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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 39, March 28, 2016

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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No Place for Other Faiths
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On early reports, at least 72 people have been killed and more than 300 injured in a suicide blast inside the Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park in the Iqbal Town area of Lahore, the provincial capital of Punjab Province, on March 27, 2016. Lahore's District Coordination Officer Muhammad Usman stated, "The bomber managed to enter the park and blew himself up near the kids' playing area where kids were on the swings”. Significantly, a large number of people, mostly Christians were present in the park, celebrating Easter [Christendom's holiest day].  

The Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a breakaway faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the suicide attack. JuA ‘spokesperson’ Ehsanullah Ehsan declared, “We had been waiting for this occasion. We claim responsibility for the attack on Christians as they were celebrating Easter. It was part of the annual martyrdom attacks we have started this year.” The operation was codenamed Saut-ul-Raad [Voice of Thunder]. JuA had declared its ‘support’ for Daesh (Islamic State, previously Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, ISIS) in March 2015. 

The bomber involved in the March 27, 2016, attack has been identified as Yousuf, son of Ghulam Farid, a resident of Muzzafargarh District in Punjab. According to preliminary investigations, the bomber had been teaching at a seminary for eight years in Lahore after completing his religious education in Dera Ghazi Khan District. SAIR has noted on numerous occasions in the past that most of the seminaries across Pakistan are breeding grounds for terrorism and Islamist extremism.

Even on the presently known fatalities, the Easter Sunday attack is the second worst ever targeting Christians inside Pakistan. In the deadliest attack on Christian minorities in Pakistan, at least 79 worshippers, including 34 women and seven children, were killed and another 130 were injured when two suicide bombers attacked a Christian congregation at the historic All Saints Church in the Kohati Gate area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province, on September 22, 2013. According to varying media reports, some 600 to 700 people were inside the church at the time of the attack.

There have been at least another four such attacks, resulting in 19 deaths, in the intervening period. The last terrorist attack targeting Christians was on March 15, 2015. At least 15 persons, including 13 Christians and two Policemen, were killed and more than 70 were injured, when two suicide bombers attacked two churches near the Youhanabad neighbourhood in Lahore, sparking mob violence in which two terrorists were killed. Youhanabad is home to more than 100,000 Christians. JuA had claimed responsibility for the attack as well.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 20 terrorist attacks targeting Christians, resulting in at least 128 fatalities, have taken place across Pakistan since 2001, prior to the Easter Sunday Attack. Some of the major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities) among these included:  

March 10, 2010: Six persons, including two women, were killed and seven persons were injured when over a dozen terrorists armed with Kalashnikov rifles, pistols and hand-grenades attacked the office of World Vision International, a US-based Christian aid agency, in the Oghi village of Mansehra District in KP.

September 25, 2002: Seven persons were killed and another three were injured in a terrorist attack on a Christian welfare organisation's office, Idara Amn-o-Insaaf (Institute for Peace and Justice), in Karachi District, the Provincial capital of Sindh Province. Lashkar-e-Islami Mohammadi (LIM), a little-known terrorist group, was blamed for the attack.

August 5, 2002: Six persons were killed and another four were injured in a terrorist attack on a Christian missionary school in the Jhika Gali Town of Murree tehsil (revenue unit) in Rawalpindi District of Punjab Province.

March 17, 2002: Five persons were killed and more than 40 were injured, including the High Commissioner of Sri Lanka to Pakistan, in a grenade attack during the Sunday morning service at the Protestant International Church located between the American and Russian Embassies in the heavily protected area of the Diplomatic Enclave in Islamabad. Amongst those killed were Barbara Green, wife of an American diplomat and her daughter; two Pakistanis and an Afghan. The injured belonged to different countries including USA, Britain, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Afghanistan, Iran, Ethiopia, Iraq and Sri Lanka.

October 28, 2001: 17 Christians – including five children – and a Policeman, were killed and nine persons were injured, when six gunmen opened fire on a church in the Model Town area of Bahawalpur District in Punjab Province.

The Christians constitute a meagre 1.6 percent of Pakistan’s population of 193 million. While they have been victims of terrorist atrocities, they have also been intermittently attacked in mass and targeted violence by Islamist extremists. Christians have, moreover, been systematically targeted by Pakistan’s perverse blasphemy laws, which prescribe a mandatory death sentence for any purported act bringing against Islam and its Prophet to disrepute. On May 24, 2015, Police arrested one Humayun Faisal Masih, a mentally ill person, who was burning newspapers in Sanda, a Christian locality, in Lahore. Muslim onlookers accused him of blasphemy, alleging that some of the pages contained verses of the holy Quran. A number of people gathered outside the Ravi Road Police Station and demanded that the accused be handed over to them. Simultaneously, a mob rampaged through the Christian neighbourhood. An unnamed local Christian stated, “some angry Muslims, some armed with guns, ransacked churches and attacked Christian residences and houses pelting stones… (there was) a horrific and gruesome scene of violence against the innocent women, children, and elderly.” According to reports, local Christians were warned of impending violence by Police, and many had fled the area before the attack began.

Underlining the complicity of the state in such incidents, the Supreme Court had observed, on March 13, 2013, that the Punjab Police had failed to protect the lives and properties of the inhabitants of Joseph Colony in Lahore. Notably, on March 9, 2013, hundreds of protesters turned arsonists and attacked some 160 houses and 80 shops belonging to Christians in Joseph Colony, a predominantly Christian locality in the Badami Bagh area of Lahore, just a day after allegations of blasphemy were levelled against a man in the region.

Christians have been the principal targets for alleged acts of blasphemy. Significantly, then Federal Minister for Minorities’ Affairs, Shahbaz Bhatti, a Christian, was killed on March 2, 2011, by terrorists of Fidayeen-e-Muhammad, a TTP faction, and al Qaeda Punjab Chapter, for his opposition to the country’s blasphemy laws. The Christians are also attacked for opposing often forcible conversions to Islam. Asia Bibi, 46, who has been sentenced to death and has been in prison for the last four years following a conviction for blasphemy, in her memoir Blasphemy, describes how she had been asked to convert to Islam to ‘redeem herself’.

Terrorists and Islamist extremists have issued threats against the Christian community on several occasions. On May 18, 2011, for instance, in the wake of Osama bin Laden’s killing, the TTP vowed to fight with “new zeal” against “Our enemies... NATO, Jews and Christians.” In another such threat, in June 2008, an extremist group, Jesh Ahle-i-Alqiblat al-Jihadi al-Sari al-Alami [Army for the Direction of the Movement of Global Jihad], distributed pamphlets demanding that Christian Pakistanis convert to Islam or face death. The group declared, “every Muslim had a duty to take such action against Christians”. It also called on Muslims to attack and kill Christian foreigners.

Seeds of religious intolerance have been systematically sown in Pakistan since its inception in 1947 – and, indeed, even earlier, during the struggle for independence. There was a further and escalating radicalization during and after the regime of military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq. Since then, Pakistan has witnessed rising attacks against all minorities, including the Christians. According to the Annual Report, 2015, of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), between July 2013 and June 2014, 122 incidents of sectarian violence occurred in Pakistan, resulting in more than 1,200 casualties, including 430 fatalities. The report, thus observed, “Pakistan represents one of the worst situations in the world for religious freedom for countries not currently designated by the U.S. government as ‘countries of particular concern’… Pakistan continued to experience chronic sectarian violence targeting Shi’a Muslims, Christians, Ahmadi Muslims, and Hindus.”

Similarly, the Jinnah Institute of Pakistan in a report titled State of Religious Freedom in Pakistan 2015, stated that, during the period 2012-2015, at least 543 incidents of violence were carried out against religious minorities in Pakistan. Shias were targeted on at least 288 occasions during this period, followed by Hindus (91 occasions), Christians (88 occasions), and Ahamadiyas (76 occasions).

In another development that reiterates the fact that religious extremists have enormous support, national capital Islamabad was turned into a fortress as supporters of Mumtaz Qadri put the city under siege. Qadri was the bodyguard and killer of Salman Taseer, then Governor of Punjab and an advocate of the amendment of Pakistan’s blasphemy laws. In a message on Twitter on March 27, 2016, Director General Inter-Services Public Relations Asim Bajwa disclosed that the Army had been requisitioned by the Government to control situation and secure the ‘Red Zone’, the area which includes the Parliament House, Pakistan Secretariat, Supreme Court, Prime Minister’s House, President’s House, and Diplomatic Enclaves in Islamabad. Qadri was hanged on February 29, 2016. The hanging was followed by protests in most major towns of the country.

The seeds of religious extremism sown over the decades have brought Pakistan to the verge of virtual anarchy. State-backed extremism has made life impossible for minorities and, indeed, for Muslim sects deemed ‘deviant’ by the Sunni majority. Indeed, sectarian violence between Sunni factions is also a growing reality as takfiri ideologies (which arrogate to themselves the right to declare others ‘apostate’) take firm root across the country. State agencies continue to harness Islamist extremism and terrorism to extend their strategic agenda into the country’s neighbourhood – particularly in Afghanistan and India – creating wide spaces for armed extremism that have produced a bloody blowback in Pakistan as well. There is little evidence, however, of any radical review of this ‘strategy’ at present.

SRI LANKA
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Re-drafting for Resolution
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 9, 2016, the Sri Lankan Parliament unanimously, without a vote, approved the change of the present Parliament into a Constitutional Assembly (CA) to draft a new Constitution for the island nation, declaring, "Parliament resolved this day to appoint a Committee of Parliament hereinafter referred to as the 'Constitutional Assembly' which shall consist of all Members of Parliament, for the purpose of deliberating, and seeking the views and advice of the People on a new Constitution for Sri Lanka and preparing a draft of a Constitution Bill for the consideration of Parliament in the exercise of its powers under Article 75 of the present Constitution."

The new Constitution is expected to replace the current executive President-headed Constitution adopted in 1978, which invested broad executive powers in the office of the President. The new Constitution is expected to abolish the executive Presidency and replace it with a Parliamentary system. It could also partially replace the Proportional Representation system by the First Past the Post System. District-wise constituencies are likely to be partially replaced by smaller constituencies and preferential votes for candidates in a party list could be abolished entirely.

On January 9, 2016, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, presenting a resolution to set up a CA, had observed, “We will have the whole Parliament formulating the Constitution unlike the previous instances when the Constitutions were drafted outside Parliament.”

Indeed, for the first time in the post-Independence history of Sri Lanka, Tamil parties and Tamil civil society groups are gearing up for participation in the making of a new Constitution as the Government has officially stated that the new Constitution will provide a “Constitutional Resolution” of the ethnic issue. Tamils did not participate in the making of the 1972 and 1978 Constitutions. In 1972, the Sirimavo Bandaranaike Government had refused to amend the official language clause in the Constitution’s outline. When J.R. Jayewardene changed the Constitution in 1978, the Tamils were asking an independent Eelam, not better representation in a united Lanka.

This time around, the genuine concerns of the Tamils are expected to be addressed. On March 21, 2016, supporting the devolution of power through the new Constitution to provinces within a united Sri Lanka to develop the country, President Maithripala Sirisena stated that devolution of power instead of centralizing it is the practice of developed nations and distributing power is effective in terms of democracy, independence, human rights and fundamental rights. President Sirisena, in his address to the Parliament on January 9, 2016, had observed, "We need a Constitution that suits the needs of the 21st century and make sure that all communities live in harmony." Similarly, on January 15, 2016, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe had noted, "We are ready to devolve power (to minority Tamils) and protect democracy. The Constitutional Assembly will discuss with all, including (Tamil-dominated) provincial councils to have a new Constitution. We will do that in a transparent manner."

To ensure that the constitution-making process is more participatory, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on December 29, 2015, appointed a 24 member Public Representations Committee on Constitutional Reforms (PRCCR) composed of academics, lawyers, civil society representatives and politicians of minority parties, to gather public opinion on Constitutional amendments. The PRCCR began collecting grassroots public opinions on January 18 and completed its work across the country on February 29. Some 5,000 proposals for constitutional change, both written and oral were presented to amend the Constitution. Finally, the report of the Committee along with its recommendations will be submitted to the Cabinet Sub-Committee by April 30.

An undeniably positive environment has been established in the country of late. In a keenly contested Presidential Election  held on January 8, 2015, Maithripala Sirisena, leader of the New Democratic Front (NDF), emerged victorious securing 6,217,162 votes (51.28 per cent) against 5,768,090 votes (47.58 per cent) polled by Mahinda Rajapaksa, the incumbent President and candidate of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA).  Later, in the Parliamentary Elections held on August 17, 2015, voters gave a fractured mandate, with none of the parties securing a simple majority. United National Party (UNP), led by incumbent PM Wickremesinghe, secured 106 seats, falling seven short of a simple majority in a 225-member House; the SLFP secured just 95 seats. The main Tamil political party, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won 16 seats; and the main Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP, People's Liberation Front) won six. However, following a historic agreement on August 20, 2015, between UNP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the incumbent PM Wickremesinghe took oath as the 26th Prime Minister of the island nation on August 21, 2015. The coming together of the two main parties to form a National Unity Government was a major achievement.

In another positive, on September 3, 2015, TNA was declared the main Opposition in the Parliament with its leader R Sampanthan becoming the first lawmaker from the minority community to lead it in the House in 32 years. Speaker Karu Jayasuriya told Parliament: "As the UPFA did not make any claim for the opposition leaders post, I like to inform the house that Mr Sampanthan the leader of the TNA has been recognised as the leader of the opposition."

Further, in a significant shift in policy , on September 24, 2015, Colombo decided to co-sponsor the draft resolution (A/HRC/30/L.29) that was tabled at the 30th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva. Further, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe while addressing the Commonwealth Parliamentarians' Association Regional Seminar for Members of Parliament in Colombo on February 1, 2016, asserted that the Government would not deviate from the Geneva resolution on reconciliation and accountability in any way. Similarly, Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera, while delivering a speech at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington DC on February 25, 2016, stated, "Our government is totally committed to the successful implementation of this resolution, not because of any desire to appease international opinion, but because of our conviction that Sri Lanka must come to terms with the past in order to forge ahead and secure the future the Sri Lankan people truly deserve."

The Government is also in the process of repealing the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and introducing a new counter-terrorism legislation that is in line with contemporary international practices. The Law Commission Department on March 2, 2016, submitted the amended Prevention of Terrorism Draft Bill with human rights safeguards to the three relevant Ministers – Justice and Buddhasasana Minister Dr. Wijayadasa Rajapakshe, Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera and Development Strategies and International Trade Minister Malik Samarawickrema.

In another development, which is expected to have a far reaching impact on the reconciliation process, President Sirisena promised, on January 3, 2016, to provide land to settle internally displaced persons (IDPs). On March 12, 2016, the President handed over 701 acres of land to 700 original land-owners during a ceremony held at Nadeshvar College in Jaffna District. Further, the Task Force on Reconciliation Mechanisms, appointed by the Prime Minister, on March 16, 2016, opened the online submission questionnaire on the tri-lingual website of the Secretariat for Coordinating Reconciliation Mechanisms, at www.scrm.gov.lk. On January 8, 2016, the President pardoned former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadre Sivaraja Jenivan alias Mohommadu Sulthan Cader Mohideen, who tried to assassinate him in 2006.

For years, the political environment for a comprehensive Constitutional reform remained elusive in Sri Lanka. The situation has now changed for the better. It remains to be seen whether the redrafted Constitution will be able to sufficiently accommodate the aspirations all communities in the country, but the opportunity has certainly been created.

 


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
March 21-27, 2016

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

1
0
0
1

INDIA

 

Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
0
1

Chhattisgarh

3
0
1
4

Total (INDIA)

4
0
2
6

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
0
12
12

FATA

0
1
0
1

KP

1
2
0
3

Punjab

72
0
5
77

Sindh

3
0
4
7

Total (PAKISTAN)

76
3
21
100
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Liberation War Denial Crimes Act drafted with provision for five years' imprisonment for denial of facts and settled issues: The Law Commission on March 22 has drafted the Liberation War Denial Crimes Act, 2016 with a provision for five years' imprisonment as the highest punishment for denial of historically established facts and settled issues. The Commission said that any act of undermining, misinterpreting, distorting, disrespecting and running propaganda campaigns against the historical facts about the Liberation War would be deemed as offences under the proposed law. Daily Star, March 23, 2016.


INDIA

Naxal activities continue to be a matter of concern, says UMHA annual report: Naxal-[Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)] activities continue to be a matter of concern with 35 Districts in seven states being badly-hit, according to the annual report of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) for 2015-16. "Left Wing Extremism (LWE) remains an area of concern for internal security of the country," the report submitted to Parliament said. While 106 Districts in 10 States are affected by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) activities in varying degrees, 35 Districts in seven states are the most affected. PTI, March 25, 2016.

Maoists setting up bases in NE, claims UHM Rajnath Singh: Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh on March 22 said intelligence inputs suggested Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) were setting up bases in the North East. “We have got information that in some parts of the North East, Maoists are trying to strike roots. We have to check this (Maoists setting bases in the region),” the UHM added. The Assam Tribune, March 24, 2016.

Lottery becomes new Maoist strategy to recruit children in Jharkhand, says report: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is recruiting children through lucky draw in Jharkhand where names are written down in small bits of paper and randomly picked. This is being dubbed as a new strategy of the adopted by the Maoists as with dwindling forces and unwilling parents, they have found a new recruitment strategy for child soldiers. Deccan Chronicle, March 22, 2016.

Need more security along border in NE, says UHM Rajnath Singh: Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh on March 21 admitted the need to strengthen security the international border in the North-Eastern states to curb the smuggling of arms. “We are trying to ensure border security through all possible mean and to curb cross-border terrorism in the region,” Singh added. Nagaland Post, March 22, 2016.


PAKISTAN

At least 72 persons killed in suicide blast in Lahore: At least 72 people were killed and more than 300 injured in a suicide attack in Lahore on March 27, 2016. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) splinter group Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA) claimed responsibility for the suicide attack. “We claim responsibility for the attack on Christians as they were celebrating Easter,” ‘spokesperson’ of the JuA Ehsanullah Ehsan told over telephone. Tribune, March 28, 2016.

JuD launched official website in December 2015, says report: On December 26, 2015, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) launched a website called nazarpakistan.com. In fact at the launch event which was organised by the newly set up cyber team of the outfit, JuD chief Hafiz Saeed, said that Islamic State (IS) was an example of how the social media helped propagate their cause. One India, March 22, 2016.

353 convicts executed since APS Peshawar attack, Supreme Court told: The Supreme Court was informed on March 22 that as of February 2, 2016, as many as 353 convicts had been executed since the lifting of moratorium on the death penalty by the Federal Government. The information was laid before a two-judge Supreme Court bench, headed by Justice Ejaz Afzal Khan, on behalf of the Interior Ministry by Deputy Attorney General (DAG) Sajid Ilyas Bhatti. The report was, however, quiet about whether the executed convicts also included militants who were convicted by military courts and whose executions began soon after the Army Public School Peshawar attack on December 16, 2014. Dawn, March 23, 2016.


SRI LANKA

There are no Islamist jihadist groups in Sri Lanka, says ICES: A study commissioned by the Colombo-based International Centre for Ethnic Studies (ICES) said that there are no Islamist jihadist groups in Sri Lanka. According to study, the discussions with representative of Thablighi Jamaat, Thawheed & Sufi groups revealed that while there are discontent among Muslim youth, acts of violence are unlikely in the near future. ICES commissioned the study after accusations were made, both from within and outside the Muslim community, that in recent years a jihadist movement was in the making in the Eastern Province. Daily News, March 26, 2016.

'I support devolution of power through new Constitution to provinces within a united Sri Lanka to develop country', says President Maithripala Sirisena: President Maithripala Sirisena on March 21 said that he supports devolution of power through the new Constitution to provinces within a united Sri Lanka to develop the country. He said devolution of power instead of centralizing it is the practice of developed nations and distributing power is effective in terms of democracy, independence, human rights and fundamental rights. Colombo Page, March 22, 2016.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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