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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 37, March 14, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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LWE:
Challenging Reverses
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On March
11, 2017, at least 12 personnel of the 219th battalion
of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed
and another four injured when Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist)
cadres ambushed a road opening party in the dense forests
near Kottacheru village under Bhejji Police Station in
the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh. Commenting on the
attack, acting CRPF Director General (DG), Sudeep Lakhtakia
stated, "The troops were part of the road clearing
party that has been securing an under-construction road
between Bhejji and Kottacheru. They were ambushed by Naxals
[Left Wing Extremists, LWEs] who set off multiple hidden
IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) on the ground and
opened fire. The squad effectively retaliated before twelve
made the supreme sacrifice." However, no casualty
among the Maoists was reported. Meanwhile, the Maoists
looted six INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifles,
four AK-47 assault rifles, a light machine gun, at least
1,587 rounds of ammunition, an Under-Barrel Grenade Launcher
(UBGL), a 51mm mortar, and two radio sets from the slain
personnel.
On March
8, 2017, four Maoists were killed in an encounter with
personnel of the 205th battalion of the Commando Battalion
for Resolute Action (CoBRA) of the CRPF in the forest
area of Baskatwa under Gurpa Police Station in the Gaya
District of Bihar. Acting on a tip-off of a meeting of
top Maoist leaders in the area, the Security Forces (SFs)
launched an operation. On seeing SFs, the rebels opened
fire, leading to an encounter in which the four Maoists
were killed. SFs recovered the rebels’ bodies along with
their arms, including two INSAS rifles, one Self Loading
Rifle (SLR) and one AK-47. The slain Maoists were identified
as Anil aka Deepak, ‘zonal commander’ of the ‘Magadh
area committee’, Rajesh Ravidas, a ‘sub-zonal commander’;
Nepali Yadav and Uttam.
On February
1, 2017, the Maoists triggered a landmine explosion near
Mungarbhumi in the Koraput District of Odisha, killing
eight Police personnel and injuring another five. The
explosion targeted a Police van carrying 13 Police personnel,
on its way to the Police Training College in Angul District.
According
to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), at least 92 persons have been killed
in Left Wing Extremism-linked violence across the country
in 2017 thus far (data till March 13, 2017). These included
23 civilians, 27 SF personnel and 42 LWEs. During the
corresponding period of 2016, such fatalities stood at
111 (27 civilians, 19 SF personnel and 65 LWEs). There
is thus a marginal improvement in terms of overall fatalities
and, more importantly, civilian deaths. However, the dwindling
ratio of SFs to LWEs killed is definitely worrisome. SFs
have secured a kill ratio of just 1:1.55 during the current
year, thus far, as against 1:3.55 during the corresponding
period of 2016, and 1:3.7 through 2016.
There were
a total of 433 fatalities in 2016 (123 civilians, 66 SF
personnel, 244 LWEs) in LWE-linked violence across India,
as against 251 fatalities (93 civilians, 57 SF personnel,
101 LWEs) in 2015. After recording a decline in overall
fatalities for two consecutive years, overall fatalities
saw a steep increase through 2016, and were the highest
recorded since 2011 when 602 fatalities were recorded.
Maoist
activities [LINK: MAP] were reported from 104 Districts
in 13 States in 2016, and have already been recorded from
64 Districts in 14 States in 2017.
These numbers,
however, appear to be significant underestimates. According
to data provided by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs
(UMHA), at least 500 deaths (213 civilians, 65 SF personnel,
222 LWEs) were reported from across the country in 2016,
as against 319 deaths (171 civilians, 59 SF personnel,
89 LWEs) in 2015 in LWE-linked violence. There were another
79 fatalities (32 civilians, 14 SF personnel, 33 LWEs)
during the first two months of 2017. During the corresponding
period of 2016, there were 99 fatalities (39 civilians,
10 SF personnel, 50 LWEs).
According
to UMHA, at least 106 Districts in 10 States were Maoist
affected. The UMHA assessment notes,
The States of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and
Bihar are considered severely affected. The States
of West Bengal, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are
considered partially affected. The States of UP
[Uttar Pradesh] and MP [Madhya Pradesh] are considered
slightly affected. There is major improvement in
Andhra Pradesh, which was considered severely affected
earlier. The CPI (Maoist) are making forays into
Southern States of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu
and planning to link up the Western Ghats to the
Eastern Ghats through these states. The CPI (Maoist)
are planning to expand their area of activities
and carve out a base for themselves in the tri-junction
of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. They are attempting
incursions into Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, which
has serious long-term strategic implications.
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The significant
increase in number of civilians killed (UMHA data) – 24.56
percent – in 2016 as against fatalities in this category
in 2015 gives cause for concern. The primary reason for
this steep rise is the growing belief among the Maoists
that more and more civilians are acting as ‘police informers’,
and that SFs are mostly dependent on local information
in their anti-Maoist operations. The continuous
losses the rebels have suffered at
the hands of SFs underline and reinforce their belief.
In the
most successful operations ever conducted by the SFs against
the CPI-Maoist, since its formation in September 2004,
SFs killed at least 30 Maoists in two successive encounters
in the Bejingi Forest area, between Ramgarh and Panasput,
in the Malkangiri District of Odisha on October 24 and
27, 2016. The slain Maoists included Bakuri Venkata Ramana
Murthy aka Ganesh aka Prasad aka
Ramireddy, ‘official spokesman’ of the Andhra Odisha Border
Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC) and ‘secretary’ of the
‘east division unit’ of the party; and Chemella Krishnaiah
aka Bhaskar aka Daya, 'secretary' of the
Koraput-Srikakulam 'joint division' of the AOBSZC.
Indeed,
CPI-Maoist’s 'East Division secretary’, Pratap Reddy aka
Ramchandra Reddy aka Appa Rao aka Chalapathi,
in an interview published on July 21, 2016, stated, “I
must add that in the conspiracy to eliminate the Maoists
party, the ruling classes and the State Government have
been exploiting people in the tribal areas by converting
them as police informer and agents. Such people are being
given arms by the police and a special police officer
(SPO) network created. It is such elements that we are
eliminating.”
Not surprisingly,
most of the civilians killed were branded as 'police informers'.
According to UMHA data, 123 of the 213 civilians killed,
i.e. 57.74 per cent, in 2016 were of alleged 'police informers'.
In 2015, the proportion of supposed 'police informers'
killed stood at 55.55 per cent. This proportion has been
increasing steadily since 2013, when it was 40.07 per
cent, rising to 40.99 per cent in 2014. Significantly,
SFs have always denied that targeted civilians were ‘police
informers’ and have argued that Maoists are killing civilians
to infuse fear among them and, in turn, secure their support
at a time when they are facing increasing setbacks.
Indeed,
through 2016, SFs continued to strengthen their position
in their fight against LWEs. According to UMHA data, the
kill ratio in 2016 stood at 1:3.41 in favour of SFs, more
than double the ratio in 2015 (1:1.50). At its worst,
the ratio had dropped to 1:0.59 in 2007. The number of
encounters with Police has also increased from 247 in
2015 to 328 in 2016, clearly indicating more engagement
of the SFs' on the ground. On the other hand, during the
same period, the number of attacks on SFs carried out
by the Maoists came down from 118 in 2015 to 111 in 2016.
Similarly, incidents of snatching of arms came down from
18 in 2015 to just three in 2016. SFs recovered 800 arms
in 2016 in addition to 724 in 2015. 1,840 Maoists were
arrested through 2016, in addition to 1,668 arrests in
2015. Mounting SF pressure has also resulted in significant
surge in the number of Maoist surrenders, which increased
from 570 in 2015 to 1,442 in 2016.
Further,
while the Maoists held 41 'Jan Adalats' (‘People’s
Courts’, kangaroo courts organized by the rebels) in 2015,
the number fell considerably in 2016, to 21. The number
of 'jan adalats' has been continuously declining
since 2014, indicating diminishing control over areas
in which such kangaroo courts could be organized.
Acknowledging
their diminishing influence, CPI-Maoist 'East Division
secretary', Pratap Reddy, in his July 21, 2016, interview,
admitted,
The multi-pronged attacks by the state government
through its security forces as well as own mistakes
has led to the Maoists being in the situation now...
we have faced setbacks... I would like to remind
you that the party has faced difficult times in
the past and regained its strength and lost glory...
These hard times are only temporary... I can confidently
say that the party will overcome this situation...
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The recent
surge in successful major
attacks against SFs is a clear demonstration
of the Maoist commitment to such 'pledges'. Though the
respective State Governments and the Union Government
have adopted several
measures during last many years to
contain this menace, they have failed to address several
other challenges. Most importantly, though the Central
Government has deployed more than "100 Battalions
of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and a number of
CoBRA Teams in LWE affected States" as "the
strategy of the Government is aimed at addressing security
vacuum in LWE affected areas" it has so far failed
to take along the respective State Governments in enhancing
their Police strength and quality. According to the latest
data made available by the Bureau of Police Research
and Development (BPR&D), none of the Maoist-affected
States has been able to achieve its sanctioned Police
strength. For instance, Chhattisgarh, the worst LWE-affected
state has a police-population-ratio (policemen per hundred
thousand population) of 214.92, against the sanctioned
strength of 255.39. At the bottom end among Maoist affected
States, Bihar has a ratio of 90.68, as against a sanction
of a low 119.17. Similarly, the Police-area-ratio (policemen
per 100 square kilometers area) is abysmal. However, among
the Maoist affected states, Bihar has the best Police-area
ratio at 99.61 (though much lower than the sanctioned
strength of 130.92), while Andhra Pradesh has the worst
ratio, at 30.95 (against the sanctioned strength of 36.93).
More disturbingly, there is an acute shortage at the level
of Police leadership as none of these States have a sanctioned
strength of IPS (Indian Police Service) officers in position.
Chhattisgarh has the lowest deficit – 12.62 per cent –
among IPS ranks, while Odisha has the worst – 42.02 per
cent. The national average in all these categories is
itself dismal.
Indeed,
past experience has shown that major insurgencies in India,
prominently including Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Tripura,
have been successfully defeated with the help of strong
State Police Forces. It is, consequently, imperative that
existing deficits be urgently addressed – both in terms
of quality and the quantity – so that SFs can further
intensify their operations on the ground, irrespective
of the occasional
reverses they have suffered. It is
necessary, moreover, that SFs learn from and avoid the
repetitive mistakes that have characterized the most significant
of their misfortunes, as each major rebel success bolsters
the sapping morale of the Maoists, and creates potential
for new recruitment and resurgence.
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Unending
Impasse
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March
6, 2017, three protestors were killed in Police firing
at Maleth, a Village Development Committee (VDC) in Saptari
District, as Police tried to chase away the cadres of
the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) protesting
against a mass meeting of the main opposition Communist
Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) as part
of its campaign for local level elections. Another 25
UDMF cadres and three Policemen were also injured in the
clash. The death toll, later, rose to five, as two persons
succumbed to their injuries, one on March 8, 2017, and
another on March 10, 2017, in the course of their treatment
at the BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences.
Irked by
the Saptari incident, UDMF – which consists of seven Madhes-based
parties including the National Madhes Socialist Party
(NMSP), Nepal Sadbhawana Party (NSP), Madhesi Janaadhikar
Forum- Republican (MJF-R), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party
(TMDP), Sadbhawana Party (SP),Tarai Madhes Sadbhawana
Party (TMSP) and Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal (FSF-N)
– announced a two-day general strike in the Tarai
region at an emergency meeting held
in Kathmandu, on March 6, 2017. UDMF leaders also threatened
to withdraw their support to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led
Government. UDMF’s constituent parties have a total of
39 votes in Parliament, and have been demanding an amendment
to the Constitution, changing the demarcation of Districts
and constituencies before the holding of local level elections.
The Constitution Amendment Bill primarily deals with the
aspirations of ethnic Madhesis and Tharus on the delineation
of provinces in the newly established federal system.
UDMF cadres
restarted taking to the streets on February 21, 2017,
protesting the announcement of the dates for local elections
by taking out a torch rally in Rajbiraj, the District
headquarters of Saptari. On February 20, 2017, a cabinet
meeting held at Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal's official
residence in Kathmandu decided to hold the local level
election across the country in a single phase on May 14,
2017, amid opposition from the agitating Madhes-based
political parties. Significantly, Prime Minister Dahal
had given an assurance on February 17, 2017, that he would
work on election preparations and the Constitutional Amendment
simultaneously. On February 19, 2017, Dahal had reiterated
that he would declare an election date only after reaching
an agreement with the agitating Madhes-based parties.
The conflict
escalated when UDMF cadres clashed with the Police on
February 26, 2017, as they staged a demonstration at Gaur,
the Rautahat District headquarters, in a bid to thwart
a function being organized by the CPN-UML. Further, on
March 2, 2017, CPN-UML and UDMF cadres clashed at Rajbiraj
in Saptari District while the former were distributing
pamphlets. Again, on March 3, 2017, UDMF cadres tarred
the face of CPN-UML District Committee member Pratap Narayan
Chaudhary, who, among other CPN-UML cadres, was distributing
pamphlets at Machha Hatiya in Saptari District.
Earlier,
protesting against the adoption of the new Constitution
on September 20, 2015, the Madhesis had blockaded
border points with India from September 23, 2015 and only
ended the blockade on February 5, 2016, after 135 days.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia
Terrorism Portal (SATP), 32 persons, including 29
civilians and three Security Force (SF) personnel, were
killed in blockade-related violence.
On November
29, 2016, in order to end the political logjam, the Communist
Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre)-led Government
registered
a seven-point Constitution Amendment Bill at the Parliament
Secretariat after the Madhesi parties had served an ultimatum,
which ended on November 28, 2016, to bring an amendment
proposal.
However,
the Government's move came amidst strong objections from
the main opposition party, the CPN-UML. In particular,
the party objected to the proposal to change boundaries
of Province No. 4 and Province No. 5. Significantly, on
December 1, 2016, CPN-UML started to obstruct Parliamentary
proceedings, terming the Constitution Amendment Bill anti-national.
Since then, nine opposition parties including CPN-UML
have obstructed House business, demanding that local level
elections be held before the Constitution Amendment process.
On February
20, 2017, in order to appease these opposition parties,
the Government decided to hold the local level elections
on May 14, 2017, after a gap of 20 years. The last local
elections in Nepal had been held in May 1997. Remarkably,
nearly three months after the registration of the Constitution
Amendment Bill, with the opposition parties softening
their stance and allowing deliberations on it, Parliament
finally began general discussions on the Bill on February
23, 2017.
The opposition
parties have, however, already declared that they will
not allow the Bill to be endorsed by the House. On February
23, 2017, CPN-UML Chairperson K.P. Sharma Oli stated that
his party would not let Parliament pass the Constitution
Amendment Bill as it was ‘against the people’s will’,
a position he reiterated on February 26, 2017. Meanwhile,
on March 7, 2017, CPN-UML Secretary Pradeep Gyawali warned
“We demand that the Government create political and administrative
environment to hold the local polls. The elections can
be and must be held, as the failure to conduct the polls
will lead to the new Constitution's failure.” Moreover,
turning down the Government’s plea to halt its election
campaign and demanding that Government ensure full security
to party rallies, CPN-UML senior leader Jhalnath Khanal
declared, on March 8, 2017, “We have demanded that the
government ensure full security to peaceful party rallies.
If the government fails to perform its duty and we have
to defend ourselves, the situation might become complex.”
Significantly, CPN-UML’s campaign, which was halted for
three days following the Saptari incident, resumed from
Hetauda on March 10, 2017.
Exerting
pressure on the political parties to expedite preparations
for elections, the Supreme Court ruled, on February 22,
2017, that it is constitutionally mandatory to hold all
three tiers of elections – local, provincial and federal
– within the stipulated date of January 21, 2018. Further,
on March 3, 2017, the Supreme Court ordered the Government
to furnish a written statement about the Government's
preparations for holding all three tiers of elections
in line with the provisions of the new Constitution.
Meanwhile, in view of the upcoming local elections, Election
Commission (EC) spokesman Surya Prasad Sharma announced,
on March 9, 2017, that the Election Commission would deploy
the chief election officer, election officers and other
support staff to the ground from April 16, 2017.
However,
at a meeting held in Kathmandu on February 24, 2017, the
Federal Alliance, a coalition of Madhes-based and other
ethnic political parties and organizations, asserted that
the Alliance could not accept local level polls. Further,
on March 4, 2017, the Alliance reiterated that the local
level elections announced for May 14 should be postponed
as they had been announced in a hurry. On March 7, 2017,
the Alliance gave a seven-day ultimatum to the Government
to endorse the Constitution Amendment Bill with revisions
and withdraw the decision to hold the polls. It also decided
to withdraw support to the Government if the deadline
was not met. Although the Government enjoys a majority
in Parliament without the support of the Alliance, the
latter has been extending its support all the same. 41
lawmakers belong to the constituent parties of the Federal
Alliance.
On March
8, 2017, UDMF submitted a five-point memorandum to Prime
Minister Dahal demanding the withdrawal of the local elections’
programme, Amendment of the Constitution, keeping the
local level structure within the provincial jurisdiction
and implementing the three-point agreement reached during
the formation of the Government. The Front also demanded
a high level commission be formed to probe the Saptari
incident, and steps be initiated to punish the guilty,
declare the deceased martyrs, compensate the bereaved
families and provide free treatment to the injured. The
Front warned that it would withdraw support to the incumbent
Government if its demands were not addressed within seven
days. Dahal had assured the UDMF leaders that he would
hold discussion with the ruling parties and the opposition
and decide accordingly.
However,
after a meeting with ruling coalition members on March
1, 2017, Prime Minister Dahal disclosed, “The parties
have made it clear that they would vote against the Constitution
Amendment Bill.” Further, on March 9, 2017, emphasizing
the inevitability of the elections, Dahal said, “The new
Constitution has ensured rights of the legislative, the
executive and the judiciary to the citizens at the grassroots.
And to implement the Constitution, elections are the only
way out.”
Prime Minister
Pushpa Kamal Dahal is under tremendous pressure with the
main opposition party CPN-UML warning of stringent protests
if the local polls were not held within the stipulated
date and the agitating Madhes-based parties threatening
to withdraw support and intensify protests after the seven
day ultimatum if the Government failed to meet their demands.
As election preparations proceed, the impasse is likely
to continue.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
March
6-12, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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INDIA
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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2
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0
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3
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5
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Manipur
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1
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0
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2
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3
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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Bihar
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0
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0
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4
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4
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Chhattisgarh
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1
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12
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0
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13
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Total (INDIA)
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4
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12
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9
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25
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PAKISTAN
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Balochistan
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0
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1
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0
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1
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KP
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0
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2
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15
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17
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Total (PAKISTAN)
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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