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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 18, November 9, 2009

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

 

PAKISTAN
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South Waziristan: Blind Fury
Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management; Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution

"We are prepared for a long war"
– Azam Tariq, Taliban spokesman, November 3, 2009

The Pakistan Army is reported to have wound up the first phase of Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Salvation) this past weekend, having captured all major towns and villages in the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) stronghold of South Waziristan. According to the military’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), 458 militants have been killed (till November 7) since the offensive began on October 17, 2009. 42 soldiers, including officers, have lost their lives and 142 soldiers were wounded in the fighting, the ISPR chief, Major General Athar Abbas, said in an interview with Radio Pakistan on November 6. According to the military, the second phase of the operation will focus, among other aspects, on hamlets and smaller outposts controlled by the TTP.

Approximately 30,000 troops, assisted by military jets and helicopter gunships, have been deployed in the TTP stronghold and have moved in from three sides – "from Razmak in North Waziristan towards Makeen in South Waziristan, from Wana and Shakai towards Serwakai tehsil [revenue unit] on the way to Kaniguram, and from Jandola to Spinkai Raghzai, Kotki and Sararogha." On November 3, the Pakistan Army took control of Sararogha, the stronghold of the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led TTP. The capture of Sararogha adds to the significance of securing Kotkai, the home town of TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud and his trainer of suicide bombers, Qari Hussain, on October 24. Adding to its significance, Sararogha was where the TTP Shura (executive council) met to deliberate strategy. The political administration has claimed that Army troops were in control of major parts of Sararogha and Ladha, while they were moving to consolidate positions in Makeen town, described as the nerve centre of the Taliban in South Waziristan. The rapid pace with which the military has claimed capture of major towns and villages, including Sherwangi, Kotkai, Kaniguram and Sararogha, and locations such as Tarkona Narai, have fuelled much doubt and skepticism.

The truth is likely far from the spin Islamabad is sending out to the world. Local and official sources, The News reported on November 8, 2009, remarked that there was little or no resistance from the militants, as all the armed men had left the area well in advance, since the campaign had been well advertised before its commencement. At worst, there was some fighting in a few places. Crucially, not a single important TTP ‘commander’ or foreign militant has been killed or arrested, since the launch of operations on October 17. The death toll of militants claimed by the ISPR in its daily statements is pushing 500, but the bodies of the slain men haven’t been shown to the media, The News added. Irfan Burki and Daud Khattak have reported that the whereabouts of TTP leaders, including Hakeemullah Mehsud, Qari Hussain and Waliur Rahman aren’t known, and it is believed they have escaped to some new hideouts. Sources suggest that Waliur Rahman, in his capacity as the head of the TTP South Waziristan chapter, is still holed up somewhere in the Mehsud tribal territory. As in Swat, "where Taliban head Maulana Fazlullah is still untraceable, the situation has taken a familiar turn in South Waziristan as all the top commanders fled."

Current counter-insurgency operations in South Waziristan are, consequently, unlikely to yield desired results, given the experience in the FATA in the past and in Swat earlier in 2009, and can be expected only to disperse the militants into other areas across Pakistan. The neutralisation of the Taliban-al Qaeda combine is, moreover, far from being a desired objective of these operations. In fact, never has any militant group, be it the sectarian variant, the ones being used by Pakistan in its proxy war against India, or others like the Taliban and al Qaeda allies, been neutralized by the state.

Momentarily, these operations could relieve some pressure on adjacent geographical locations. For instance, there is, according to figures for October 2009, less pressure in the Bannu District of NWFP, located next to Sararogha. The eventual success of the operation in South Waziristan would also depend on the state’s capacity to prevent any further expansion of the conflict, especially the augmenting attacks in urban areas. For Operation Rah-e-Nijat to be strategically meaningful, the military will have to engage with the TTP and al Qaeda allies not only in South Waziristan but also in North Waziristan, the Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai, Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies, and elsewhere in FATA. In addition, Pakistan’s Armed Forces will have to fight the fleeing militants in the adjoining Swat Valley and Malakand Division of the NWFP, which is still to stabilize, despite the largely disastrous military operations in that region earlier in the year. The effectiveness of military operations in South Waziristan will be negligible if the Army allows the TTP cadre to disperse across Pakistan or flee across the Durand Line, to regroup on Afghan territory. All of this implies a commitment and concentration of troops that the Federal Government simply cannot currently secure, given the multiple insurgencies raging across the country.

While the operations in South Waziristan have already led to more than 500 fatalities, the whole of FATA continues to remain a conflict zone with augmenting casualties. 4,185 persons, including 3,318 militants and 582 civilians, have died so far in 2009 (till November 7), a substantial increase over the fatality figure for the whole of 2008, which stood at 3,067. The writ of the state, always fragile in FATA, has now vanished. Levels of violence have, in fact, risen continuously over the years.

Annual Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in FATA, 2005- 2009

Year

Civilians
SF Personnel
Militant
Total
Injured
Incidents

2009*

582
285
3318
4185
1432
3005

2008

1116
242
1709
3067
1315
1154

2007

424
243
1014
1681
NA
NA

2006

109
144
337
590
NA
248

2005

92
35
158
285
NA
165
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
* Data till November 7, 2009

Fatalities are bound to be much higher than the numbers available, and the categories are certainly suspect, since independent and open source reportage from FATA operates under severe restrictions.

The intensive strafing and limited ground operations that comprise Operation Rah-e-Nijat have, of course, led to some setbacks for the Taliban. The TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud has, however, urged his cadres to endure the military onslaught, warning them in an intercepted message obtained on November 5 that "cowards will go to hell". "Remember this is the commandment of God that once fighting starts with the enemy, you cannot leave the battlefield without permission from your commander, and don’t look for excuses to run away from the fighting," Hakeemullah told his fighters in a speech on November 3, broadcast over a wireless radio network. Of those, who do run away, he warned, "Such people will go to hell… We are in Jihad and we should not pay heed to the whispers of Satan. We should sacrifice our lives for Islam so that we can feel pride on the Day of Judgment."

There are obvious indications that the lack of resistance by the Taliban is tactical. TTP spokesman Azam Tariq declared, on November 3, "We are prepared for a long war. The areas we are withdrawing from, and the ones the Army is claiming to have won, are being vacated by us as part of a strategy. The strategy is to lure the army into a trap, and then fight a long war."

Rather than countering the troops, TTP cadres have withdrawn into safe havens in the mountainous terrain and the urban expanse. Sources indicate that key TTP leaders have re-located to other areas in FATA, to Balochistan, to Karachi, to south Punjab and other locations across Pakistan, where there is currently less pressure from the security agencies. Officials at the Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi are reportedly surprised that the militants left the area so easily. The Army is, of course, aware that the fleeing militants are retreating to other locations, including the neighbouring Orakzai, Kurram, Khyber and North Waziristan agencies, to survive, regroup and prepare future attacks.

While the military establishment and Interior Ministry had been hyping the military operations in South Waziristan months before their actual launch, entirely neutralizing any element of surprise, two factors may have eventually forced GHQ to finally hit out. The recent surge of terrorist violence in urban areas, including the attack on GHQ itself, at Rawalpindi, as well as on state installations in Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar and Kohat, which killed more than 200 people, force the Army’s hand to launch an offensive in South Waziristan. In addition, the approaching winter also "prompted the military to begin the onslaught and try to finish it or achieve most of its objectives before the snow starts falling in the mountains of Makeen, Ladha, Kaniguram, Badar, Srarogha, Kotki and other militant strongholds."

The military action has, so far, only targeted the parts of South Waziristan which are dominated by the Mehsud tribe. A report from Dera Ismail Khan on October 20 noted that the Pakistan Army had struck deals to keep two powerful tribal chiefs — Mulla Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur — from joining the battle against the Government. Under the terms agreed upon about three weeks earlier, Mulla Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur will stay out of the current fight in parts of South Waziristan and will also allow the Army to "move through their own lands unimpeded, giving the military additional fronts from which to attack the Taliban. In exchange, the Army will ease patrols and bombings in the lands controlled by the two warlords, two Pakistani intelligence officials based in the region said."

The battle for South Waziristan and, if possible, to clear the area of the Taliban-al Qaeda presence, is going to be long and certainly a lot more difficult and complicated than the military campaign in Swat. Past attempts to establish Islamabad’s writ in the region have proven disastrous. For the record, there have been three failed military operations against the Taliban in the region between 2005 to 2008. On at least one occasion, the military’s failure to defeat the then Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud resulted in the capture of around 300 soldiers by the Taliban, and forced the Government and the military to make peace deals with him in February 2005.

Much is at stake for Pakistan in the fight against the TTP, but there is nothing about Islamabad’s strategy and, more importantly, intent, that allows for even a modicum of optimism.

INDIA
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Tripura: Unnoticed Consolidation
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The dividends of a remarkable counter-insurgency success continue to accumulate in the northeastern State of Tripura, even as some of the other States in the region continue to teeter on the brink of chaos. The year 2009 saw a further and drastic decline in insurgency-related activity, with only one fatality thus far, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, as compared to 17 in 2008. There have been only 47 militancy-related incidents in year 2009, less than half of what was recorded in 2008. This is, indeed, a dramatic recovery from the three-digit annual fatalities of the 2001-2004 period, and even the significant double-digit fatalities of the subsequent years.

Militancy-related fatalities in Tripura, 2001-2009

 

Incidents
Civilians
Security Force personnel
Militants
Total

2001

370
237
36
30
303

2002

292
150
46
22
218

2003

394
207
39
50
296

2004

212
67
46
51
164

2005

115
28
11
21
60

2006

87
14
14
22
50

2007

94
14
06
19
39

2008

116
7
4
17
28

2009

47
0
0
1
1
Source: Data 2000-2007: Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Government of India
2008-2009: South Asia Terrorism Portal

During 2009, incidents were reported from all of Tripura’s four Districts in 2008. While the West District, in which capital Agartala is located, was the worst affected, with 18 militancy-related incidents, Dhalai, North and South Districts accounted for 11, 11 and 5 incidents, respectively. The single militant fatality occurred in the Haripara area under the Manikpur Police Station in Dhalai District on June 26, 2009.

Replying to questions raised by the opposition Members of the Legislative Assembly, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar said, on March 12, 2009, that, over the last three years, as many as 871 militants belonging to the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and Borok National Council of Tripura (BNCT) had surrendered, of whom 367 deposited arms and ammunition. The Chief Minister also disclosed that approximately 180 to 200 NLFT militants and 80 to 90 ATTF cadres were still underground. He added, further, that the reduction of militancy could very well be gauged from the fact that while in 2007 there 133 attacks, in 2008 these came down to 80.

According to the SATP database, a total of 215 militants surrendered in Tripura in 2009, including 119 from the BNCT, 53 from the NLFT, 41 from the ATTF and two from unidentified militant outfits. On February 14, 2009, 118 BNCT militants deserted their hideouts in Bangladesh and surrendered before the Police at Chawmanu Police Station in the Dhalai District. They also deposited a cache of arms and ammunition, including AK-56 rifles, pistols, Self Loading Rifles (SLRs) and grenades. Investigations revealed that the militants, led by Pabanjoy Reang, had fled Bangladesh due to a serious shortage of food and basic amenities at their camps. The militants disclosed that they had found it increasingly difficult to move freely in Bangladesh after the formation of the Awami League Government in January 2009.

Among the notable surrenders in 2009 were:

January 5: Two top ATTF ‘commanders’, identified as 'captain' Michael and 'lieutenant' Royal Debbarma, and their wives, surrendered before the Sub-Divisional Police Officer of Jirania in West Tripura District. Both militants carried cash rewards of INR 250,000 each and had red corner notices issued against them by the Interpol. Their wives were also ATTF cadres. "Our records say that they had perpetrated savageries on people by massacring 26 civilians at Kalyanpur in December 1996, 19 at Panchabati in November 1999, 21 at Simna Colony in May 2003 and 32 people in simultaneous attacks on Kamal Nagar and Bara Lunga villages under Teliamura subdivision in 2003, besides many others," Deputy Inspector General (Operations), Nepal Das, revealed.

January 10: 22 NLFT cadres and two from the ATTF surrendered before Security Forces (SFs) in the West District after fleeing from their base camps in Bangladesh. A food crisis in the Bangladesh camps and non-payment of ‘dues’ to the rank and file, were given as reasons for the surrender. The NLFT cadres deposited three revolvers, two Chinese grenades, live cartridges and some documents, while the ATTF militants surrendered a Japanese wireless set.

January 11: Six NLFT cadres surrendered at the headquarters of Assam Rifles in capital Agartala along with one SLR, two rifles and one revolver with live cartridges.

August 10: Nine ATTF militants, including four women, surrendered before the SFs in the Khowai town of West District after fleeing from their Satchari camp in the Sylhet District of Bangladesh. They also deposited a cache of arms and ammunition, including AK series rifles, one mortar and foreign made ammunition.

August 18: Five NLFT militants surrendered before Assam Rifles officials in three separate incidents in the South District.

September 14: Four NLFT militants surrendered at three separate places in the Dhalai District.

September 17: At least six militants, including a woman, surrendered before the SFs in two separate places in West District.

The continuous stream of surrenders and the sense of entitlement the scheme has generated in surrendered cadres over the years, has led to some administrative problems, with surrendered militants complaining about delays in their promised resettlement. Surrendered militants have alleged that they have not been compensated and consequently threatened to pick up the gun again. On October 8, 2009, surrendered militants of the ATTF and the Tribal Liberation Army (TLA) threatened to launch a 72-hour hunger strike from October 12, after they failed to get proper rehabilitation. Sailen Kumar Reang, General Secretary of the surrendered ATTF militants, and Padhya Debbarma, the TLA General Secretary, informed Chief Minister Manik Sarkar of their agitation plans. They disclosed that over 100 surrendered militants were fully prepared to carry on the hunger strike if the State Government failed to take any meaningful steps to address their grievances. Both groups had been demanding allotment of residential quarters at the new Kunjaban Township, an upmarket area in capital Agartala, and a stipend of INR 4,000 per month until Government employment is provided. However, no subsequent action was taken by the surrendered militants on the hunger strike.

Among the 47 militancy-related incidents reported in 2009, seven involved arrests, in which 35 militants of different outfits were apprehended, seven of the NLFT, 11 of the ATTF, 7 of the People’s United Liberation Front (PULF) of Manipur, five National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) militants from Nagaland, three Bru National Liberration Front (BNLF) militants and two BNCT militants.

The NLFT was involved in 22 incidents in 2009, and, after two decades of existence, appears to be on its last lap, with large scale surrenders of its cadres. According to information gathered from surrendered militants of the group, almost all of the 23 camps run by the NLFT in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh have been closed down, with leaders, including its chief Biswamohan Debbarma, now staying in posh flats in Chittagong town and Dhaka. The militants got into trouble shortly after the new Bangladesh Government headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed assumed power and initiated some action to curb the Northeast militants. Reports indicate that the NLFT was unable to secure official patronage within Bangladesh and their earlier freedom of movement was substantially curtailed, even as facilities available in the camps dried up, rapidly demoralizing cadres.

At peak, the NLFT had more than 800 cadres, but current strength, according to official sources, has been whittled down to "two dozen". Realising that growing marginalisation was clouding their future, the NLFT leadership, still in Bangladesh, has reportedly started a fresh recruitment drive in an attempt to launch a new offensive in the run-up to the Autonomous District Council elections slated for April 2010. Sources in the Special Branch (intelligence wing) of the Tripura Police indicate that, as the first step towards strengthening the organisation, the NLFT recruited 40 tribal youth and sent them to the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh for training in guerrilla warfare. The sources said that, in October 2009, this group, hailing from poor households in the Sadar, Khowai, Gandacherra, Amarpur and Kanchanpur sub-divisions, had crossed over to the Chittagong Hill Tracts through the hilly and unfenced eastern border of Tripura, in six clusters. Utpal Debbarma, an unemployed tribal engineer, who had passed out of Tripura Engineering College and joined the NLFT after trouble with the Police in 2001, was leading the recruitment drive.

The ruling Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), the major constituent of the ruling Left Front in Tripura, has accused the regional Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) of working as an "overground front" for the banned militants. The CPI-M spokesman, Gautam Das, stated on November 1, 2009: "The NLFT and the ATTF are aided and abetted by the leaders of the regional parties, who hope to use them in elections against the Left Front." Das alleged that the INPT leaders’ recent visit to Delhi had been sponsored by the NLFT. Das claimed, further, "The INPT leaders are trying to blunt the edge of Security Forces’ operations by making false allegations, so that the NLFT can launch fresh offensive before the Autonomous District Council polls to rig the elections as they did in the April 2000 polls but they will not succeed."

Addressing the Chief Ministers' Conference on Internal Security at New Delhi on August 18, 2009, Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar had said that insurgent groups had been using Bangladesh as a safe haven to carry out militant activities in the Northeast: "We have been giving definite information about the existence of terror infrastructure in Bangladesh, details of cross border movement of these groups and their training with the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence]… Sealing of the border effectively is of prime importance to prevent cross border movement of insurgents. Arrangements like flood lighting, speedy completion of barbed wire fencing and strengthening of BSF [Border Security Force] along the border should be accorded highest priority." Sarkar, who also holds the Home Minister’s portfolio, has demanded increasing of the strength of the Border Security Force for effective management of the 856-kilometre porous border with Bangladesh. "For effective guarding of the borders, there is a need to set up additional 40 border outposts in Tripura for which five additional battalions of BSF would be required," he added. He also asked the Union Government to enter into an extradition treaty with Bangladesh to get hold of the militants hiding in the neighbouring country: "I feel that the time is now ripe for entering into an extradition treaty with Bangladesh for which the Union Government may like to take necessary steps." Stressing that Bangladesh continued to be a safe haven for militants active in India’s North East, he reiterated that Tripura was being used as a corridor for their movement into and from other States in the region. Meanwhile, the Tripura Director General of Police, Pranay Sahaya, disclosed, on November 5, 2009, that the rate of infiltration from Bangladesh into Tripura was decreasing. "Altogether 2,000 Bangladeshi infiltrators were pushed back from Tripura in 2007. The number declined to 1,000 last year and this year, it is slightly more than 600," he added.

Successful counter-insurgency operations over the years have led to peace in Tripura. The model of response in the State, where the Tripura Police was the lead agency in the counter-insurgency grid, can provide valuable lessons to security agencies fighting insurgencies elsewhere in the Northeast and across the country.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 2-8, 2009

 

Civilian

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist/Insurgent

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
4
5

Manipur

2
0
10
12

Jammu and Kashmir

1
1
5
7

Tripura

1
0
0
1

Left-wing Extremism

 

Bihar

0
0
1
1

Chhattisgarh

2
0
0
2

Jharkhand

0
0
1
1

Orissa

1
0
0
1

West Bengal

4
4
0
8

Total (INDIA)

12
5
21
38

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
0
0
1

FATA

7
9
173
189

NWFP

13
4
22
39

Punjab

31
4
3
38

Total (PAKISTAN)

52
17
198
267
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

‘Foreign secretary’ and ‘finance secretary’ of ULFA arrested in Dhaka: The ‘foreign secretary’ Sashadhar Choudhury and ‘finance secretary’ Chitraban Hazarika of the Indian terrorist outfit United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) were arrested by intelligence officials from the Sector 3 area of capital Dhaka in the night of November 1, 2009. Reports indicate that, following confirmation of detention of the two top ULFA leaders by Bangladesh, India, on November 5, opened diplomatic channels to get them back into the country. The ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ of ULFA, Raju Baruah, however, claimed that their two leaders were already handed over to India by Bangladesh. Without naming India, Raju Baruah told a section of media in Assam that Bangladeshi intelligence officials arrested the duo from the Sector 3 area in Dhaka and handed them over to the "enemy". Raju Baruah further said that Bangladesh Police had raided some other areas in Dhaka where, they believed, the ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa was hiding. He also warned Bangladesh that the sovereignty of the country would be at stake if it did not set Sashadhar and Chitraban free. Meanwhile, Indian Home Ministry officials denied this claim made by the ULFA. Sentinel Assam; Assam Tribune, November 6, 2009.



INDIA

Maoists ready for talks if there is a ‘cease-fire’: Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) politburo member Koteswar Rao alias Kishen said, on November 5, 2009, that the extremists were ready for talks "if there was cease-fire on both sides" and withdrawal of the deployed paramilitary forces from the insurgency-affected States. "The process of talks with the Central Government can only begin if there is cease-fire on both sides," Kishen said. When asked to comment on the Centre’s condition that the Maoists should abjure violence and only then it was ready to sit across the table, Kishen told PTI over the phone, "The Centre is killing innocent people in the name of tackling the Maoists and they are asking us to abjure violence, which is ridiculous." He said the Centre would have to withdraw the paramilitary forces from the seven States — Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal — and treat the problems of the tribals in a sympathetic way. "Also, both the Centre and the State Governments will have to apologise to the tribals for the prolonged atrocity meted out to them and the consequent suffering from the time of Independence," Kishen added. Asked what should be the nature of the apology, he said, without elaborating, "They will have to come to the tribals and apologise."

Separately, a statement dated November 3, was released by the CPI-Maoist central committee member and party spokesperson Azad on November 4, ruling out accepting the demand that they must end violence. It said, "An agreement could be reached on by both sides on a ceasefire if Manmohan Singh [Prime Minister] and P. Chidambaram [Union Home Minister] give up their irrational, illogical and absurd stand that Maoists should abjure violence… Asking Maoists to lay down arms as a pre-condition for talks shows the utter ignorance of Manmohan Singh and P. Chidambaram regarding historical and socio-economic factors that gave rise to the Maoist movement.'' The Hindu, November 6, 2009.

Lashkar-e-Toiba planning more terrorist attacks in India: A day after the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) plot to attack key installations and schools was revealed by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), more details were reported on November 4, 2009, about the terror plan directed at India. As per a report obtained by Zeenews, the LeT is planning more 26/11- (the November 26, 2008 attack in Mumbai) like attacks in India. FBI inputs suggest that popular tourist spots, international boarding schools and several key installations in India are the prime targets of LeT this time. The terrorist outfit also has major plans to target American and Israeli citizens currently visiting and residing in India. In addition, two unidentified militants associated with the LeT’s Bangladesh module have successfully sneaked into India through the eastern border. The FBI has warned Indian intelligence agencies that they have strong evidence about one of the two militants being in Maharashtra. The other is said to targeting a major tourist spot, but keeping a low profile at present in order to avoid detection by the Indian intelligence agencies. The two militants are said to be acting on the basis of specific instructions from LeT ‘commanders’ Ilyas Kashmiri and Abu Sayed. Zee News, November 5, 2009.

Naxals may be getting small arms from China, says Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai: The Government on November 8 indicated that China might be a source of small arms for Naxalites (Left Wing extremists) who may be procuring them through smugglers. "Chinese are big smugglers... suppliers of small arms. I am sure that the Maoists also get them," Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai said, when asked if the Naxals had links with China. He, however, made it clear that the Government had no information that the Communist Pry of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) had any links with China except getting arms. "I do not think so, except getting arms," added. Pillai did not elaborate on the exact source of the Chinese arms. Times of India, November 9, 2009.


PAKISTAN

173 militants among 189 persons killed during the week in FATA: The Security Forces (SFs) killed 20 Taliban militants "over the last 24 hours" and found a huge cache of arms and ammunition, while eight soldiers – including an officer – were injured in Operation Rah-e-Nijat in various parts of South Waziristan. A statement by the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said, on November 8, that troops consolidated their positions around Sararogha, Raghzai and Sagar Langer Gel, killing three Taliban in a clash: "Eight soldiers – including an officer – were injured and 12 Taliban were killed ... a factory for manufacturing IED components ... was found in Gadawai… Taliban fired small arms and rockets in Blanki Sar, Lagar Manza, Kund Mela and Makeen ... 5 Taliban were killed in clash."

At least 10 Taliban militants were killed in a clash in the Zachmir Kund area of Mohmand Agency on November 8, official sources disclosed. The clash erupted when Taliban attacked security forces with sophisticated weapons during a search operation in the area. Two SF personnel were also killed in fighting – which continued for about four hours. Five security personnel were injured.

The SFs killed three Taliban militants on November 8 and arrested another one in an injured condition, while eight others surrendered to the SFs in the Bajaur Agency.

On November 7, the SFs killed 12 Taliban militants in the Makeen town of South Waziristan. The SFs cleared the eastern edge of Makeen during efforts to secure the town.

Troops on November 6 entered Makeen as the military killed 24 militants in clashes. "Today (Friday), security forces moved into Makeen, which is considered the headquarters of the Taliban. A large part of town has been cleared. In the remaining parts, a search-and-clearance operation is underway," an ISPR statement disclosed, adding that intense clashes were in progress, and Taliban militants were fleeing the area – leaving behind their weapons and ammunition. Troops killed at least 21 militants in Makeen, where a house owned by slain TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud was also demolished. The Security Forces are also consolidating their positions around Sararogha, where search-and-clearance operations are underway. Troops, in addition, killed at least three TTP militants when the group fired rockets in Sararogha. Separately, a soldier was killed and six others sustained injuries during a search and clearance operations by the SFs in the Bara sub-division of Khyber Agency on November 6.

The SFs secured Ladha Fort in South Waziristan Agency on November 5 and consolidated their positions on peaks around another militant base. An ISPR statement indicated that 28 TTP militants had been killed, taking the death toll for the outfit to 422 since the Operation Rah-e-Nijat began on October 17, 2009. Five soldiers, including an officer, were killed and two were injured on November 5, according to the statement. Further, "Security Forces have secured Ladha Fort and the northeast area of Shashak and also cleared Bangel Khel." SFs secured the Ladha Fort and consolidated their positions on the peaks in the Sararogha area where the five soldiers were killed in a blast. The troops also conducted house-to-house search and clearance operations in the Spin Qamar, Wucha Kauna Algad and Lugar Manza areas. The SFs also recovered a heavy cache of arms from the Razmak-Makeen axis. Separately, four persons were killed when a US pilotless plane struck a house with missiles in the Naurak village of North Waziristan Agency on November 5. Tribal sources said the CIA-operated drone fired two missiles at 1:25 am at a house of a tribesman named Musharraf in Naurak, 12 kilometres from Miranshah, the headquarters of North Waziristan, killing four persons. The political administration confirmed the attack but denied any casualties. In addition, two militants were killed and three volunteers of a peace committee were injured in a clash over the abduction of a doctor in the Sturikhel area of Orakzai Agency on November 5.

At least 30 militants were killed and eight soldiers, including two officers, sustained injuries in clashes and street fighting as the troops entered the Taliban stronghold of Ladha in South Waziristan Agency on November 4. Official sources said the fighting continued in Ladha and Sararogha and the troops cleared a major part of Sararogha following its capture a day earlier and withdrawal of most of the militants from the area. Political administration officials said the troops have also entered the Sam, Gadwai, Asman Manza and Karwan Manza areas. They said the troops faced tough resistance from the militants in Gadwai during their advance towards Ladha. However, the SFs managed to reach there after clashes with militants. Separately, four militants were killed when the SFs exchanged fire with them after an attack on a check-post at Hangu-Parachinar border in the Kurram Agency in the night of November 3. A woman was also killed and three others sustained injuries when an artillery shell fell at a house in Spim Wam during the exchange of fire. In addition, two female schoolteachers were killed on November 4 when the Taliban militants ambushed their car in Shandai Mor, two kilometres from Khar in Bajaur Agency. Shazia Begum and Shamim Bibi, teachers at the Communal Girls School, were travelling from the school when militants fired on the vehicle, killing the two and injuring two other persons.

The SFs advanced towards Janta on November 3 after securing areas around the Taliban stronghold of Sararogha in the South Waziristan Agency, where 21 militants and one soldier were reported dead by the ISPR. Official sources said the troops had secured the areas around Sararogha while clashes had taken place near Makeen and Sam where the militants were offering resistance. The troops claimed killing 16 militants during clashes in Sararogha while a soldier was killed and another injured in a landmine explosion in the area.

The ISPR Director General, Major General Athar Abbas, said on November 2 that the SFs had gained complete control of Kaniguram, a major stronghold of Uzbek fighters. He said the terrorists there had been using modern weaponry, fortified positions and bunkers, adding that the entire area had been cleared of mines and improvised explosive devices. He said the military had also secured Karama village, east of Kaniguram, and that other strategically important points around Kaniguram had also been secured. Giving details of Operation Rah-e-Nijat, he said 12 militants had been killed in the preceding 24 hours, and that six SF personnel had been injured. Separately, seven Taliban militants were killed in clashes with the SF personnel and aerial strikes in Bajaur Agency on November 2. The air and ground assault focused on Ovishah, Seolai, Kharkay and Badalai areas in the Mamoond sub-division, destroying four terrorist hideouts. The SFs also reportedly clashed with the militants in Mulla Said and Mataak in the Salarzai sub-division. Dawn; Daily Times; Jang, November 3-9, 2009.

22 militants and 13 civilians among 39 persons killed during the week in NWFP: At least 13 people, including a local councillor heading an anti-Taliban lashkar (militia), were killed and 44 injured, when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a cattle market at Adezai village, 25 kilometres south of Peshawar on November 8. Peshawar Senior Superintendent of Police (Operations) Muhammad Karim Khan said that that around eight-to-10 kilograms of explosives were used in the blast. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.

Five Taliban militants and three Security Force (SF) personnel were killed in a clash at Tura Warai area of Hangu on November 7.

Eight militants were killed and four were arrested during search operations in the Swat District on November 6. According to the Swat Media Centre, the SFs conducted search operations in the Dakorak area of Charbagh sub-division early in the morning. During an exchange of fire with troops, local Taliban leader Fida Hussain and his four aides, Latif, Arsal Khan, Mohammad Anwar and Roshan, were killed. In another encounter, militant leader Fazal Maabud was killed and his unnamed associate was injured. In the Kabal sub-division, troops killed suspected militants Abdul Wali and Bakht Sher in a clash. Elsewhere in the province, an official of the Frontier Constabulary was killed and four persons, including a woman and boy, were injured in a militant attack on the Tora Warai Fort in Thall sub-division of Hangu District on November 6.

SFs killed at least four suspected Taliban militants in the Hangu District on November 4. A private TV channel reported that SF personnel were attacked by the Taliban at the Spin Thall check-post, near the District’s border with Kurram Agency in the FATA. The SFs killed four militants in retaliation. Separately, two alleged suicide bombers accidentally blew themselves up on their way to the PAF Range road, 25 kilometres from Kohat city in the Kohat District. According to Police, the suicide bombers were riding a motorcycle. After apparently slipping on the road, one of the bomber’s jacket accidentally exploded. Police teams have recovered the arms, legs and head of one of the bombers, the channel reported.

A would-be suicide bomber was killed before reaching his target in the Lachi sub-division of Kohat District on November 3. The Deputy Inspector General of Police, Abdullah Khan, told The News that a would-be suicide bomber, riding a motorcycle, was heading to his alleged target when he was blown up near the Iftikhar Well area in Lachi at 9:15 pm (PST). Elsewhere in the NWFP, a militant was killed and two others sustained injuries during a search operation carried out by the SFs at Manago area in the Shangla District on November 3. Dawn; Daily Times; Jang, November 3-9, 2009.

Anti-Money Laundering Bill 2009 approved: The National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance on November 3, 2009 approved the Anti-Money Laundering Bill 2009, declaring "terrorism financing" a criminal offence. Officials of the Finance Ministry and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reportedly informed the committee members that Pakistan, being a signatory to various UN conventions, required laws in line with international standards to combat money laundering and terrorism financing. The committee meeting, presided over by Fauzia Wahab, was attended by Finance Minister Shaukat Tareen, Finance Secretary Salman Siddique, the SBP deputy governor, SBP Banking Policy director and other senior officials. The committee also approved increases in penalties from PKR 1 million to PKR 5 million for a company or its employees found guilty of an offence under the proposed bill. The committee was informed that the amendments were in line with international standards on combating money laundering and financing of terrorism. In the proposed bill, the definition of "financial institutions" includes any institution accepting deposits and other repayable funds from public, lending in whatsoever form, financial leasing, money or valuable transfer, managing credit and debit cards, cheques, travellers cheque, money orders, bank drafts and electronic money among other financial activities. Daily Times, November 4, 2009.

35 persons killed in suicide attack in Rawalpindi: At least 35 persons, including two women and children, were killed and 63 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a branch of the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) in Rawalpindi on November 2, 2009. The majority of the blasts victims were reportedly military personnel and employees of the Defence Ministry who had queued up at the NBP Shalimar Plaza Branch to draw their salaries. It was the second terrorist attack in the Red Zone area of the garrison city within a month. According to eyewitnesses, many of the victims were retired military personnel who had gathered at the bank to draw their pensions. Several surrounding offices, part of a nearby hotel and a number of vehicles were also destroyed. Eyewitnesses said the attack occurred at 10:40 AM, when a man riding a motorcycle approached the parking lot of the plaza and blew himself up in front of the NBP branch, in close proximity to the Pearl Continental Hotel, the military’s General Headquarters and the State Bank of Pakistan. Rawalpindi Regional Police Officer (RPO) Aslam Tareen confirmed the eyewitnesses’ account: "We found parts of a suicide vest and some body parts of the suicide attacker. At least 35 people were killed and 63 others were wounded." The Inter-Services Public Relations Director General, Major General Athar Abbas, said four soldiers were killed and nine injured in the attack. Daily Times, November 5, 2009.


SRI LANKA

Number of IDPs reduced to 150,000: The Resettlement and Disaster Relief Services Minister Rishard Bathiudeen announced that the resettlement of 50 percent of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who were in the welfare villages in the Northern Province, at their former homes, was a major success for the Government. The number of IDPs had now been reduced to 150,000 from the original total of 280,000. The Minister revealed this information at the special media conference held in the Parliamentary Complex on November 4, 2009. "We are progressively going ahead in the resettlement process of the IDPs under the directive of the President Mahinda Rajapakse, in accordance with Northern Spring (the Government’s plans for socio-economic and political reconstruction of the war-ravaged North) with the unstinted co-operation of Basil Rajapaksa, Member of Parliament, the Senior Advisor to the President and the Chairman of the Presidential Task Force," the Minister stated. Further, the Nation Building Minister S. M. Chandrasena stated that 19 heavy machines had been imported from Czech Republic to propel the de-mining process in the Northern Province. Daily News, November 5, 2009.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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