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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 15, October 19, 2009
Data and assessments
from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence
Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal |
Speeding
into the Void
Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;
Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict
& Resolution
After
much vacillation and hype, and stung by targeted attacks
at its very core, the military launched its long-awaited
Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path of Salvation) late
on October 16, 2009, against the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in South Waziristan.
The declared mission objective, according to the military
spokesman, is to neutralise the "centre of gravity
of terrorism” in Pakistan. The decision to launch a
ground offensive reportedly came hours after the military
and political leadership agreed to stage the ‘final
assault’ on the “headquarters of terrorism" in
reaction to the series of terrorist attacks across the
country over the preceding two weeks. "The ground
offensive has started," military spokesman Major
General Athar Abbas declared, "The headquarters
of the defunct Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will
be surgically targeted to dismantle the network of the
terror outfit." Abbas stated that intelligence
reports had revealed that some 80 per cent of the terrorist
attacks in Pakistan originated from South Waziristan,
and that some 1,500 foreign terrorists were believed
to be hiding in the area, in adding strength to local
militants.
At the
time of writing, the Government had imposed a curfew
in the region, closing all link roads to and from Waziristan,
and jamming all communication systems in Waziristan
and the adjoining areas of the Frontier. Official sources
said the military was "converging on Taliban strongholds
from three directions – Jandola in the east, Shakai
in the west and Razmak in the north. They said initial
reports had revealed the Taliban were putting up "stiff
resistance" to the Army’s advance." 90 militants
and nine soldiers have died while 23 troopers were injured
so far (till October 18).
Earlier,
the flurry of escalating terrorist violence across Pakistan
had reinforced the country’s progressive spiral towards
state failure. A series of lethal suicide bombings,
gun-and-grenade raids and other attacks orchestrated
by the TTP and its al Qaeda allies had killed at least
152 persons and 23 terrorists and injured more than
250 persons since October 1, 2009. The most significant
of these incidents included:
October
16: 15 persons, including three Policemen, were killed
and 19 others sustained injuries after a suicide bomber
rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into the Criminal
Investigation Agency's Special Investigation Unit in
Peshawar, the capital city of the North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP).
October
15: At least 19 persons, including 14 Security Force
(SF) personnel, were killed and 41 others sustained
injuries in three separate terrorist attacks in Lahore,
capital of Punjab province. All nine attackers were
also shot dead by the SFs. The attacks were carried
out at the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) building
on Temple Road, the Manawan Police Training Centre on
the outskirts and the Elite Police Academy on the Bedian
Road.
11 persons,
including three Policemen, were killed and 22 others
sustained injuries when a 22-year old suicide bomber
rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the building
of the Saddar Police Station in the military area of
Kohat in the NWFP.
October
12: 41 persons - including six soldiers - were killed
and 45 others were injured in a suicide attack on a
military convoy in the Alpuri area of Shangla District
(which borders Swat District), in NWFP. The bomber –
believed to be 14 years old and on foot – targeted the
convoy while it was passing through the busy Alpuri
bazaar.
October
11: In a successful 18-hour operation, the SFs, including
Special Services Group commandos, killed four terrorists,
arrested one and rescued 39 hostages at a security office
outside the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi,
ending a siege that began on October 10. Three civilians
and two SF personnel were killed, while seven SF personnel
and three civilians were injured during the 18-hour
operation – which culminated in the arrest of the wounded
ringleader, Aqeel alias Dr. Osman. Six soldiers
and five terrorists had already been killed in the siege
on October 10. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)
Director-General, Major General Athar Abbas, said three
civilian hostages and two Army officials were killed
while seven officials were injured in the commando operation.
The ISPR chief said eight SF personnel, including a
Brigadier and a Lieutenant Colonel, nine terrorists
and three civilians were killed on October 10 and 11,
while the total number of injured was 15 (12 Army personnel
and three civilians).
October
9: 49 persons, including a woman and seven children,
were killed and 90 others were injured when a suicide
attacker detonated his explosives-laden car at the crowded
Soekarno Chowk in Khyber Bazaar in Peshawar.
October
5: A suicide bomber targeted the United Nations World
Food Programme office in Islamabad, killing five persons,
including a UN diplomat (Iraqi national Bootan Ali)
and two women employees. Six other staff members were
injured.
Is Pakistan
losing its campaign against the Taliban-al Qaeda network?
The recent avalanche of attacks has predominantly targeted
the Security Forces, killing at least 34 SF personnel.
Coordinated assaults on October 15 against Police targets
in Lahore in Punjab and Kohat in the Frontier came five
days after a siege at the GHQ in Rawalpindi. It is this
unwavering intent that has widened the conflict and
crippled the Government, which now appears bereft of
any effective strategy to counter the militant enterprise.
The fact
that Taliban
and al
Qaeda-linked militants are widening
the arc of conflict within Pakistan also aggravates
the US Administration’s plans for a new offensive across
the border in Afghanistan, where the war has deteriorated
amidst a somewhat fraudulent presidential election.
While
military operations against the TTP in the Malakand
Division of the Frontier had limited impact on the ground
situation, there is great expectation being generated
by Islamabad’s spin doctors that an offensive against
the Taliban-al Qaeda in South Waziristan would yield
decisive gains. But even as this campaign is being drummed
up, the momentum has shifted progressively to Pakistan’s
heartland, Punjab,
which is where the militancy is now dramatically augmenting.
However, the escalation of violence in Punjab’s urban
areas, including Rawalpindi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar,
and the subversion elsewhere in the province, has not
attracted significant state response. On the contrary,
the Government remains in denial as far as the rising
terrorism in Punjab is concerned, and simply refuses
to accept the reality of rising militancy in the province.
The long-standing conviction that underpins the creation
and support of terrorist groups as strategic assets
appears to have survived the devastation of successive
attacks and bombings in the heartland.
While
the progressive collapse in the NWFP and FATA
has been well documented, the centrifugal dynamic in
Punjab and its emergence as a jihadi hub has
largely been neglected. Deeper scrutiny reveals that
the situation in Punjab is, in many ways, alarming and
will have far reaching consequences in the immediate
future for Pakistan. It is useful to note that there
have been 152 terrorism-related incidents in Punjab
just in 2009 (till October 18) inflicting 229 fatalities,
including an overwhelming 118 civilians and 77 SF personnel.
The fact that militant fatalities total just 34 in 2009
clearly indicates that the Taliban-al Qaeda network
has secured the upper hand. It is also evident that
militants have been able to shift the momentum of the
conflict by bringing the battle to the urban heartland,
including the national capital Islamabad, the garrison
town Rawalpindi, and provincial capital Lahore.
Alarming
for the Government and the Army is the fact that renegade
militant groups like the TTP are now collaborating with
al-Qaeda linked groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
to mount a grave challenge to the state in Punjab. There
are some indications, although clear evidence is yet
to materialize from the recent terrorist attacks, that
militants from Punjab are rallying around the TTP to
worsen an already appalling situation for the Government.
"The militants want to destabilise the country
and want the Government to collapse," Ayesha Siddiqa,
a security analyst, declares, "The Government is
in a state of denial... Al Qaeda and Taliban have been
penetrating their influence in the Punjab and now it
is high time for the Government and our Forces to realise
this danger." In addition, an official stated that,
"the real threat of sophisticated militant attacks
now comes from Punjab where militants have engaged the
security forces in face-to-face fighting."
At the
other end, the series of attacks over the last three
weeks demonstrates that military operations in Swat
and elsewhere in the Malakand Division of the NWFP,
and the killing of TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud in a US
missile attack in South Waziristan on August 5, 2009,
have had little impact on the extremists. The audacious
commando-style assaults at the GHQ and on Police targets
in Rawalpindi and Lahore, accompanied by incessant attacks
elsewhere, clearly demonstrate that the TTP retains
the capacity to challenge the state on several fronts,
despite momentary setbacks in the Frontier. Militant
capacities, as noted in earlier SAIR assessments,
have in fact remained more or less evidently intact
across the country. Further, there are some preliminary
indications that the TTP has overcome the initial squabbling
and power struggle after Baitullah’s death and is now
regrouping rather well. The new TTP chief, Hakeemullah
Mehsud, earlier thought by Pakistani and US officials
to have been killed in infighting, appeared before a
small group of journalists at an unspecified location
in South Waziristan on October 5, vowing to avenge the
killing of his predecessor and to expedite attacks on
US and Pakistani forces. .
Pakistan
Air Force (PAF) jets have been strafing suspected Taliban
positions in South Waziristan for more than a month
now, as a precursor to the much anticipated ground offensive
in the region. The aerial strikes and official statements,
over the past weeks, about a ground offensive have already
led to a flight out of South Waziristan, and many militants
would join the anticipated flood of over two million
refugees from the region. Sources indicate that a substantial
proportion of TTP and al Qaeda militants, in an anticipation
of the ground campaign, have already moved out of the
region. With the element of surprise entirely missing,
continued aerial operations and a simultaneous limited
ground assault would lead far more to extensive collateral
damage than to enduring gains against the militants
in South Waziristan, a scenario earlier witnessed in
Swat.
More
importantly, the ground offensive will certainly lead
to an escalation of the Taliban – al Qaeda campaign
of terrorism elsewhere in the country. It is highly
probable that the TTP and its al Qaeda allies will attack
the urban spaces and state installations across Pakistan
even as the ground offensive in South Waziristan gathers
pace, a pattern that was witnessed in the aftermath
of the military campaign in Swat as well. Indeed, the
current string of terrorist attacks is also part of
a pre-emptive strategy, intended to divert SFs from
their insistent focus on Waziristan. The intended message
is that the state should not yield to the intense pressure
from the US administration to launch a military campaign
against the Taliban. The Taliban - al Qaeda have, indeed,
repeatedly stated that military operations by Islamabad
are meant to appease the United States, which has for
long asked Pakistan to combat militants operating in
the tribal region bordering Afghanistan.
Going
forward, the Government, which is currently deeply divided
with an intense three-way (the President, Prime Minister
and the Army being the dramatis personae) power struggle,
will find it extremely difficult to deal with a further
spiral in terrorist violence in the cities. A highly
polarised Islamabad is adding to existing complexities
and, as analyst Rahimullah Yousafzai has rightly remarked,
"The Government is on the defensive. It does not
seem to have evolved any long or short-term strategy
to counter (the attacks)."
The weeks
ahead will subject Pakistan military’s capacities to
an intense scrutiny, even as Islamabad’s intent and
will to prosecute a long-drawn counter-terrorist campaign
against a hardened enemy in its own sanctuary in the
mountainous terrain of South Waziristan are brought
under a scanner. Little in the evolving scenario suggests
that Pakistan’s hurtle into chaos will be halted by
the trajectory of current developments in Waziristan.
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Weekly
Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October
12-18,
2009
|
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist/Insurgent
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Goa
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Jharkhand
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
Orissa
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
West Bengal
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
7
|
1
|
7
|
15
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
FATA
|
8
|
16
|
231
|
255
|
NWFP
|
60
|
12
|
8
|
80
|
Punjab
|
7
|
14
|
9
|
30
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
78
|
43
|
248
|
369
|
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.
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INDIA
Terror
camps are still intact in Pakistan occupied Kashmir,
says Defence Minister A. K. Antony: Pakistan
is not meeting its commitments to root out anti-India
terror emanating from its soil and the network of terrorist
camps is intact in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK),
Defence Minister A K Antony said in Moscow on October
15, 2009. "There are attacks along the LoC [Line of
Control] and more attempts of infiltration in Jammu
and Kashmir, but our armed forces are defeating them.
Terror camps are still intact in PoK. Pakistan is not
making efforts to root them out and meeting its commitments
to root out anti-India terror from its soil," he said.
PTI
News, October 15, 2009.
PAKISTAN
231
militants and 16 soldiers among 255 persons killed during
the week in FATA: The Army claimed killing 60 militants
and losing five soldiers with 11 others sustaining injuries
in the past 24 hours as Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path
of Salvation) launched in South Waziristan Agency entered
the second day on October 18, 2009. In its advance towards
the Taliban stronghold of Makeen, the Security Forces
(SFs) clashed with militants, killing 30 of them in the
Jandola, Kotkai and Srarogha areas, said a statement of
the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). It said two
soldiers died and four others sustained injuries in these
clashes. The Mandana, Kund and Tarakai areas were secured
from this side, added the statement. The operation progressed
seven kilometres north of Shakai from the second direction
where the SFs had captured areas like Boya Narai and Wozi
Sar from the militants, said the ISPR, which also claimed
that 20 militants and a soldier were killed while three
soldiers were wounded in the same area. Securing some
key heights around and south of Razmak, the Army said
the advancing SFs killed 10 militants and lost two soldiers
with four sustaining injuries.
The Pakistan
Army launched Operation Rah-e-Nijat late on October
16 night, combating the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) killing 30 militants in air strikes targeting
the Kotkai, Makeen and Ladah regions of South Waziristan.
Four soldiers were also killed and 12 others injured on
the first day of the offensive. Separately, 12 Taliban
militants were killed and two injured in clashes between
the SFs and Taliban in the Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies
on October 17. Officials said three militants were killed
and two injured in the Salarzai revenue division of Bajaur
Agency. Official sources said the SFs continued the military
operation in the Warr Mamoond and Salarzai sub-divisions
to restore the Government’s writ in these areas. A spokesman
for the Frontier Corps Media Cell told the APP
that SFs killed nine Taliban militants, including seven
foreigners, in an overnight operation in Agra Post of
Mohmand Agency. He said one soldier was also killed in
the fighting. Further, three soldiers were killed and
six injured after two separate remote controlled bombings
that targeted SFs convoys in Waziristan.
25 Taliban
militants and three troopers were killed on October 16,
as the military continued operations in South Waziristan
and Bajaur Agency. 12 militants were killed during the
third day of bombings in South Waziristan while 18 others
were injured. Six terrorist hideouts were destroyed and
several houses damaged in the operations. Separately,
helicopter gunships killed 10 militants during raids on
suspected terrorist bases in Bajaur Agency, officials
told AFP. Also in Bajaur, three more terrorists
were killed and two injured during a clash between SFs
and the Taliban in the Salarzai area. Separately, a security
official told AFP that suspected Taliban militants launched
a rocket attack at a military camp in the Shakai area
of South Waziristan, killing three soldiers and injuring
four.
Military
planes bombed suspected militant positions in the Laddah,
Nawazkot, Khaisora, Saam, Sararogha and Tiarza areas of
South Waziristan on October 15, killing at least 32 militants
and non-combatants. 12 people were reportedly killed and
seven others injured in the Kanigram and Karama areas
of Laddah sub-division and nine in Nawazkot area adjacent
to North Waziristan. Five people were killed when their
car was hit in Maulvi Khan Sarai and six people died and
five wounded in Tiarza. Separately, four Afghan Taliban
militants were killed in a US drone attack in North Waziristan
on October 15. The slain men reportedly belonged to the
Ghaznavi group of the Jalaluddin Haqqani network of the
Taliban in Afghanistan. “Three missiles were fired by
the drone in Dandi Darphakhel area and killed four Afghan
Taliban from the Haqqani network,” officials told Daily
Times. In addition, four militants were killed as
the SFs targeted militant hideouts in the Utmankhel area
of Orakzai Agency on October 15.
19 persons,
including some militants and eight persons of a family,
were killed and eight others sustained injuries when fighter
planes targeted different areas of South Waziristan Agency
on October 14. Four hideouts of the militants were also
destroyed in the air strikes. Fighter planes are reported
to have bombed the Maidan, Tangi, Bodinzai, Kacha Langarkhel,
Sam, Ragh, and Salay Rogha areas in Ladha sub-division.
At least 11 persons, including militants, were killed
and seven others injured in the bombing. The sources added
that a training centre of the militants, the house of
a Taliban ‘commander’ and a hideout were destroyed in
the Sam, Ragh and Salay Rogha areas, respectively, in
air attacks. They said several houses were also damaged
in the intense bombing by the Pakistan Air Force jets
in Salay Rogha. Tribal sources said two fighter jets fired
at a house of an 80-year-old tribal elder Malik Nekam
Khan in the Spinkai area of Sarwakai Tehsil (revenue unit)
at 3:00 pm, killing eight members of his family on the
spot and injuring seven others.
Six Taliban
militants were killed when fighter jets targeted the group’s
positions in South Waziristan on October 13, said officials,
even as jets and helicopter gunships bombed Taliban hideouts
and ground forces fired heavy artillery in Bajaur Agency,
killing 26 Taliban militants and injuring dozens of others.
Fighter jets are reported to have launched another round
of air-strikes in South Waziristan, destroying around
15 houses in Makeen, Ladha and Barwand, said a local intelligence
official. Abdul Malik, a local Government official, said
the military strikes in Bajaur Agency took place in the
Damadola and Sawai areas.
At least
15 Taliban militants were killed and 16 others sustained
injuries after the SFs launched Operation Sherdil
in the Mamoond and Salarzai sub-divisions of Bajaur Agency
on October 12. Elsewhere in the FATA, jets bombed Taliban
positions in South Waziristan, killing six Taliban militants.
SFs said that three Taliban hideouts were destroyed in
the Bajaur raids. The AP news agency reported that fighter
jets bombed suspected Taliban hideouts. www.dawn.com;
www.dailytimes.com.pk; www.thenews.com.pk, October 13-19,
2009. Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, October 13-19, 2009.
60
civilians and 12 soldiers among 80 persons killed during
the week in NWFP: At
least 15 persons, including three Policemen, were killed
and 19 others sustained injuries after a suicide bomber
rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into the Criminal
Investigation Agency’s Special Investigation Unit in Peshawar,
the capital city of NWFP, on October 16, 2009.
11 persons,
including three Policemen, were killed and 22 others sustained
injuries when a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden
vehicle into the building of the Saddar Police Station
located in the military area of Kohat on October 15. The
Deputy Inspector General of Police (Kohat region), Abdullah
Khan, told reporters that a 22-year-old suicide bomber
blew up his explosives-laden double cabin vehicle just
outside the main gate of Saddar Police Station, killing
11 people, including three Policemen Fayazul Hasnain,
Muhammad Noor and Khurshid, and injuring 22 persons, including
four Policemen. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed
responsibility for the attack. The claim was made by TTP
central spokesman Azam Tariq who contacted reporters to
confirm that the attack was made by the Taliban militants
operating in Darra Adamkhel. Elsewhere, an eight-year-old
boy, identified as Hamza, was killed and 12 persons, including
two Policemen, were wounded when a powerful bomb exploded
in a three-storey building in the officers’ colony of
provincial capital Peshawar on October 15 .
The death
toll from a suicide bombing in the Shangla District increased
to 45 from 41 on October 13 even as the TTP claimed responsibility
for the attack. “Two people died overnight and two more
died this morning,” a doctor told AFP on October
13. Meanwhile in the Swat District, Security Forces (SFs)
said on October 13 that they had killed five more Taliban
militants and arrested five others.
41 persons
- including six soldiers - were killed and 45 others were
injured on October 12 in a suicide attack on a military
convoy in the Alpuri area of Shangla District (which borders
Swat District), NWFP Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain
and a military official said. The bomber – believed to
be 14 years old and on foot – targeted the convoy while
it was passing through the busy Alpuri bazaar. A military
spokesman said that 12 shops and seven vehicles were destroyed
when the young bomber detonated explosives. “Some vehicles
loaded with ammunition were also part of the convoy...
they caught fire after the explosion,” said the spokesman.
Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News,, October 13-19, 2009.
14 Policemen
and seven civilians among 30 persons killed in three terrorist
attacks on Police targets in Lahore: 19 persons, including
14 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed and 41 others
sustained injuries in three separate terrorist attacks
in Lahore, capital of Punjab province, on October 15,
2009. All nine attackers were also shot dead by the SFs.
The attacks were carried out at the Federal Investigation
Agency (FIA) building on the Temple Road, the Manawan
Police Training Centre and the Elite Police Academy on
the Bedian Road. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s Amjad
Farooqi faction claimed responsibility for the three attacks.
In the
first attack, a terrorist wearing an explosive vest attacked
the FIA offices. The assailant reportedly opened indiscriminate
fire at the people, killing six persons, including two
FIA inspectors, on the spot, The News reported.
Police cordoned off the building and subsequently killed
the terrorist. However, Daily Times reported that
at least three terrorists attacked the FIA building, killing
seven people. In the second attack, four terrorists stormed
the Elite Force Training Centre and an encounter continued
till afternoon until the SFs killed the two attackers
and freed a family they were holding hostage. Two other
attackers blew themselves up, Police said. An Assistant
Sub-Inspector of Police, Ghulam Jaffar, and a civilian,
Adil, were killed and seven Policemen were wounded in
the attack. The attackers of the Manawan Police Training
School, wearing Police-like camouflage fatigues, lobbed
a grenade and opened indiscriminate fire at the trainees,
killing 11 Policemen and a civilian and injuring 34 Policemen,
The News stated. However, Daily Times reported that nine
Policemen died and 60 were injured when four attackers
wearing suicide jackets attacked the compound. Three of
the men blew themselves up, while one was subsequently
killed by the Police. www.dailytimes.com.pk; www.thenews.com.pk;
October 16, 2009.
Daily
Times; The
News, October 16, 2009.
The
South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular
data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional
warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic,
political, and social issues, in the South Asian region. SAIR
is a project of the Institute
for Conflict Management and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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