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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 17, October 26, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

MYANMAR
INDIA
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Redrawing Battle Lines in the Northeast
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Myanmar Government signed a Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA) with eight ethnic armed groups on October 15, 2015, enhancing prospects of ending a majority of the country’s long-running internal conflicts. President U Thein Sein hailed the signing of the Accord as a “historic” event. The signing ceremony was witnessed by international observers including representatives from India, Thailand, Japan, China, the United Nations and the European Union. Fifteen armed groups were invited to take part in negotiations that lasted almost two years, with eight groups finally agreeing to sign the NCA, while seven groups chose to stay away. Acknowledging that the ethnic Kachin and Wa – with tens of thousands of soldiers – are still determined to fight, President Thein Sein pledged to “try harder to gain agreement with other groups”.

According to the President, the signing will be followed by the formation of a Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee to prevent armed clashes and a Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee to facilitate political dialogue. A political framework is to be drawn up within 60 days after the formal NCA signing and the political dialogue is to start within 90 days.

India hailed the signing of NCA, which was witnessed by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Chairman of Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and interlocutor for Naga peace talks R.N. Ravi and former Chief Minister of Mizoram Zoramthanga. Zoramthanga had been involved in the peace deal and had travelled earlier to Myanmar and Thailand where he held talks with both Myanmarese rebel groups and the Government as a mediator.

At least three groups active along the Indo-Myanmar border – the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), Chin National Front (CNF) and Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) – were part of the peace negotiations ahead of signing of NCA. While CNF signed up, KIO and NSCN-K walked out. NSCN-K had taken the decision not be part of the NCA in a party conference held on September 21 at its headquarters, where NSCN-K 'chairman' S.S Khaplang and other central committee members were present. Later, in an interview with Independent Mon News Agency (report published on September 24) U Kyaw Sein, an NSCN-K central committee member said, “We already discussed the topic with our chairman. The chairman said we aren’t ready to sign the NCA yet. And, there are some political issues in our group. We cannot find a solution for this by just signing the NCA. The government side also cannot solve this problem. So, we decided not to participate in the NCA inking.” He did not reveal what these political problems were, though he added, “It is not that we will revolt against the Burmese Government because we do not sign the NCA”. Though NSCN-K is not a signatory to the Agreement, from India’s internal security perspective the NCA can be very significant as Myanmar still remains a safe haven for a host of militant outfits active in India’s north-east. Erstwhile safe havens in Bhutan and Bangladesh have now become extremely difficult.

NSCN-K was in ceasefire agreement with Government of India since April 28, 2001, till March 27, 2015 when it unilaterally pulled out of the truce and attacked the Indian Army in Chandel District on June 4, 2015, causing the death of 18 Army personnel and injuring another 11 soldiers. Significantly, NSCN-K had also entered into a ceasefire agreement with Myanmar on April 9, 2012, which allowed it elbow room to maintain peace with Myanmar while stepping up violence in its area of operation in India. This made things difficult for India, as Myanmar lacked a legal framework to take action against it, even if Indian diplomatic efforts could convince Myanmar to take punitive action against NSCN-K. There is a possibility now that things may change.

With the signing of NCA and NSCN-K’s exclusion, the group’s earlier ceasefire with Myanmar is in danger of being derecognized. In fact, U Kyaw Sein in the interview to Independent Mon News Agency had acknowledged that, at a meeting with the Government at Myanmar Peace Center on September 16, 2015, officials told the NSCN-K that if it did not participate in the NCA signing, the group would be included in the unlawful groups list.

Significantly, following NSCN-K's refusal to be part of the NCA, Myanmar troops have launched punitive operations against the outfit's facilities in Myanmar Naga Hills (MNH). Two major bases at Ponyu and Langhting were set afire and a few weapons seized, driving cadres into forest and mountain hideouts. Myanmar now has the legal cover to act against NSCN-K, as and when it decides to do so. Further, after resolving a majority of conflicts in the country, Myanmar can effectively turn the heat on the remaining insurgent outfits outside the NCA. It is, however, likely to take significant diplomatic efforts to convince Myanmar to act effectively and in a sustained manner against the anti-India groups.

Meanwhile, as the NCA was being signed in Myanmar, Paresh Baruah, ‘commander-in-chief’ of the United Liberation Front of Asom – Independent (ULFA-I) spoke to The Assam Tribune over phone from an undisclosed location and claimed that the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA) would enhance its strength by incorporating another nine militant outfits in its fold. The UNLFWSEA was formed on April 17, 2015, by four active militant groups of the Northeast region – NSCN-K, ULFA-I; the IK Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS); and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) – with the aim of setting up a ‘northeast government-in-exile’, reportedly to be based in Myanmar. S.S. Khaplang, the NSCN-K ‘chief’ is chairman of this new front, UNLFWSEA.  

Paresh Baruah claimed that two Meghalaya-based outfits – Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) and Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) – have already expressed their desire to join the common platform. He added that the formal process of these outfits joining the new grouping may be completed within the current year. Further, the Coordination Committee (CorCom), a common platform of seven militant groups of Manipur, is likely to join the new front. Baruah claimed that six member outfits of CorCom were ready to join UNLFWSEA immediately, “But we want the entire CorCom to join us. They have some problem with one of the constituents and we are hoping that they can settle their problems soon so that the entire CorCom can join us. We are expecting that the seven outfits of Manipur will be joining hands with us within this year.” Baruah also claimed that one insurgent group from Tripura would also be joining the front ‘soon’.

While the developments in Myanmar can be seen as an opportunity to put increased pressure on the militant formations in India’s Northeast, UNLFW is seeking out ways to withstand that pressure and keep the situation boiling at a time when a ‘historic accord’ has been signed between the Government of India and the largest rebel Naga group, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim – Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) on August 3, 2015, raising hopes of a larger peace in the Northeast.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal database there has been a sustained decline in insurgent violence in India’s Northeast over the years, with occasional spikes in certain theatres. As of October 25, 2015, the Northeast as whole recorded a total of 236 fatalities, including 52 civilians, 46 Security Force (SF) personnel and 138 militants, while the figure for the corresponding period in 2014 saw a total of 333 fatalities including 145 civilians, 17 SF personnel and 171 militants. Significantly, however, though more than two months remain in the current year, SF fatalities have already doubled in comparison to the whole of 2014. In fact, one thing stands out in the fatalities data for the Northeast: SF fatalities had not crossed 40 since 2008, but have already touched 46 in 2015 (as of October 25).

Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in India's Northeast 2005-2015

Year

Civilians
SFs
Terrorists
Total

2005

334
69
314
717

2006

232
92
313
637

2007

457
68
511
1036

2008

404
40
607
1051

2009

270
40
542
852

2010

77
22
223
322

2011

79
35
132
246

2012

90
18
208
316

2013

95
21
136
252

2014

245
23
197
465

2015

52
46
138
236
Total
2335
474
3321
6130
Source: SATP, *Data till October 25, 2015

As battle lines are redrawn in the Northeast, there is a lurking danger of escalation of violence. The NSCN-K, is trying to capture the militant space apparently vacated by the Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM). If Paresh Baruah is to be believed, and despite the potentially mounting pressure in Myanmar, S.S. Khaplang is in no mood to come to the negotiating table any time soon. However, if India gets its Myanmar maths correct, the militants will find the situation getting progressively more difficult.

PAKISTAN
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Punjab: Rising Tempest
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 14, 2015, at least seven people, including three contestants of the upcoming Local Government Elections (LGEs), were killed and 13 were injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the camp office of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Member of National Assembly (MNA) Sardar Amjad Khosa in the Taunsa Sharif city of Taunsa tehsil (revenue unit) in Dera Ghazi Khan District, Punjab Province. Jama'at-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Group of the Free), a breakaway faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. JuA 'spokesman' Ehsanullah Ehsan, in an email statement, vowed that TTP-JuA attacks would continue until Sharia'h (Islamic) law was fully implemented in Pakistan: “We want to make it clear to the Pakistani rulers that your policies and military operations can't weaken our determinations, rather our firm determination helps us in achieving and attacking our targets."

Khosa, who was not present at the camp office at the time of the attack, stated, "As per routine, people were gathered in my hujra [a hall for holding meetings] to discuss their issues, when a powerful blast took place. Many of my close political workers lost their lives in this attack, but it will not make us back down from our battle against terrorism.”  The LGEs are scheduled to take place on December 3, 2015.

On October 15, 2015, Security Forces (SFs), raided a house located in the Jorian village near the Dhamial Base in Rawalpindi District at 2:00am. As the joint raiding team reached the house, terrorists opened fire and hurled hand grenades. In the ensuing exchange of fire and suicide blasts, three terrorists, including two women; and one Police commando, identified as Irshad Ahmed, was killed. The women terrorists were identified as Malika Bibi and Sumaira Bibi. Two children inside the house were also killed when one of the women blew herself up.  One of the injured terrorists was a 'commander' of the TTP and was planning a terrorist attack during Muharram (the first month of the Islamic calendar, commemorated as a period of mourning by the Shia community) in the District. Muharram started on October 15, 2015. Police later searched the house and recovered two 9mm pistols, two hand grenades, and one old car reportedly loaded with explosives.

Earlier, on September 13, 2015, at least 10 persons were killed and 59 were injured when a suicide bomber targeted a rickshaw near Vehari Chowk in Multan District. No outfit has claimed responsibility for the attack so far.

On August 15, 2015, in a high profile attack, the Home Minister of the Punjab Province, Colonel Shuja Khanzada (Retd.) and 22 others, including Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Shaukat Shah, were killed, and another 23 persons were injured, in a suicide attack, which took place when between 50-100 people were attending a jirga (tribal council) at Khanzada’s political office in the Shadi Khan Village of Attock District. This attack shares similarities with the latest October 15 bombing, in terms of the target and event.

Punjab has experienced political killings in the past as well. The last high profile political killing was, of course, the assassination of Salman Taseer, the then Governor of the Punjab Province, who was killed in Islamabad Capital Territory, on January 4, 2011, by one of his own body guards, Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri. Qadri was reportedly incensed by the Governor’s efforts to amend the controversial blasphemy law [a punitive law against any critic or defamer of the Islamic religion, Prophet Mohammad or the holy Quran], as also his advocacy of Aasia Bibi, a Christian woman sentenced to death on November 7, 2010, for alleged blasphemy.  Similarly, former Federal Minister for Minorities Affairs, Shahbaz Bhatti, was killed in a targeted attack on March 2, 2011 in Islamabad for his open opposition to the country’s controversial blasphemy laws. Fidayeen-e-Muhammad [Those who Sacrifice their Lives for Prophet Muhammad], a faction of the TTP and al Qaeda-Punjab Chapter, had claimed responsibility for the attack. Pamphlets left by them at the incident site declared, "anyone who criticizes the blasphemy law has no right to live."

According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), Punjab has already recorded 155 terrorism-linked fatalities in the current year, including 89 civilians, 58 terrorists and eight SF personnel (all data till October 25, 2015). During the corresponding period in 2014, the Province had recorded a total of 101 fatalities, including 65 civilians, 21 terrorists and 15 SF personnel.

Dera Ghazi Khan, the location of the most recent attack, has, thus far, recorded a total 17 terrorism-related incidents since 2005, resulting in a total of 142 fatalities, including 128 civilians, 13 terrorists and one SF trooper. Most of the fatalities in the District have been the result of suicide attacks. Dera Ghazi Khan has recorded a total of four suicide attacks since 2005. The last suicide attack in the District before the October 14, 2015, incident was in 2011. On April 3, 2011, at least 51 persons were killed and more than 100 were injured when two suicide bombers blew themselves up outside the shrine of Sufi saint Ahmed Sultan, popularly known as Sakhi Sarwar. Ehsanullah Ehsan, the then 'spokesperson' of TTP, had claimed responsibility for the attack on the shrine. He had said, "Our men carried out these attacks and we will carry out more in retaliation for Government operations against our people in the northwest.”

Prior to this, on December 15, 2009, a suicide car bomb exploded in a market outside the residence of the then Punjab Chief Minister's Senior Adviser, Zulfiqar Khosa in Dera Ghazi Khan, killing 33 people and injuring 60. In another attack in the District, on February 5, 2009, a suicide bomber had blown himself up amidst a crowd of Shia worshippers outside Johar Ali Imambargah (A Shia place of commemoration) located in Muslim Town, killing at least 32 and injuring another 48.

Continuing violence in the District as well as in the Province is a result of the increasing presence of terrorist outfits that exploit the spaces created by selective political patronage in the Province. Dera Ghazi Khan, which lies in South Punjab, is home to a network of sophisticated jihadi formations, as are other parts of the Province.  The District is also the location of the country's largest nuclear facilities, creating extraordinary vulnerabilities to terrorist attack. The other Districts of the Province are also under threat. Significantly, on September 17, 2015, the Police arrested an Afghanistan-trained terrorist, identified as Umer Hayat alias Darvesh, from MPR Colony of Orangi Town in Karachi (Sindh). Darvesh, associated with Tehreek-e-Imarat Islamia, Afghanistan, hailed from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and was planning to carry out an attack on the Kamra Airbase in Attock District, Punjab. Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Junaid Ahmed Shaikh disclosed that Darvesh was also a suicide bomber who had trained two suicide bombers, Raz Mohammed and Taj Mohammed and that, “The purported suicide bombers had been sent to Punjab to carry out a terror act at the Kamra Airbase.”

The dismal situation is further compounded by the tacit support provided to a variety of terrorist and extremist formations by the Federal and Provincial Governments, making the Province an ideological sanctuary and a recruitment ground for various terrorist groups. Indeed, early on January 1, 2015, Awami National Party (ANP) Central General Secretary Mian Iftikhar Hussain declared Punjab a “training centre for terrorists and their masterminds” and demanded that the Government initiate decisive action against the terrorist leadership and infrastructure in the Province. He stressed, further, that “terrorism could not be eliminated from the country until an operation began against terrorist organisations in Punjab”.

The implicit support of the judiciary is also worrisome. The trial of top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) ‘commander’ Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the November 26, 2008, Mumbai (India) terror attacks (also known as 26/11) case, lingers on, with the courts approving every delaying device, including the interminable adjournment of hearings. Significantly, on December 18, 2014, the Islamabad Anti-Terrorism Court Judge Syed Kausar Abbas Zaidi who was hearing the case, granted bail to Lakhvi, noting "evidence against Lakhvi was deficient".  This led to an uproar, both in India and in the international community. Under intense pressure, Lakhvi was rearrested but was released again on bail on April 9, 2015.

Further, the Province is both home and host to LeT 'founder' and Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed whose frequent incitement to violent jihad against India and the West at public gatherings and rallies has been widely documented, as have been the terrorist activities of the groups he leads. LeT/JuD, nevertheless, continues to be cultivated and supported as an anti-India asset by the Pakistani establishment, with complete freedom of activity in across Pakistan, including the Islamabad Capital Territory. Demonstrating its duplicitous stand on JuD, the Pakistan Government on January 22, 2015, declared that it had ‘banned’ the group, along with several other terrorist organistaions, including the Haqqani Network. However, earlier on January 16, 2015, Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production told Hindustan Times in an exclusive interview, “We are looking to ban terror organisations but the JuD is a charitable organisation and the Government of Pakistan has no evidence against Hafiz Saeed or the JuD.” Subsequently after several u-turns, Pakistan’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson stated that there was "no new ban" on JuD. Describing this "as the same cycle of plants and denials, the same smoke and mirrors trick, reassuring gullible 'believers' without changing realities." SAIR noted,

Interestingly, JuD was consistently included in its list of terrorist organisations by the National Assembly since 2005, and this was used as grounds to 'take control of' many of the organisation's madrassas and institutions, especially by the Punjab Government. The actual staff and management remained very much with the same individuals who controlled these institutions before the purported 'take over', but there was now a pretext that permitted the Government to directly and generously fund their activities.

This cover was blown in 2009, when the Lahore High Court quashed proceedings against Hafiz Muhammad Saeed on the grounds that JuD was not a banned organisation, since no notification to this effect had been issued by the Ministry of Interior or by the Punjab Government.

Nevertheless, the National Assembly blithely continued to include JuD in its 'updated list' of banned organisation in 2012, even as official funding to its many madrassas and institutions flowed on.

All this is a part of Pakistan's strategy of deception, its careful calibration of policy as a 'minimal satisfier', responding reluctantly to meet the least of requirements where international - particularly US - pressure becomes unbearable, while insistently protecting the infrastructure, integrity and continuity of the many 'sarkari jehadi' groups it has long cultivated.

A December 20, 2014, Pakistani report indicated that JuD continued to remain “Enlisted under UNSCR 1267” since December 10, 2008. Despite this long and purported 'ban' JuD and its leader Saeed – who has a USD 10 million bounty placed on his head by Washington, find no reason to conceal their activities.

Terrorists have targeted important Government installations in the Punjab in the past. On September 6, 2012, three terrorists on a mission to target a nuclear power plant in the Ali Khel area of Bhakkar District, which borders Dera Ghazi Khan, were killed in a premature blast. A day earlier, on September 5, 2012, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Agency had reportedly intercepted a telephone call from the TTP, tapping into a conversation regarding finalisation of the strategy for attacks on nuclear installations in Dera Ghazi Khan. Again, on August 16, 2012, the Minhas Air Force Base at Kamra in Attock District, believed to be one of the centres where Pakistan has stockpiled its nuclear arsenal, was attacked by TTP terrorists. Nine terrorists, including six suicide bombers, dressed in military uniforms and armed with rocket propelled-grenades targeted the base, killing two Pakistan Air Force (PAF) personnel. All nine terrorists were killed in the retaliatory action.

Punjab has long been the centre of sustained radicalization, giving a durable base to radical Islamist and terrorist groupings. The burgeoning extremism that emanates from the power centre of Pakistan has put the country at risk. Regrettably, the principal response from the establishment has been of denial and the claim that the attacks inside Pakistan have roots ‘outside’. Even as Pakistan aggressively expands its weapon-oriented nuclear program, the home grown and nurtured terrorist outfits embark on a ferocious rampage, determined to destroy their own creators. The infrastructure of terrorism built by the civil-military leadership in the name of 'national security' has grown beyond containment, demonstrating its capacities by attacking the symbols of democracy and sensitive security installations in and beyond the Province.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 19-25, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Extremism

1
0
0
1

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
2
2

Total (BANGLADESH)

1
0
2
3

INDIA

 

Assam

0
0
1
1

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
3
3

Manipur

0
1
1
2

Meghalaya

2
0
0
2

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

1
0
0
1

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

4
1
5
10

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

23
5
5
33

FATA

0
0
21
21

KP

0
2
6
8

Sindh

21
0
1
22

PAKISTAN (Total)

44
7
33
84
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

IS claims responsibility of bomb attacks on Shiite Muslim group in Dhaka city: United States (US)-based SITE Intelligence Group on October 24 said that Islamic State (IS) has claimed the responsibility of bomb attacks on Huseni Dalan, the headquarters of Shiite Muslim group in Dhaka city. The bombings, which took place hours before the Shias were scheduled to bring out a procession marking holy Ashura, left a 14-year-old boy dead and injured 87 injured. Daily Star, October 26, 2015.

Two PBCP cadres killed and three others injured in Tangail District: Two cadres of Purba Bangla Communist Party (PBCP) were killed and three others injured in a gunfight with Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) at Maisha area of Hugra sub-District in Tangail District. RAB said that three other cadres were injured in the gunfight. RAB also recovered one foreign-made pistol, one shutter gun, two rounds of bullet and some shells from the scene. New Age, October 21, 2015.


INDIA

India downplays Kashmir-reference: India on October 23 downplayed the reference to Kashmir in a United States (US)-Pakistan joint statement, affirming its commitment to resolve issues with Pakistan bilaterally and welcomed the focus on terror networks in the statement. Asserting that the statement devotes considerable space to the issue of terrorism and that it was for the first time that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Haqqani network are specifically mentioned in it, Spokesperson in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Vikas Swarup said India also read the assurance about these two entities and terrorism in general offered by Pakistan. Daily Excelsior, October 24, 2015.

Terror infrastructure across the border is intact, says BSF: Asserting that Pakistan has not dismantled terror infrastructure which was still intact across the border, the Border Security Force (BSF) said on October 21, that it was closely monitoring the movement along Jammu frontier. "The terror infrastructure is intact across the border. That has not been dismantled. We are carefully examining every activity across the border line and will take appropriate action whatever action is required to be taken," Inspector General (IG), BSF, Jammu Frontier, Rakesh Sharma told reporters in Jammu. The Hindu, October 23, 2015.

More than 40 insurgent groups operating in Manipur, says Deputy CM Gaikhangam: Manipur Deputy Chief Minister (CM) Gaikhangam on October 19 said there are more than 40 insurgent groups operating in the state. Speaking at the 124th Raising Day of Manipur Police in Imphal, he said the number of insurgent groups included factions and Manipur Police had earned a "great reputation" for dealing with the difficult situation like not only in trying to contain insurgency but also in the complex day-to-day law and order problem, a police department press release quoted him as saying. Times of India, October 20, 2015.


NEPAL

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli calls all-party meet to choose President: Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on October 25 (today) called an all-party meet to choose a candidate for the post of President through consensus. The meeting has been called at the Legislature-Parliament building at 2 pm today. Earlier, the Central Working Committee meeting of the main opposition party Nepali Congress (NC) had decided to pitch its candidates for the post of President and Vice-President. Similarly, the Standing Committee meeting of the ruling Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) had also decided to file party's candidacy for the post of President. Himalayan Times, October 25, 2015.


PAKISTAN

23 civilians and five SFs among 33 persons killed during the week in Balochistan: Ten people were killed while several others received injuries when a blast ripped through an Imambargah (Shia place of worship) in Bhaag area of Bolan District in Balochistan on October 22.

At least 11 people, including two children, were killed and more than 20 were injured in a bomb blast that occurred inside a local city bus at Dukani Baba Chowk area on Sariab Road in provincial capital Quetta on October 19.

Three Baloch Republican Army (BRA) militants were killed in an exchange of fire with the Frontier Corps during a search operation together in Tasp area of Panjgur District on October 19. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, October 20-26, 2015.

Indigenously-made 'Burraq' drone kills 21 militants, destroys hideouts in FATA: As many as 21 terrorists were killed when Indigenously-made 'Burraq' drone carried out an operation in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on October 22. According to the ISPR, the 'Burraq' drone fired missiles and destroyed several militant hideouts as well. Sources added that it was the first night strike by Burraq with pinpoint accuracy. The military successfully tested 'Burraq' (flying horse) and test-fired its laser-guided missile 'Barq' (lightning) in March. The News, October 22, 2015.

At least 22 persons killed in suicide blast in Sindh: At least 22 persons including eight children were killed in a suicide blast targetting a 9th Muharram (Shia mourning period) procession near a park in the Lashari area of Jacobabad District in Sindh in the evening of October 23. Police confirmed 40 others including several children, have been injured in the attack. Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Zafar Malik said, "It appears from the evidence collected that it was a suicide attack." He added that a pistol has also been found from the site of the blast. The News, October 24, 2015.

All issues including Kashmir to be resolved by India, Pakistan, says US State Department: A United States (US) State Department official on October 23 said that all issues including Kashmir have to be resolved between India and Pakistan. He added that the US can only facilitate and not provide mediation between both countries to come to some terms. The official further said that any civil-nuclear deal was not discussed during the visit of the Pakistani leadership. He also said that good or bad will have to be decided by the Taliban, whether they are for violence or if they want peace in Afghanistan. The News, October 24, 2015.

Pakistan, US want Afghan Taliban come to the table: The United States (US) and Pakistan on October 22 called upon the Afghan Taliban leaders to enter direct talks with Kabul and work towards a sustainable peace settlement. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and President Barack Obama discussed the importance of continued cooperation against terrorists and violent extremist groups. President Obama affirmed Pakistan's role as a key counter-terrorism partner and recognized the sacrifices that Pakistani civilians, military, and law enforcement personnel have made over the years as they confront terrorism and militant groups. Daily Times, October 23, 2015.

Pakistan could be fifth largest nuclear power by 2025, says Nuclear Notebook Report: According to the Nuclear Notebook Report by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Pakistan now has a stockpile of 110-130 warheads, compared with 90-110 in 2011, and at this rate, it could emerge as the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025. The Nuclear Notebook, one of the most authoritative sources of information on Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, also said that Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and production of fissile material. Times of India, October 22, 2015.

Islamabad with 'tactical nukes' ready to counter Indian aggression, says Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry: Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry while speaking on a television channel on October 20 said that Pakistan is fully capable of answering any aggression from India as it has developed 'short-range tactical nuclear weapons'. He said that Pakistan was ready for a nuclear weapon race with its South Asian rival and ruled out any deal or compromise on the country's nuclear program. Chaudhry said Pakistan knew how to show India the right path as it has developed small tactical nukes to convert any 'adventure into misadventure'. The News, October 21, 2015.


SRI LANKA

Only extremists and LTTE sympathizers against domestic mechanism, says Sri Lankan PM Ranil Wickremesinghe: The Sri Lankan Prime Minister (PM) Ranil Wickremesinghe has said that only the local extremists and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) sympathizers are against the domestic mechanism proposed in the United Nations (UN) resolution on Sri Lanka adopted at the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva last month (September). Participating in the parliamentary debate on the Geneva proposals, the PM said the initiatives, commenced by the Government, aim to unify all communities and heal broken hearts. Colombo Page, October 24, 2015.

Prime Minister tables UNHRC resolution and commission reports in Parliament: Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 20 tabled the resolution adopted at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) as well as the Udalagama and Paranagama Commission Reports in Parliament. The Prime Minister had earlier said that the Government will debate on the UNHRC resolution after tabling the reports. The report of Maxwell Paranagama, deals with issues related to violation of the International Humanitarian Law or War Crimes allegedly committed by both parties and the recommendations to prevent a repetition. Colombo Page, October 21, 2015.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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