bihar)
bombs,
which
exploded
on
October
27,
2013.
While
the
explosives
used
in
the
train
were
put
in
singular
elbow-pipes,
in
Patna
each
IED
was
made
of
at
least
two
such
pipes.
In
both
the
incidents,
analogue
clocks
were
used
as
timers,
a
senior
official
said.
Financial
Express,
May
8,
2014.
Sri
Lanka
and
Maldives
under
scanner
as
transit
point
for
terror:
Sri
Lanka
and
Maldives
are
under
the
scanner
of
India's
security
establishment
as
sources
and
transit
points
for
Pakistan-supported
terror
elements
who
may
be
used
to
target
vital
installations
in
southern
India.
Sources
here
said
both
countries
were
well
aware
of
the
emerging
developments
and
have
been
coordinating
more
carefully
in
recent
times.
Maldives
is
a
place
of
particular
concern
because
of
the
radical
elements,
many
of
whom
got
indoctrinated
in
Pakistan.
Times
of
India,
May
8,
2014.
Chorus
for
seizure
of
illegal
arms
post
BTAD
violence
in
the
region,
says
report:
Condemning
the
killing
of
innocent
villagers
in
Bodoland
Territorial
Areas
District
(BTAD),
people
from
different
walks
of
life
have
advocated
seizure
of
illegal
arms
in
the
region.
Even
Assam
governor
JB
Patnaik
has
asked
the
State
Government
to
seize
illegal
arms
in
the
BTAD
region.
On
May
3,
the
governor
said
house-to-house
search
should
be
conducted
to
bring
an
end
to
this
problem.
A
senior
police
official
said
more
than
100
illegal
arms
have
been
seized
in
BTAD
during
the
time
of
elections.
Times
of
India,
May
5,
2014.
806
kilogrammes
of
explosives,
130
IEDs
found
during
poll
process:
Over
806
kilogrammes
of
explosives
and
130
improvised
explosive
devices
(IEDs)
have
been
found
by
security
forces
from
Naxal
(Left
Wing
Extremism)
violence-hit
areas
since
the
announcement
of
Lok
Sabha
polls
on
March
5.
The
maximum
of
these
IEDs
and
ammunition,
meant
for
use
against
security
forces
and
poll
officials,
have
been
recovered
by
paramilitary
Central
Reserve
Police
Force
(CRPF)
from
Naxal-affected
areas
of
Bihar,
Jharkhand,
Chhattisgarh,
Maharashtra
and
Odisha.
Zee
News,
May
5,
2014.
Pakistan's
spy
agency
ISI
planning
to
strike
on
Kochi
and
Visakhapatnam
Naval
base,
say
Tamil
Nadu
Police:
The
Tamil
Nadu
Police
on
May
5
told
at
a
metropolitan
magistrate
court
in
Egmore,
Chennai
that
suspected
Pakistan's
Inter-Services
Intelligence
(ISI)
agent
Sakir
Hussian,
a
Sri
Lankan
national,
arrested
from
Chennai
was
working
on
a
plan
to
sabotage
the
Indian
Navy
bases
at
Kochi
and
Visakhapatnam.
Deccan
Chronicle,
May
6,
2014.
NEPAL
Timely
constitution
possible
if
parties
work
in
tandem,
says
Prime
Minister
Sushil
Koirala:
On
May
9,
Prime
Minister
(PM)
Sushil
Koirala
said
the
country
will
surely
get
a
much-awaited
constitution
on
time,
provided
all
concerned
work
in
tandem.
"Constitution
can
be
promulgated
on
time,
with
cooperation
from
all
political
parties
and
the
public.
I
urge
people
and
the
parties
with
different
ideologies
to
play
a
constructive
role
for
the
same,"
he
urged,
adding
that
only
timely
promulgation
of
the
constitution
can
end
the
protracted
politico-constitutional
crisis.
Hindustan
Times,
May
10,
2014.
TRC
and
CED
passed
by
Parliamnet
for
greater
national
unity,
says
Prime
Minister
Sushil
Koirala:
Prime
Minister
(PM)
Sushil
Koirala
on
May
8
said
that
the
Transitional
Justice
Bill
passed
on
April
25,
2014
by
Parliament
for
the
establishment
of
a
Truth
and
Reconciliation
Commission
(TRC)
and
Commission
of
Inquiry
on
Enforced
Disappearances
(CED)
is
aimed
at
greater
national
unity
and
reconciliation
as
envisaged
in
the
peace
accord
and
has
not
deviated
from
international
standards.
"Nepal´s
commitment
to
human
rights
is
total
and
unflinching.
It
needs
to
be
acknowledged
that
a
country,
which
is
at
the
bottom
rung
of
the
development
ladder,
has
chosen
to
become
party
to
almost
all
human
rights
instruments,"
Koirala
said.
My
Republica,
May
9,
2014.
Tarai
armed
outfits
tamed,
says
Deputy
Prime
Minister
and
Minister
for
Home
Affairs
Bamdev
Gautam:
On
May
8,
Deputy
Prime
Minister
and
Minister
for
Home
Affairs
Bamdev
Gautam
has
claimed
that
the
government
has
contained
the
criminal
activities
of
armed
outfit's
operating
in
Tarai
and
Eastern
Hills.
Minister
Gautam
said
that
the
number
of
armed
outfit's
active
in
the
two
regions
has
come
down
"significantly"
and
that
security
agencies
are
arresting
the
heads
of
such
armed
groups.
eKantipur,
May
9,
2014.
PAKISTAN
21
militants
and
11
SFs
among
37
persons
killed
during
the
week
in
FATA:
An
Improvised
Explosive
Device
(IED)
exploded
on
May
8
killing
at
least
nine
Frontier
Corps
(FC)
personnel
and
injuring
several
others
near
the
Miranshah
road
in
Ghulam
Khan
Tehsil
(revenue
unit)
of
North
Waziristan
Agency
(NWA)
of
Federally
Administered
Tribal
Areas
(FATA).
Five
more
militants
were
killed
and
three
injured
as
clashes
between
two
factions
of
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
continued
in
Shawal
area
of
NWA
on
May
7.
At
least
13
militants
were
killed
as
infighting
between
rival
TTP
groups
restarted
in
Shawal
tehsil
NWA
on
May
6.
Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
Central
Asia;
The
Nation;
Frontier
Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
May
6-12,
2014.
TTP
says
the
group
is
serious
in
pursuing
peace-talks
with
Government:
A
senior
leader
and
member
of
the
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
Political
Shura,
Azam
Tariq
Mehsud,
said
on
May
12
that
his
group
is
still
serious
in
pursuing
peace
talks
with
the
Government
which,
according
to
a
TTP
intermediary,
is
maintaining
a
'surprising
silence'
on
the
matter.
"The
date
and
venue
for
a
second
face-to-face
meeting
will
be
decided
only
when
the
Government
and
the
Army
come
on
the
same
page,"
Azam
Tariq
Mehsud
said.
However,
he
claimed
that
the
Army
was
not
serious
in
pursuing
peace
talks.
Tribune,
May
12,
2014.
Destroy
terrorist
sanctuaries
in
North
Waziristan
Agency,
US
Deputy
Secretary
of
State
William
Burns
tells
Islamabad:
United
States
(US)
Deputy
Secretary
of
State
William
Burns
during
his
meeting
with
the
civil
and
military
leadership
on
May
9
to
discuss
regional
security
situation
and
exchange
views
on
matters
of
bilateral
interest
said
that
Pakistani
should
"destroy
terrorist
sanctuaries
located
in
North
Waziristan
and
complete
the
operation
before
installation
of
the
new
political
administration
in
Kabul".
Daily
Times
May
10,
2014.
'Militant
wings
of
political
parties
present
in
Karachi',
says
Karachi
Police
Chief
Shahid
Hayat:
Karachi
Police
Chief
Shahid
Hayyat
on
May
9
said
that
militant
wings
of
political
parties
are
present
in
Karachi.
He
said
that
the
Supreme
Court
had
also
mentioned
involvement
of
political
parties
in
terrorism..
The
News,
May
10,
2014.
Talks
or
no
talks,
bloodshed
by
militants
has
to
stop,
says
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif
and
CoAS
General
Raheel
Sharif
unanimously:
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif
and
Chief
of
Army
Staff
(CoAS)
General
Raheel
Sharif
on
May
8
stressed
that
irrespective
of
whether
peace
talks
are
held
or
not,
violence
and
bloodshed
by
militants
must
stop.
General
Sharif
said
that
the
recent
attacks
on
the
Security
Forces
are
not
likely
to
stop
unless
some
hostile
groups
of
the
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
are
neutralised.
Amid
no
let-up
in
the
terror
attacks,
the
military
establishment
has
reportedly
told
Nawaz
Sharif
that
the
use
of
force
against
the
miscreants
has
become
unavoidable.
Daily
Times,
May
9,
2014.
TTP
'chief'
Mullah
Fazlullah
sacks
Sajna
from
South
Waziristan
Agency
'chief':
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
'chief'
Mullah
Fazlullah
on
May
8
sacked
Khan
Said
alias
Sajna
as
ameer
(chief)
of
South
Waziristan
Agency
(Federally
Administered
Tribal
Areas).
Umar
Khurasani
would
command
the
movement
in
both
North
and
South
Waziristan
Agencies.
Hakimullah
Mehsud's
group
'spokesman'
Daud
Mehsud
said
that
TTP's
'vice-ameer'
Shaikh
Khalid
Haqqani
has
been
made
ameer
of
South
Waziristan
Agency.
Daud
Mehsud
said
that
they
respect
decisions
taken
by
the
Mullah
Fazlullah.
The
News,
May
9,
2014.
Talks
still
'best
option'
to
end
terrorism,
says
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif:
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif,
while
talking
to
British
Broadcasting
Corporation
(BBC)
Urdu,
on
May
5
said
that
he
is
still
hopeful
that
talks
with
the
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
can
succeed,
despite
the
militants
ending
a
ceasefire,
and
that
talks
offered
the
"best
option"
of
ending
the
country's
long
conflict.
He
said
that
he
believed
his
talks
strategy
could
"bring
peace
without
any
further
bloodshed".
"If
we
can
make
this
process
somehow
successful,
I
think
it
will
be
the
best
option."
Daily
Times,
May
6,
2014.
27
missing
persons
traced,
claims
Commission
of
Inquiry
on
Enforced
Disappearances:
The
two
member
Commission
of
Inquiry
on
Enforced
Disappearances,
headed
by
retired
Justice
Javed
Iqbal
and
appointed
by
the
Supreme
Court,
on
May
5
claimed
that
it
had
resolved
27
missing
person
cases
last
month,
saying
that
most
of
these
persons
were
found
detained
at
various
"internment
centres"
in
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
The
figures
released
by
the
Commission
revealed
that
the
number
of
missing
persons
had
been
increasing
constantly,
1,846
cases
had
come
to
light
since
January
1,
2011,
the
day
the
commission
started
its
work.
Dawn,
May
6,
2014.
SRI
LANKA
India
was
instrumental
in
creating
PCs,
says
outgoing
Consul
General
of
India
Venkadasalam
Mahalingam:
The
outgoing
Consul
General
of
India,
Venkadasalam
Mahalingam
during
his
farewell
speech
in
Jaffna
District
on
May
6
said
that
India
was
instrumental
in
creating
the
Provincial
Councils
(PCs)
in
Sri
Lanka.
He
further
said
that
nobody
can
deny
India's
instrumental
role
in
creating
the
Northern
Province
(NP)
in
the
country
which
has
an
elected
Chief
Minister
and
other
Ministers
holding
different
portfolios.
Daily
Mirror,
May
7,
2014.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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