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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 7, August 17, 2015
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Punjab:
Proxies Gone Wild
Ajai
Sahni
Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, Institute
for Conflict Management & South Asia Terrorism
Portal
The Home
Minister of Punjab Province, Colonel Shuja Khanzada (Retd.)
and 22 others, including Deputy Superintendent of Police
Shaukat Shah, were killed, and another 23 were injured,
in a suicide attack on August 15, 2015. According to reports,
the attacks took place when between 50-100 people were
attending a jirga at Khanzada’s political office
in the Shadi Khan Village of Attock District. Punjab Inspector
General of Police (IGP) Mushtaq Sukhera subsequently disclosed,
“There were two suicide bombers, one stood outside the
boundary wall and the second one went inside and stood
in front of the Minister. The blast by the bomber standing
outside ripped the wall which caused the roof to fall
flat on the Minister and people gathered there.” Sukhera
added that Police were investigating whether the attacker
inside the building detonated a bomb.
The last
high profile political killing in Punjab was the killing
of Salmaan Taseer, the then Governor
of the Punjab Province, who was killed in Islamabad, the
national capital, on January 4, 2011, by one of his own
body guards, Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri. Qadri was reportedly
incensed by the Governor’s efforts to seek a marginal
dilution of the controversial blasphemy law [a punitive
law against any critic or defamer of the Islamic religion,
Prophet Mohammad or the holy Quran] as a result of which
conviction under the law would not result in a mandatory
death sentence; as also his advocacy for Aasia Bibi, the
Christian woman sentenced to death on November 7, 2010,
for alleged blasphemy.
Significantly,
after assuming the post of Home Minister of the Province
on October 13, 2014, Khanzada had reportedly been involved
in major operations against domestically oriented terrorists
in Punjab, though there was little evidence of any relative
improvement of the security environment as a result. According
to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict
Management (ICM), Punjab recorded at least 186 terrorism-linked
fatalities , including 129 civilians, 45 terrorists and
12 Security Force (SF) personnel in the 308 days under
Home Minister Khanzada, as compared to 109 fatalities,
including 69 civilians, 22 terrorists and 18 SF personnel
in the corresponding period prior to his assuming office.
Indeed, after registering a continuous decline in terrorism-related
fatalities since 2011, Punjab had witnessed a sudden spurt
in 2014, when at least 180 fatalities were registered,
including 132 civilians, 20 SF personnel and 28 terrorists.
In the current year, Punjab has already recorded 107 fatalities,
including 62 civilians, 38 terrorists and seven SF personnel
(data till August 16, 2015).
Khanzada’s
Ministry recorded its biggest ‘success’ on July 29, 2015,
with the killing of Malik Ishaq ‘chief’ of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ),
a terror group which, along with the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP)
remained one of the most lethal domestic extremist formations
operating inside Pakistan, though, unlike TTP, LeJ operated
essentially as a sectarian outfit, uniquely targeting
the non-Sunni Muslim minorities in the country. Ishaq,
his two sons Usman and Haq Nawaz, and 11 others, were
killed in an alleged exchange of fire with the Police
in the Shahwala area of Muzaffargarh District in Punjab.
According to reports, Ishaq and his sons, who had been
arrested by Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) personnel
on July 25, 2015, were taken by the Police to the area
to help them recover weapons and explosives. Police claimed
that the exchange of fire took place when Ishaq’s supporters
allegedly attacked the Police to free Ishaq. Though Ishaq
was freed, he was allegedly killed in the subsequent exchange
of fire along with the others. It is, however, widely
believed that the entire operation was a staged killing.
Meanwhile,
a preliminary report submitted to Chief Minister Shahbaz
Sharif by IGP Mushtaq Sukhera asserted that Home Minister
Khanzada was killed in retaliation to the Malik Ishaq
killing. The Ishaq led LeJ, as SAIR had noted earlier,
was one of several terrorist formations that had enjoyed
the support of the Pakistani establishment over an extended
period of time. He was arrested in 1997 and was implicated
in dozens of cases, but succeeded in obtaining bail in
July 2011, after nearly 14 years in jail. While in jail,
he was believed to have masterminded the 2009 attack on
the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, which killed eight
Pakistanis, though only seven players and an assistant
coach of the targeted team suffered minor injuries. He
was repeatedly placed under house arrest thereafter, and
arrested, again, in 2013, over a series of sectarian attacks.
The worst of these was the January 10, 2013, Quetta (Balochistan)
bombing, targeting a snooker hall patronized by the Shia
Hazara community, in which 92 persons were killed; and
another bombing in Quetta on February 16, 2013, which
killed 89. LeJ claimed the attacks. Nevertheless, Ishaq
again secured bail on March 20, 2014, and was released.
His killing in an apparently staged encounter suggests
that he had ‘crossed the limits’ placed on his group by
its handlers.
Two terrorist
formations have claimed responsibility for the Khanzada
killing: TTP-affiliated Lashkar-e-Islam (LI), which principally
operates in tribal areas of Pakistan where the Pakistan
military has been carrying out massive operation since
June 2014, declared that Khanzada’s assassination was
retaliation for military operations against them. Its
‘spokesperson’ Saluddin Ayubi added, "Such types
of attacks will continue in the future." Further,
Ehsanullah Ehsan, ‘spokesman’ for the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar
(JuA), a breakaway faction of TTP, claiming responsibility
for the attack Tweeted, “The Attock attack is revenge
for the martyrdom of Malik Ishaq shaheed (martyr)
and other mujahideen brothers.”
Punjab
has remained substantially insulated from the high intensities
terrorism experienced in Pakistan’s other provinces, despite
the fact that it is the principal recruiting ground and
staging area for a number of state-backed terrorist groups,
most prominently including the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
– Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) combine, which has long and openly
received state largesse to support its networks in the
Province. The degree of freedom
and Government support various terrorist
formations continue to enjoy in Punjab remains alarming.
For instance, the province continues to host massive JuD
rallies led by its chief and mastermind of the 26/11
Mumbai attacks, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed,
one of the globally most-wanted terrorists. In the latest
of such a series, JuD held a rally in Lahore on August
14, 2015, which was also telephonically addressed by Asiya
Andrabi, chief of Dukhtaran-e-Millat (DeM), a separatist
organization in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir
(J&K).
According
to SATP data compiled till March 2014, there has been
a considerable and increasing presence of at least 57
extremist and terrorist groups in Pakistan’s Punjab Province.
Significantly, on January 14, 2015, Federal Minister of
Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, during a briefing on
the status of the implementation of the National Action
Plan (NAP) to counter terrorism and extremism, disclosed
that the number of proscribed organisations actively engaged
in terrorism and extremism in the Province had reached
95.
Indeed,
out of 195 convicts hanged across Pakistan since December
17, 2014, when the moratorium on the death penalty was
lifted, 135 were from Punjab alone, though only 15 of
these were terrorists. In the latest of such hangings,
on July 29, 2015, eight death row prisoners were executed
in Punjab. While the spectacle of ‘strong action’ against
terrorism is maintained, preferred groups continue to
evade penal action, even as their leaders, such as 26/11
‘masterminds’ Zia-ur-Rahman Lakhvi and Saeed roam free.
Indeed, state apologetics for various ‘good terrorist’
formations continues, and Khanzada was part of this process
of rationalization. Most recently, when at least 15 persons
were killed and another 70 were injured in two bomb blasts
separately targeting two churches in the Youhanabad Town
of Lahore, Khanzada claimed that the terrorists responsible
“received Indian directives and funding”. Crucially, however,
the Minister identified the Shahryar Mehsood Group, which
operates for al-Qaeda, and TTP, as responsible for the
church bombings, and the affiliations and connections
of these groupings are widely known, and do not include
any friendly relations with the Indian state or its agencies,
to whose destruction they have repeatedly sworn.
Till the
time Islamabad continues to differentiate between terror
outfits, targeting those only who are domestically oriented
while providing all tacit support to those which serves
its ‘strategic interest', terrorism will thrive on Pakistani
soil and terrorists will succeed in eliminating those
who will challenge their supremacy.
The Khanzada
killing, like the Peshawar Army School massacre, which
was also blamed by the Pakistani far right establishment
on India, among an interminable succession of other terrorist
atrocities, is essentially part of the continuing cycle
of blowback and retaliation that has fed domestic terrorism
in Pakistan. Ironically, its most prominent victims have
been at least part of this cycle, if not as active supporters,
certainly in their willingness to look the other way while
‘good terrorists’ did the state’s bidding in the past.
|
Strategic
Folly
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Among a
range of indicators of deterioration of the security situation
in Afghanistan came the announcement of the death, at
least two years earlier, of Mullah Omar, the so-called
Amir ul Momineen (Leader of the Faithful) and ‘supreme
commander’ of the Taliban; a contested succession for
leadership of the group; and the rising spectre of the
Islamic State (IS, formerly Islamic State of Iraq and
al Sham, ISIS) in the Af-Pak region. These developments
promise enduring troubles, even as they give signs of
the unraveling of Pakistan’s strategy of orchestrated
negotiations and proxy war against Afghanistan.
On August
8, 2015, terrorists carried out a suicide attack killing
at least 21 people and injuring another 10 in the Khanabad
District of Kunduz Province in Afghanistan. The Taliban
claimed responsibility for the attack.
On August
7, 2015, terrorists carried out a series of attacks across
the national capital Kabul, killing at least 51 people.
In the first attack, a suicide bomber dressed in Police
uniform detonated his explosive vest in a crowd of trainees
outside the Kabul Police Academy, killing at least 27
and injuring over 25. Later, militants detonated an explosives
laden truck near an Army complex, killing 15 and injuring
over 240. In the last of these series of attacks, terrorists
attacked Camp Integrity, which houses US and coalition
troops that help train Afghan forces, killing nine and
injuring 20. The victims included eight civilian military
contractors and a US serviceman. The Taliban claimed responsibility
for two of the three attacks – on the Kabul Police Academy
and Camp Integrity. Though the attack near the Army complex
remained unclaimed, the Taliban is suspected to have been
responsible.
In the
immediate aftermath of the attacks, President Mohammad
Ashraf Ghani in a televised address stated, “We hoped
for peace, but war is declared against us from Pakistani
territory. I ask the government and people of Pakistan
to imagine that a terrorist attack just like the one in
Kabul ... took place in Islamabad and the groups behind
it had sanctuaries in Afghanistan and ran offices and
training centres in our big cities. What would have been
your reaction?” He warned that these attacks would spell
the end of his rapprochement if Islamabad did not respond
strongly.
The United
Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded
at least 355 civilian casualties – 42 deaths and 313 injured
– in the August 7 Kabul attacks. Though the number of
deaths reported by UNAMA is significantly lower than the
deaths reported in the media, UNAMA stressed the fact
that the number of civilian casualties, at 355, was the
highest in a single day since it began systematically
recording such casualties in Afghanistan in 2009.
The security
environment across Afghanistan remains alarming. UNAMA’s
2015 ‘Midyear Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed
Conflict’ released on August 5, 2015, documented 4,921
civilian casualties (1,592 dead and 3,329 injured) in
the first half of 2015, as compared to 4,894 (1,686 dead
and 3,208 injured) during the corresponding period of
2014. In 2013, the number of civilian casualties during
the same period had stood at 3,921 (1,344 deaths and 2,577
injured). Over the same period of 2009, these casualties
stood at 2,491 (1,052 deaths and 1,439 injured).
The UNAMA
report further noted that civilian casualties from suicide
and complex attacks executed by Anti-Government Elements
(AGEs) caused 1,022 civilian casualties (183 deaths and
839 injured) during the first six months of 2015, a 78
per cent increase compared to the first six months of
2014. Similarly, 699 civilian casualties (440 deaths and
259 injured) were reported in incidents of targeted killing
in first six months of 2015, an increase of 57 per cent
compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
The number of civilian casualties caused by Improvised
Explosive Devices (IEDs), stood at 1,108 (385 deaths and
723 injured), a 21 per cent decrease. During the same
period, ground engagements led to 1,577 civilian casualties
(379 deaths and 1,198 injured), a 19 per cent decrease
compared to the corresponding period of 2014. The remaining
515 civilian casualties in 2015 were the result of “explosive
remnants of war” (four per cent), aerial operations (two
percent), and “other” (five per cent).
More worryingly,
in the first six months of 2015, UNAMA documented a 23
per cent increase in women casualties and a 13 per cent
increase in child casualties. Emphasizing the adverse
impact of this development, Danielle Bell, UNAMA Director
of Human Rights, noted,
The
rise in the numbers of women and children killed
and maimed from conflict-related violence is particularly
disturbing. This year, UNAMA recorded the highest
number of children and women casualties compared
to the same period in previous years. All parties
to the conflict must undertake stronger measures
to protect civilians from harm. When the conflict
kills or maims a mother, child, sister or brother,
the repercussions for families and communities are
devastating and long-lasting.
|
Meanwhile,
partial data collated by Institute for Conflict Management
(ICM) shows that violence in all categories has increased,
and also that there has been a visible decline in the
overall security situation. After declines in the total
number of terrorism-related fatalities since 2011, the
numbers began to surge again in 2014, and have already
crossed the five figure mark (10,379) in the current year,
with well over four and half months left and ground conditions
becoming more ‘favorable’ for militants.
Terrorism-related
Fatalities in Afghanistan: 2007-2015
Years
|
ANA*
|
ANP**
|
ISAF***
|
Civilians****
|
Militants*****
|
Total
|
2007
|
209
|
803
|
232
|
1523
|
4500
|
7267
|
2008
|
226
|
880
|
295
|
2118
|
5000
|
8519
|
2009
|
282
|
646
|
521
|
2412
|
4610
|
8471
|
2010
|
519
|
961
|
711
|
2777
|
5225
|
10193
|
2011
|
550
|
1400
|
566
|
3021
|
4275
|
9812
|
2012
|
1200
|
2200
|
402
|
2754
|
2716
|
9272
|
2013
|
560
|
1082
|
161
|
2959
|
2702
|
7464
|
2014
|
413
|
357
|
75
|
3699
|
6030
|
10574
|
2015
|
596
|
267
|
6
|
1747
|
7763
|
10379
|
Total
|
4555
|
8596
|
2969
|
23010
|
42821
|
81951
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till August 16, 2015
|
*ANA:
2007-2013: Source Brookings; 2014-15: Source
Institute for Conflict Management
** ANP: 2007-2012: Source Brookings; 2013-15: Source
Institute for Conflict Management
***ISAF: 2007-2015: Source ISAF website
**** Civilians: 2007 - 2015 (June): Source UNAMA;
2015 (July) onwards: Source Institute for Conflict
Management
****** Militants: 2007-2015: Source Institute
for Conflict Management
|
Significantly,
in July 2015 reports of death of Taliban’s 'supreme commander'
Mullah Omar started resurfacing. There had been continuous
speculation on the subject since 2013, and, indeed, even
earlier, but on July 29, 2015, Abdul Haseeb Sediqi, the
spokesman for the National Directorate of Security (NDS),
the Afghan spy agency, confirmed, “There’s no doubt. We
confirm he is dead. He died in April 2013, two years back,
in Karachi [Pakistan].” Later, on July 31, 2015, White
House released a statement saying, "While the exact
circumstances of his [Mullah Omar] death remain uncertain,
it is clear that his demise, after decades of war and
thousands of lives lost, represents a chance for yet more
progress on the path to a stable, secure Afghanistan."
On the same day, Taliban ‘spokesman’ Zabiullah Mujahid
referring to Omar as "the late leader of the faithful"
confirmed his death. In the same statement he disclosed
that Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour would be Taliban's
new leader. Alhaj Moulavi Jalalludin Haqqani, founder
of the Haqqani Network, a hard-line wing of the Afghan
Taliban, reconfirmed Omar’s death, “…we would like to
state that the passing away of His Excellency the Amir-ul-Momineen
is a huge loss for the Islamic Emirate, the whole Muslim
world and particularly for the Islamic Jihadi movements”.
His son, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is the present 'chief'
of Haqqani Network, was announced as the 'deputy chief'
of the Afghan Taliban.
In the
immediate aftermath of these announcements, reports emerged
of increasing differences within the Taliban, and the
rejection of Mansour as its ‘undisputed leader’. Powerful
Taliban leaders, including Tayib Agha ('chief' of the
Taliban’s Political Office in Qatar), Mullah Zakir (Taliban’s'
military commander') and Omar’s own son Yaqoob, reportedly
resigned in protest, rejecting Mansour as a Pakistani
proxy, and the succession as lacking the endorsement of
the jirga. There are strong and enduring ties between
Taliban’s new chief and Islamabad. Mansour was the head
of the Quetta Shura, which has long operated out of Pakistan's
Balochistan Province with full support of the Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI). Indeed, his association with Pakistan
goes much further, and reports indicate that he studied
at a madrasa (Islamic Seminary) at Jalozai village
in the Nowshera District of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province
in Pakistan.
Acknowledging
the rift, in a 33-minute audio message sent to journalists
on August 1, 2015, by Taliban 'spokesman' Zabiullah Mujahid,
Mansoor asserted that the group's jihad would continue
until its goal to implement an Islamic system in Afghanistan
was accomplished. "We should keep our unity, we must
be united. Our enemy will be happy in our separation.
This is a big responsibility on us. This is not the work
of one, two or three people. This all our responsibility
(sic) to carry on jihad until we establish the
Islamic state."
Another
‘Islamic State’, IS, is however, looming on the horizon,
threatening to capture spaces that have long been under
Taliban’s influence, consolidating significant territorial
gains by defeating Taliban units in
Nangarhar Province. It is widely believed, moreover, that
the growing differences within Taliban will help IS, and
that the turf war between these two outfits will make
Afghanistan more insecure in the near future. As splinters
fall away from Taliban and various Pakistani formations,
including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
the dreaded IS appears to be emerging as the more potent
threat. Significantly, according to the US Department
of State’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, out of the
five perpetrator groups with the most attacks worldwide
in 2014, IS tops the list with 1,083 attacks leading to
6,286 fatalities in five countries; as compared to Taliban’s
involvement in 894 attacks resulting in 3,492 deaths in
two countries. The ‘rising graph’ of IS – if it can be
sustained – is likely to attract more recruits. Omar Samad,
senior adviser to Afghan Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
Abdullah Abdullah, notes, "Some dissatisfied elements
(of the Taliban) have already pledged allegiance to (ISIS).
With Omar out of the equation, more are likely to join."
These worrying
developments have already resulted in the suspension of
what Sushant Sareen has described as the “Pakistan led,
Pakistan owned” ‘peace talks’ between the Taliban and
Kabul, of which the first round was held in the resort
town of Murree, adjacent to Islamabad, on July 7, 2015.
The Afghan Government was represented by Hekmat Khalil
Karzai, the Deputy Foreign Minister, and the Taliban delegation
was led by Mullah Abbas Durrani. Karzai was accompanied
by a delegation including representatives from all the
major players in the government, including at least two
officials representing the CEO, Abdullah Abdullah, and
his deputies. The US and Chinese representatives were
also present as a delegation of the Afghan High Peace
Council (HPC). Though nothing significant emerged from
this meeting, a second round of peace talks was scheduled
to take place on July 31. The disarray around the Pakistan
backed Taliban factions over Mansour’s appointment as
Omar’s successor, however, quickly scuttled the ‘process’,
and Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in an statement
on July 30, 2015, announced, "In view of the reports
regarding the death of (Mullah) Omar and the resulting
uncertainty, and at the request of the Afghan Taliban
leadership, the second round of the Afghan peace talks,
which was scheduled to be held in Pakistan on 31 July
2015, is being postponed."
The ‘peace
process’ was, indeed, astonishing in its very fundamentals,
with Pakistan running the show as ‘facilitator’ even as
it continued to facilitate the mounting of attacks by
its Taliban proxies across Afghanistan. Pakistan’s motivation
and enduring role in supporting terrorism in Afghanistan,
including continuous attacks against the International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops led by USA for
nearly a decade and a half, were widely known, and yet,
the international community has continued to encourage
Pakistan as a critical ‘stakeholder’ in Afghanistan. This
is despite overwhelming cumulative evidence of Pakistani
mischief, including the fact that that Osama bin Laden,
the amir and ideological fountainhead of al Qaeda,
its founder, and the architect of the 9/11 attacks in
the US, was killed
in May 2011, in a US operation in the garrison town of
Abbottabad, less than 62 kilometres from Islamabad, and
a stone’s throw from the Pakistan Military Academy at
Kakul, the country’s top training established for officers,
and the local Army Brigade Headquarters. Mullah Omar is
now reported to have died in Karachi, and it is widely
accepted that he was in the protection of ISI.
This has
placed Kabul under tremendous pressure and forced Afghanistan
to adopt an immensely damaging policy of seeking Islamabad’s
‘cooperation’ to deal with Pakistan’s own proxies. Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani has invested tremendous political
capital in this misconceived approach, despite the active
and vocal opposition of many in his own Government, including
the country’s CEO Abdullah Abdullah. Indeed, the Afghans
are demonstrating increasing impatience over the Pakistan
policy adopted by President Ghani. In May 2015, when Ghani’s
decision led to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) on cooperation between ISI and the Afghan intelligence
service, the NDS there were angry reactions across the
political spectrum in Kabul. The MoU which includes “(intelligence)
sharing, complimentary and coordinated (intelligence operations)
on respective sides” was criticized by several Afghan
Members of Parliament (MP). MP Rahman Rahmani declared
in the House: "… you [Ghani] sign a shameful intelligence
sharing agreement. By signing this agreement you have
made yourself blind and dumb." The Deputy Head of
Parliament's Internal Security Commission, Mohammad Faisal
Sami, added: "The government should have endorsed
its defeat to Pakistan before signing this agreement and
announce it publicly."
Despite
the substantial costs domestic terrorism is inflicting
in Pakistan, there is little to indicate that Islamabad
is willing to abandon its terrorist proxies, or to renounce
terrorism as an instrument of state policy and strategic
extension. President Ghani has sought to talk his way
out of an intractable situation, under tremendous international
pressure and despite tremendous domestic opposition, and
the result has been a mounting wave of Taliban violence
and growing evidence of Pakistani deceit. Continuing down
the same policy path can only be disastrous for Afghanistan.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the international
community and the Afghan President will finally pull their
heads out of the sand and adopt a strategy with a more
rigorous basis in reality.
|
Weekly Fatalities:
Major Conflicts in South Asia
August 10-16, 2015
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Meghalaya
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
3
|
0
|
9
|
12
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
12
|
4
|
2
|
18
|
FATA
|
0
|
3
|
41
|
44
|
KP
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Punjab
|
20
|
1
|
2
|
23
|
Sindh
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
10
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
50,000
Rohingya
people
of
Myanmar
staying
abroad
with
Bangladeshi
passports,
states,
Expatriates
Welfare
and
Overseas
Employment
Minister,
Nurul
Islam:
An
estimated
50,000
Myanmar
Rohingyas
are
staying
in
foreign
countries
using
Bangladeshi
passports,
the
Expatriates
Welfare
and
Overseas
Employment
Minister,
Nurul
Islam
stated
on
August
13.
Islam
blamed
Bangladeshi
officials
for
issuing
passports
to
these
Rohingya
refugees
from
Myanmar.
BD
News24,
August
14,
2015.
Government
is
mulling
over
plan
to
amend
terrorism
related
laws,
says
Foreign
Secretary
M
Shahidul
Haque:
Foreign
Secretary
M
Shahidul
Haque
speaking
at
the
inaugural
session
of
a
workshop
in
Dhaka
city
on
August
12
said
that
the
Government
is
mulling
over
a
plan
to
amend
terrorism
related
laws
in
a
few
weeks
against
the
backdrop
of
growing
menace
of
violent
extremism
and
terrorism.
Dhaka
Tribune,
August
13,
2015.
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen
issues
death
threats
to
19
distinguished
people:
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen,
a
sub-organization
of
Taliban
that
was
never
before
heard
of,
in
a
letter
sent
to
online
news
outlet
bdnews24.com
on
August
12
issued
death
threats
to
19
distinguished
people
of
the
country.
Daily
Observer,
August
13,
2015.
INDIA
LeT
plans
to
target
Air
India
flights
on
Kabul-Delhi-Kabul
sector,
says
intelligence
input:
Lashkar-e-Taiba
(LeT)
plans
to
target
Air
India
flights
on
Kabul-Delhi-Kabul
sector
as
they
are
used
by
senior
officers
of
Indian
Government,
according
to
an
intelligence
input
ahead
of
India's
Independence
Day.
Another
recent
intelligence
input
warns
that
Pakistan
based
terror
groups
are
plotting
to
strike
in
Gujarat
or
Mumbai
around
September-October,
2015.
An
intelligence
warning
in
April,
2015
said
LeT
plans
attack
by
8
to
10
Pakistan
terrorists,
who
may
come
via
sea
route
or
Jammu
and
Kashmir,
at
a
railway
station
or
a
hotel.
Times
of
India,
August
13,
2015.
NSCN-IM
states
that
it
had
agreed
to
share
sovereignty
with
India:
Isak-Muivah
faction
of
National
Socialist
Council
of
Nagaland
(NSCN-IM)
on
August
12
stated
that
it
had
agreed
to
share
sovereignty
with
Government
of
India
(GoI).
NSCN-IM
'general
secretary'
Muivah,
upon
arrival
at
Dimapur
airport,
said
they
have
agreed
in
principle
to
resolve
the
decades-old
Indo-Naga
political
issue
based
on
shared
sovereignty.
He
appealed
to
the
neighbouring
states
to
understand
the
issue
of
the
Naga
people,
which
had
been
prolonged
for
decades.
He
said
the
Naga
people
would
have
to
co-exist
with
the
Assamese,
Arunachalese
and
the
Manipuris.
Telegraph,
August
13,
2015.
Pakistan
violated
ceasefire
192
times
along
the
IB
in
Jammu
&
Kashmir
till
July
26,
2015,
says
Minister
of
State
for
Home
Affairs
Haribhai
Parathibhai
Chaudhary:
Union
Minister
of
State
for
Home
Affairs
Haribhai
Parathibhai
Chaudhary
said
in
a
written
reply
to
Lok
Sabha
(Lower
House)
on
August
11
said
that
Pakistan
violated
ceasefire
192
times
along
the
international
Border
(IB)
in
Jammu
&
Kashmir
till
July
26,
2015.
In
2015,
till
July
26,
there
were
192
ceasefire
violations
along
the
international
border
in
J&K,
which
resulted
in
death
of
three
civilians
and
one
BSF
personnel,
Minister
said.
Times
of
India,
August
12,
2015.
NEPAL
No
one
could
stop
constitution
from
being
promulgated,
says
UCPN-M
Chairman
Pushpa
Kamal
Dahal:
Unified
Communist
Party
of
Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M)
Chairman
Pushpa
Kamal
Dahal
aka
Prachanda
said
that
no
one
could
stop
the
new
Constitution
from
being
promulgated
at
this
point
of
time.
Kantipur Online,
August
14,
2015.
PAKISTAN
41
militants
and
three
SFs
among
44
persons
killed
during
the
week
in
FATA:
More
than
40
militants
were
killed
and
many
others
injured
in
ground
and
aerial
offensives
launched
by
Security
Forces
(SFs)
in
Shawal
Valley
area
of
North
Waziristan
Agency
(NWA)
of
Federally
Administered
Tribal
Areas
(FATA)
on
August
16.
At
least
three
security
personnel
were
killed
when
an
Improvised
Explosive
Device
(IED)
went
off
on
August
12
in
Sandana
area
of
Tirah
Valley
in
Khyber
Agency.
Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
Central
Asia
Online;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier
Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
August
11-17,
2015.
12
civilians
and
four
SFs
among
18
persons
killed
during
the
week
in
Balochistan:
Three
Frontier
Corps
(FC)
personnel
and
two
terrorists
were
killed
in
a
clash
between
the
Security
Forces
(SFs)
and
militants
in
Qilla
Kurd
area
of
Chaghi
District
in
Balochistan
on
August
16.
A
tribal
elder,
Ali
Muhammad
Hassani,
was
killed
along
with
his
son
and
two
other
colleagues
when
unidentified
militants
opened
fire
at
his
convoy
in
Jorri
Cross
area
of
Surab
tehsil
(revenue
unit)
in
Kalat
District
on
August
12.
At
least
four
unidentified
dead
bodies,
including
two
of
men
and
as
many
women,
were
recovered
from
Killi
Paind
Khan
area
of
provincial
capital
Quetta
on
August
11.
Levies
personnel
claimed
to
have
recovered
three
unidentified
dead
bodies
from
the
Pishin
District
on
August
11.
Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
Central
Asia
Online;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier
Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
August
11-17,
2015.
Punjab
Home
Minister
Colonel
(retd)
Shuja
Khanzada,
22
others
killed
in
suicide
attack:
Two
suicide
attackers
on
August
16
killed
Punjab
Home
Minister
Colonel
(retd)
Shuja
Khanzada
and
at
least
20
other
people,
after
detonating
a
bomb
at
a
meeting
the
Minister
was
attending
in
the
village
of
Shadi
Khan
in
Attock
District
of
Punjab.
23
others
persons
were
also
injured.
Lashkar-e-Islam,
(LI)
claimed
responsibility
for
the
attack
and
said
it
was
retaliation
for
military
operations
against
them
in
Khyber
Agency.
The News,
August
17,
2015.
386
criminals
eliminated
this
year
in
Karachi
operation:
Police
have
'neutralised'
more
individuals
and
gangs
allegedly
involved
in
heinous
offences
in
Karachi,
the
provincial
capital
of
Sindh,
in
the
first
seven
months
of
the
current
year
than
the
criminals
they
had
eliminated
last
year.
According
to
the
performance
report
on
the
ongoing
Karachi
operation
prepared
by
the
Sindh
Home
Department,
Police
have
already
recorded
935
shootings
against
criminal
gangs
and
individuals
by
the
end
of
July,
which
are
66
more
than
the
869
encounters
last
year.
A
total
of
596
gangs
have
been
busted
-
118
more
than
the
478
gangs
eliminated
last
year,
while
386
'criminals'
have
been
'neutralised'
-
125
more
than
the
alleged
criminals
gunned
down
in
2014.
Dawn,
August
17,
2015.
Al
Qaeda
leader
Ayman
al-Zawahiri
pledges
allegiance
to
new
Afghan
Taliban
'chief'
Mullah
Mohammad
Akhtar
Mansoor:
Al
Qaeda
leader
Ayman
al-Zawahiri,
in
an
online
audio
message,
pledged
allegiance
to
the
new
head
of
the
Afghan
Taliban
Mullah
Mohammad
Akhtar
Mansoor.
"We
pledge
our
allegiance
...
(to
the)
commander
of
the
faithful,
Mullah
Mohammad
Akhtar
Mansoor,
May
God
protect
him,"
said
Ayman
al-Zawahiri.
The
authenticity
of
the
recording
could
not
be
immediately
verified,
but
it
had
all
the
stamps
of
an
al
Qaeda
video.
Daily Times,
August
14,
2015.
JuD
still
placed
on
suspect
list,
Government
tells
Senate:
The
Government
told
the
Senate
(Upper
House)
on
August
12
that
Jama'at-ud-Da'wah
(JuD)
was
still
placed
on
the
suspect
list
of
groups
and
that
its
ex-nomenclature
was
Lashkar-e-Taiba
(LeT),
as
Pakistan
People's
Party
(PPP)
Senator
Farhatullah
Babar
said
permitting
banned
outfits
to
work
under
different
names
undermined
the
state's
credibility
to
fighting
militancy.
The News,
August
13,
2015.
CSF
may
not
be
possible
beyond
2015,
says
US:
The
United
States
(US)
on
August
11
indicated
to
Pakistan
that
further
extension
in
the
Coalition
Support
Fund
(CSF)
beyond
2015
may
not
be
possible.
The
issue
about
the
future
of
CSF,
according
to
a
defence
source,
was
discussed
at
the
23rd
Defence
Consultative
Group
Meeting
(DCG)-Interim
Progress
Review
(IPR)
held
at
the
defence
ministry
on
August
11.
Principal
Deputy
Secretary
of
Defence
Ms
Kelly
Magsamen
led
the
US
delegation
comprising
officials
of
the
defence
and
state
departments.
Dawn,
August
12,
2015.
Organisers
of
terrorist
attacks
still
exist
in
Pakistan,
says
Afghanistan
President
Ashraf
Ghani:
Following
the
recent
wave
of
attacks
in
Kabul
that
killed
at
least
56
people,
Afghan
President
Ashraf
Ghani
claimed
on
August
10
that
the
"organisers
of
terrorist
attacks
and
terrorist
centres
still
exist
in
Pakistan".
"Pakistan
still
remains
a
breeding
ground
from
where
mercenaries
send
us
messages
of
war,"
President
Ghani
said
at
a
press
conference.
"Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif
promised
me
the
enemies
of
Afghanistan
would
be
the
enemies
of
Pakistan.
We
want
this
commitment
to
be
honoured".
Tribune,
August
11,
2015.
SRI
LANKA
President
Maithripala
Sirisena
reiterates
that
former
president
Mahinda
Rajapaksa
will
not
be
appointed
as
Prime
Minister:
Sri
Lankan
President
Maithripala
Sirisena
on
August
13
reiterated
that
the
former
president
Mahinda
Rajapaksa
will
not
be
appointed
as
the
Prime
Minister
even
if
the
Sri
Lanka
Freedom
Party
(SLFP)
wins
a
majority
of
seats
at
the
upcoming
parliamentary
elections.
Colombo Page,
August
14,
2015.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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