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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 47, May 22, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Border
Disorder
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Two Frontier
Constabulary (FCB) soldiers were injured in cross-border
firing in the Kurram Agency of Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, from the Khost Province
of Afghanistan on May 12, 2017. The attack took place
as FCB personnel were undertaking construction of a wall
along the border on the Pakistani side.
This is
the second cross-border attack coming from Afghanistan
over the past week. At least 12 persons — 10 civilians
and one sepoy each from the Pakistan Army and the Frontier
Corps (FC) — lost their lives and around 40 others were
injured in firing and shelling by Afghan forces in Kali
Luqman and Kali Jahangir areas of Chaman in Qilla Abdullah
District of Balochistan on May 5, 2017, while Pakistani
officials were carrying out a census in the area. An Inter-Services
Public Relations (ISPR) press release tweeted by its Director
General (DG) Major General Asif stated, “Afghan border
police opened fire on FC troops detailed for security
of census in a village along Chaman border… Since 30th
April, Afghan Border Police had been creating hurdles
in conduct of census in divided villages of Killi Luqman
and Killi Jahangir in Charnan area on Pakistani side of
the border. This was done despite the fact that Afghan
authorities had been informed well in advance and coordination
was carried out through diplomatic and military channels
for conduct of census."
An Afghan
official, Zia Durrani, talking to journalists in Afghanistan,
alleged that Pakistan was, on the pretext of census, undertaking
“malicious activities and was provoking villagers against
the (Afghan) Government”.
Later in
the day, an exchange of fire was reported at two check
posts at Torkham Border crossing between Pakistan and
Afghan armed forces in the Khyber Agency of FATA. According
to the details shared by officials, Afghan forces kept
firing at Iqbal Post and Post II at Torkham Border for
at least an hour. Pakistan also retaliated to the firing.
Meanwhile, the political administration imposed a curfew
in the area suspending NATO supplies and Afghan Transit
Trade activities.
In a face-saving
measure on May 7, 2017, the Pakistan Army claimed that
it had killed more than 50 Afghan soldiers in a clash
on the Chaman border crossing in the Qilla Abdullah District
of Balochistan on May 5. Frontier Corps (FC) Major General
Nadeem Ahmed stated, "We are not pleased to tell
you that five Afghan check posts were completely destroyed
more than 50 of their soldiers were killed and over 100
were wounded… We are not happy for their losses but we
were forced to retaliate." However, Afghanistan quickly
denied the claim. Sediq Sediqqi, an Afghan Government
spokesman tweeted, "Very false claims by Pakistani
Frontier Corps that as many as 50 Afghan soldiers lost
their lives in Pak (Pakistan) retaliation totally rejected."
Afghanistan Ambassador to Pakistan Omar Zakhilwal further
stated that only two Afghan soldiers were slain and seven
others injured.
In the
aftermath of the firing, the Pakistan Government closed
down all the Pak-Afghan border-crossings for an indefinite
period. Earlier, Pakistan had closed its borders with
Afghanistan at Chaman and Torkham on February 18, 2017,
following the suicide attack on the Lal Shahbaz Qalandar
shrine in Sehwan and a series of terrorist attacks across
the country, blaming Afghanistan-based Pakistani terrorists
for the attacks. On March 7, 2017, Pakistan temporarily
opened its border crossings with Afghanistan at Torkham
and Chaman.
After a
month of closure, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ordered
the reopening of the border on March 20, 2017. The Prime
Minister declared that links of recent terror attacks
had been traced back to Afghanistan, “but Pakistan is
reopening the border as a goodwill gesture.”
The recent
skirmish along the border started on June 12, 2016, over
the construction of ‘Pakistan Gate’ at the Torkham border
crossing. Both sides resorted to cross-border firing,
blaming each other for initiating the clash. The construction
of the gate appeared to have angered the Afghan Government.
Tension prevailed as both sides traded small arms and
mortar fire across the border for three days. By the time
a ceasefire was agreed to by Pakistan and Afghanistan
on June 15, four soldiers (including one Afghan border
police officer and a Pakistan Frontier Corp’s Major Ali
Jawad Changezi) had been killed and at least 40 injured.
The Torkham border reopened on June 18, after five days
of closure.
The under-construction
border gate, including a trench and walls, has been a
major bone of contention between the neighbouring countries.
Afghanistan contends that the installation of a physical
barrier would make this border permanent, while Pakistan
had announced, for the first time in September 2005, that
it had plans to build a 2,400-kilometre fence along its
border with Afghanistan to check armed militants and drug
smugglers moving between the two countries. The conflict
over the legitimacy of the Durand Line between Pakistan
and Afghanistan is more than a century old. The Durand
Line, named after British diplomat Mortimer Durand, was
drawn in 1893 as the international border between British
India and Afghanistan in an agreement with Afghan ruler
Abdur Rahman Khan. No Afghan Government has accepted the
border since the creation of Pakistan in 1947, on the
ground that the agreement with the British lapsed after
their withdrawal from their Indian empire, and because
it divides the Pashtun ethnic homeland and tribal communities
living both side of the border. These tribal populations
are accustomed to moving back and forth freely and in
some cases own land on both sides of the border.
Pakistani
plans for mining and fencing the border were renewed on
December 26, 2006, but were again opposed by the Afghan
Government and the South Waziristan Agency of FATA saw
a border skirmish in April 2007. Pakistani SFs operating
in South Waziristan made a three-tier security deployment
on April 11, 2007, to stop cross-border infiltration by
militants into Afghanistan. Pakistan fenced 12-kilometers
of its border stretch with Afghanistan to ‘choke off’
cross-border infiltration, but Afghan troops tore down
the fence on April 19, leading to a gun-battle, though
there were no casualties.
Despite
Afghanistan’s opposition Pakistan later started excavation
work on a several-hundred-kilometer-long trench along
the Balochistan border in April 2013. After about three
years of constant efforts, a 1,100 kilometer trench in
Balochistan along the Afghan border was completed on June
20, 2016. The 11-foot-deep and 14-foot-wide ditch on the
entire stretch of the border was done under the supervision
of FC at a cost of PKR 14 billion.
Since the
December 16, 2014, terrorist attack on Peshawar’s Army
Public School, Pakistani authorities, who claim that the
terrorists entered Pakistan through Torkham, have sought
to further regulate the movement of people and goods through
the border. The movement across the Afghan-Pakistan border
also generates revenue for both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The two countries exchange goods and services worth some
USD 3 billion annually across the Durand Line, in addition
to a large volume of illegal trade and smuggling.
Pakistan's
move to close the border crossings every time there is
a rise in tensions has failed to resolve the problem of
the border conflict, and to stop terrorist movements on
both sides. Crucially, such moves are futile because terrorists
and other illegal actors don't use the official crossings.
Terrorists with sanctuaries on either side of the border
often use one of many other unofficial passes and crossings
along the over 2,400-kilometer frontier. Wahid Muzhdah,
a Kabul-based analyst noted, on March 7, 2017, "There
are over 20 unofficial crossings along the Afghan-Pak
border which militants use to move between the two countries…
I believe the initial goal of closing the border from
the Pakistani side is to put economic pressure on Afghanistan."
But the border closure has dented business on both sides.
Khan Jan Alokozay, vice chairman of Afghanistan's Chamber
of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) observed, "Afghan
and Pakistani businessmen are losing USD 4 million on
average each day."
Nevertheless,
on April 1, 2016, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed on regulations
that would require Afghan citizens to present valid and
authorized travel documents prior to entering Pakistan
via Torkham. On April 2, an apex committee which included
Pakistan’s Army Chief Raheel Sharif, called for the enforcement
of the border crossing mechanism “in true letter and spirit,”
at all crossing points, especially Torkham. On April 8,
Pakistan issued a notification asking all Afghan nationals
residing in Torkham to vacate the area. Over 300 Afghan
families were evicted from the border town the following
week. Tensions mounted as Pakistani authorities demolished
houses of Afghan nationals in Torkham. By April 18, over
300 such houses had been razed to the ground. Then on
May 11, in the face of Afghanistan’s continued objections
to Pakistan’s construction of a barbed wire fence at Torkham,
Pakistan closed the border. The tension peaked on June
12 over the ‘Pakistan Gate’ issue.
Since then,
an undercurrent of tension persists along all border crossings.
On August 18, 2016, a group of Afghan demonstrators attacked
the Friendship Gate at Chaman and set the Pakistani flag
on fire. A large number of Afghan nationals, celebrating
the 97th anniversary of their country’s Independence Day,
gathered near the Friendship Gate after marching through
the streets of Spin Boldak town across the border. They
carried placards and banners inscribed with anti-Pakistan
slogans and started pelting the Friendship Gate with stones,
smashing windowpanes of buildings.
While border
clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan are not a new
occurrence, the situation in the past few months has been
more warlike than usual. Both countries accuse each other
of providing jihadists with safe zones to launch
attacks across the border. On May 18, 2017, the Pakistan
Army claimed that it has satellite images and ground reports
that proved Afghanistan’s “involvement” in cross-border
terrorist acts and infiltration of terrorists from Afghan
areas into Pakistan. Lieutenant Colonel Haroon of the
Pakistan Army asserted, “Satellite images show that the
Afghan border area of Parchow in Nangarhar province had
been utilised by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
Khalid Sajna and Daesh groups to train militants.” Stressing
the need for effective border management for ensuring
peace in Pakistan, he added, against the evidence of decades
of Pakistani mischief, “We will never allow Pakistani
soil to be utilised for destabilizing Afghanistan.”
Unsurprisingly,
on April 13, 2017, the US confirmed that the terrorist
safe havens were quite safe in Pakistan, allowing terrorist
groups to carry our strikes across the border. US State
Department acting spokesperson Mark Toner noted, “We’ve
been very clear, while we understand that Pakistan has
made efforts to confront terrorism and terrorist organizations
on its own soil, that there are still what we call safe
havens that exist for terrorist groups to operate from
and carry strikes out on Afghanistan.”
It is not
just Afghanistan and the US Coalition there that have
a problem with Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism. Islamabad’s
role in fomenting terrorism in India is well known. However,
on May 8, 2017, Iranian Army Chief Major General Mohammad
Baqeri also warned Islamabad that Tehran would hit bases
inside Pakistan if Islamabad did not confront terrorists
who carry out cross-border attacks. General Baqeri declared,
"We cannot accept the continuation of this situation…
We expect the Pakistani officials to control the borders,
arrest the terrorists and shut down their bases. If the
terrorist attacks continue, we will hit their safe havens
and cells, wherever they are."
Pakistan
continues to use terrorism as an instrument of state policy,
and at the same time seeks to legitimize contentious borders
by building barriers on the pretext of stopping ‘cross
border infiltration’ by terrorists. There can be no peace
in the Pakistani neighbourhood and, indeed, within Pakistan,
as long as this continues. |
Relentless
Exertion
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May
17, 2017, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested two Neo-Jama'atul
Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo-JMB)
terrorists, Selim and Pranta, at village Chuadanga in
Jhenaidah District. During the operation, RAB recovered
186 PVC circuit boards, 18 units of explosive-making gel,
four drums of liquid chemicals, one anti-mine device,
two suicidal vests, as well as some other explosive-making
materials and electronics devices.
On May
11, 2017, five suspected terrorists were killed in a terrorist
hideout in Benipur village of Rajshahi District. Police
disclosed that they had asked the terrorists to surrender,
but, they blew themselves up while coming out of the house.
Fire-fighter Abdul Motin, who was injured in the explosion,
died later at the Rajshahi Medical College Hospital. Locals
claimed the militants were all involved with Jamaat-e-Islami
(JeI) politics.
On May
7, 2017, two Neo-JMB terrorists were killed and two Policemen
were injured during an operation in Jhenidah District's
Maheshpur area. The terrorists, later identified as Tuhin
and Abdullah, were killed in suicide bomb explosion.
On April
27, 2017, four Neo-JMB terrorists holed up at a den in
Shibnagar Trimohoni of Chapainawabganj District were killed
in suicide bomb explosions. Rafiqul Islam aka Abu
was among the dead. The other three, believed to be Abu's
accomplices, were not identified. Abu's pregnant wife
Sumaiya Begum and their six-year-old daughter Khadiza
were rescued from the den. Police recovered Improvised
Explosive Devices (IEDs), bombs and pistols from the den.
On April
21, 2017, a Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime
(CTTC) unit neutralized a Neo-JMB den in a house at Porahati
village in Jhenidah District. Three suicide vests, one
pressure cooker bomb, 20 plastic containers of bomb-making
chemicals, IEDs, detonators and a 9mm pistol was recovered
from the house. Later, CTTC disclosed that the location
was a bomb-making factory from where explosives were supplied
to other cells of the terrorist group. This was the largest
bomb-making facility neutralized.
Significantly,
Inspector General of Police (IGP) A.K.M. Shahidul Hoque,
while addressing a community policing gathering in Lalbagh
area in Dhaka city on May 13, 2017, disclosed that at
least 65 terrorists had been killed in 15 recent anti-terrorism
drives across the country. The IGP further stated that
Police officials were working hard to identify and neutralize
terrorist hideouts, and a ‘good number’ of terrorists
had been arrested in the anti-militancy drive, he added.
Since the
Gulshan
Cafe attack on July 1, 2016, according
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), 92 Islamist terrorists have been killed
and another 1,050 arrested across Bangladesh. Prominent
among those killed were the Neo-JMB leader and mastermind
of the Gulshan Cafe attack, Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury aka
Shaykh Abu Ibrahim Al Hanif aka Amir (30); the
JMB ‘military commander’ for the northern region Khaled
Hasan aka Badar Mama (30); Neo-JMB ‘military commander’
Murad aka Jahangir Alam aka Omar; JMB ‘regional
commander’ Tulu Mollah (33); JMB ‘regional coordinator’
Abu Musa aka Abujar; Neo-JMB ‘military chief’ Aminur Islam
aka Alam (23); Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh
(HuJI-B)
‘chief’ Mufti Abdul Hannan; and HUJI-B ‘regional commander’
Tajul Islam Mahmud aka Mama Hujur (46) (data till
May 21, 2017).
However,
warning that the terrorists were now shifting their hideouts
outside the capital city, Dhaka, Dhaka Metropolitan Police
(DMP) Commissioner Asaduzzaman Mia noted, April 29, 2017,
“Now, we all are conscious enough about the militancy
in Dhaka as a result terrorists are shifting their dens
outside the capital.” Further, to combat militancy and
terrorism anywhere in the country, CTTC officials stated,
on April 30, 2017, that Police was going to get a full-fledged
unit with jurisdiction to operate across the country.
Currently, the CTTC unit of DMP is the only specialized
Police counterterrorism unit. The unit has to step in
to launch anti-militancy raids in areas even outside its
jurisdiction, requiring special permission from the Police
Headquarters for each such operation. Jurisdictional issues
also arose in the investigation of terrorism-related crimes
outside DMP areas. CTTC officials asserted that the new
“Police Anti-Terrorism Unit” would enhance their capacity
manifold in the fight against extremists.
A disturbing
trend in Bangladesh has been the regrouping, to stage
fresh attacks, by terrorists released on bail. An intelligence
report submitted to the Home Ministry in August, 2016,
revealed that, between February and June 2016, at least
28 terrorists had been released from jail, prominently
including: Sikandar Naki, a JMB terrorist accused in a
case under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) at the Turag Police
Station, who was released from jail after securing bail
from the court on June 2, 2016; Omar Sharif and Abu Bakkar,
two terrorists of Hizb-ut-Tahrir accused in separate cases
under the ATA filed with the Adabor and Hazaribagh Police
stations, who obtained bail on May 2, 2016; Ashish, a
terrorist of Hizb ut-Tahrir accused in a case filed with
the Sobujbagh Police Station under ATA, who secured bail
on April 16, 2016; Mominur Rahman, also a Hizb-ut-Tahrir
terrorist accused in a case filed with Khilgaon Police
Station under the ATA, who secured bail on April 15, 2016;
another Hizb ut-Tahrir terrorist Sunny, accused in a case
filed against him with Sabujbagh Police Station, obtained
bail on April 14, 2016; JMB terrorist Shafiqul Islam,
accused in several cases filed against him with Hazaribagh
and Rampura Police Stations, secured bail on April 9,
2016; Raufur Rashid, a terrorist of Hizb-ut-Tahrir accused
in a case filed against him with the capital's Mohammmadpur
Police Station, obtained bail on April 7, 2016; Shafayet
Jamil, a JMB terrorist accused in a case under ATA filed
with the Kalabagan Police Station, secured bail on March
31, 2016; Nurul Amin, another JMB terrorist accused in
a case filed with the Paltan Police Station, obtained
bail on March 29, 2016; Sadik Shajib, a Hizb-ut-Tahrir
terrorist accused in a case filed against him with the
Uttara Police Station, got bail on March 29, 2016; and
HUJI-B terrorist Lipi, accused in a case against her with
the Cantonment Police Station, obtained bail on February
9, 2016.
Warning
that legal action would be taken against guarantors who
gave their bond for terrorists to secure bail, Home Minister
Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, after the 6th meeting of the Committee
on Combating Militancy at the Secretariat in Dhaka city
on April 12, 2017, stated, “We have decided to take legal
action against the guarantors upon whose bond the terrorists
were released on bails, if they fail to place the culprits
in the court. There was an intelligence report that many
of the terrorists have already left the country for which
they could not appear before the court ignoring repeated
summons…” Separately, suggesting immediate steps for de-radicalization
of arrested terrorists, Aminul Islam, Joint Commissioner
of the CTTC unit of DMP, in his presentation at the Quarterly
Crime Conference of Police on April 24, 2017, observed,
“The country lacks any mechanism for de-radicalization
and counter-narratives for terrorists. After arrest, terrorists
usually behave tough (sic), but slowly they become
normal.”
Meanwhile,
promising that the Government would help terrorists get
back to normal lives after surrender, Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina Wajed stated, at the RAB Headquarters on the elite
force’s anniversary on April 26, 2017, “Terrorists and
extremists, who want to get back to normal life shunning
extremism, should be given support so that they can reintegrate
into the society. The Government had made a list of all
the terrorists who had laid down arms. We will provide
them financial aid and assist them to jobs they want so
that they can get back to normal lives.” Further, reiterating
her Government's zero tolerance policy against militancy
and terrorism on May 3, 2017, Prime Minister Hasina declared,
“We'll root out militancy and terrorism from Bangladesh
to ensure peace and security in public life.”
Dhaka has
demonstrated
the efficacy of determined and relentless action against
terrorist formations. However, the weapons and resources
recovered during recent raids suggest that the significant
flows to these groups persist. Moreover, the involvement
of women as combatants also has grave implications for
the country. Bangladesh has taken giant strides against
terrorism and Islamist extremism, but the latent threat
persists.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
May
15-21, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
Nagaland
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Jharkhand
|
2
|
0
|
7
|
9
|
Total (INDIA)
|
4
|
3
|
13
|
20
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
KP
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
Sindh
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
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|
|
|
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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