| |
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 48, June 6, 2011
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
An
'Accident' Averted
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Parliament
passed the Ninth Amendment to the Interim Constitution
in the morning of May 29, 2011, to extend the Constituent
Assembly (CA) by another three months, changing the language
of Article 64 to state that “the term of CA will be three
years and three months from the date of its first meeting.”
The Amendment came after an extended crisis which threatened
to pull down the fragile constitutional structure that
has been established in this long-troubled country.
On May
12, 2011, the Government registered a proposal in Parliament
to amend the Interim Constitution and extend the tenure
of the CA by one year. On May 25, however, the Supreme
Court (SC) ruled out the extension of the CA term, except
under a state of emergency or some other special circumstances,
according to the doctrine of necessity, and for no more
than six months. Issuing the final verdict, the SC stated,
“Since the CA tenure cannot be extended for more than
six months as per the restrictive clause of Article 64
of the Interim Constitution during state of emergency,
it is wrong to extend the tenure for more than six months
in normal situation (sic).” It even overruled the
November 4, 2010, verdict issued by a three-member Special
Bench of the Court, which had allowed the extension of
the tenure of the CA ‘until promulgation of the Constitution’.
This is
the second time the CA’s term has been extended. Initially
elected for a period of two years in 2008, the CA was
extended for a period of one year on May 28, 2010, by
an amendment of the original provision of Article 64.
Political parties sought a further extension as the task
of drafting of the Constitution is still to be completed.
The current
extension became possible only after a five-point agreement
among the three largest political parties in the CA –
the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M),
Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal – Unified
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). The agreement includes the
following:
-
Completion
of fundamentals of the peace process within three
months
-
Preparation
of the first draft of the new Constitution within
three months
-
Implementation of
past agreements with the Madheshi Morcha by developing
the Nepal Army as an inclusive institution
-
Extension of the Constituent
Assembly term by three months
-
Prime Minister (PM)
Jhalanath Khanal's resignation to pave way for formation
of a national consensus Government
Later,
on May 30, UCPN-M chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka
Prachanda stated that the extended three-month period
of the CA was the “biggest test” for the political parties
and people, and observed, “But we averted a big accident
that was about to happen in the nation.” However, the
divided political spectrum of the country, compounded
by a worsening security situation, suggests that, though
the ‘accident has been averted’, there is no end to such
conditions arising again in days to come.
To start
with, even the implementation of five-point agreement
will be a real hurdle. While, the fourth condition has
already been fulfilled, none of the other conditions are
likely to be met within the stipulated time frame as there
is no majority consensus for any of the points to be implemented.
The formation of a national consensus Government can only
prove to be a real ordeal. During first extension of the
CA’s term on May 28, 2010, the leaders of these three
large parties had struck a deal according to which then
Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal was to tender his resignation
‘at an appropriate time’ to pave the way for the formation
of a ‘consensus Government’. Nepal took seven months to
find an ‘appropriate time’ for his resignation, and the
national consensus Government remained a chimera.
Crucially,
major contentious issues continue to trouble the political
class, blocking the drafting of the Constitution and the
resolution of major differences. Despite the Maoists agreement
in principal to the Nepal Army’s model of integration
of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cadres, sharp division
among parties remain on the number of Maoists to be integrated.
Reports indicate that, while the Maoists are now demanding
the integration of some 7,000 PLA combatants, the NC and
other political parties are adamant upon limiting the
maximum number to 5,000. Significantly, more than 19,000
Maoist ‘combatants’ staying in seven major and 21 satellite
camps across the country are awaiting integration or rehabilitation,
though allegations regarding the inclusion of a large
number of ineligible persons are widespread.
The surrender
of arms by the Maoists is another bone of contention.
Despite all the political parties urging the Maoists to
give up arms, the Maoists remain wary. On May 27, 2011,
Dahal, ruling out the surrender of PLA weapons to the
state authority, noted that the process would be "illogical
and immature". “We won’t surrender. If needed we
are ready to become martyrs instead,” he declared. However,
on June 4, Barshaman Pun, member of the Special Committee
for Supervision, Integration and Rehabilitation of Maoist
combatants, disclosed, "We have begun collecting
weapons and have kept them at the Nayabazaar-based residence
of Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' and the process
of returning PLA security personnel to their respective
camps will begin from Sunday [June 5]."
Endorsement
of the Constitution by a two-thirds majority is another
hopeless talk under the prevailing circumstances. Barring,
Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Nepal (MJF-N), which is a part
of the ruling alliance, all other Madhesh based parties,
along with NC, have said they will not accept a Constitution
promulgated by a two-thirds majority, while the Maoists
and CPN-UML are pushing for this outcome. These parties
are insisting on promulgation of the Constitution by consensus
alone.
Evidently,
continuing inter-party rivalry remains a major obstacle.
Worse, there has been a significant rise in intra-party
rivalry as well. The Maoists appear to be a progressively
divided house. The faction led by Vice Chairman Mohan
Baidya has disowned the five-point agreement, declaring
that the pact was against the party’s official policy,
endorsed by the Central Committee (CC). The political
report presented by Baidya in the CC meeting that concluded
on April 30 noted, “The People’s Constitution writing
process and Army Integration should go hand in hand and
the present Government should be continued.” Similar divisions
are evident among the leaders of the CPN-UML. Pradip Nepal,
Politburo member of the party claimed, on May 11, that
the Prime Minister had become “half Maoist” already. Further,
senior CPN-UML leader K. P. Oli accused both Khanal and
Prachanda of running the show in the country by hatching
conspiracies.
Chaotic
political conditions have contributed to a deteriorating
security scenario. Regular reports of clashes among the
cadres of the different political parties have been received.
In a recent incident, a group of 60 UCPN-M cadres from
the Chulachuli-based PLA First Division Camp of Ilam attacked
local people in Kamal Jhoda, injuring at least 12, and
‘capturing’ five others in the night of May 16, 2011.
The NC claimed that the people attacked and ‘captured’
were its party cadres. Moreover, normal life is repeatedly
paralyzed due to near-continuous shutdowns imposed by
various political as well as armed outfits. While the
whole of Terai is simmering,
the capital, Kathmandu, is also in the line of fire. Significantly,
on April 7, Police arrested five senior cadres of the
Communist Party of Nepal (People's Revolutionary), an
underground armed group, from Baluwatar in Kathmandu and
Jagati in Bhaktapur District. Police disclosed that the
arrested persons were holding a meeting and making plans
to bomb several places in the Kathmandu Valley.
Nevertheless,
there have been several positive developments in the
recent past, as well. The sub-committee, headed
by Prachanda, formed under the Constitutional Committee,
on May 19, 2011, resolved eight disputes surrounding the
draft Constitution, including its name. A meeting of the
Sub-committee decided to name the statute the 'Constitution
of Nepal'. There had been six disputes over the name.
The Sub-committee also decided to forgo any mention of
the Maoist combatants vis-a-vis the peace process
in the Constitution. Similarly, the panel also decided
to incorporate the clauses of fundamental rights within
the Directive Principles of the State. Again on May 20,
the Sub-committee agreed not to include the provision
of compulsory military training to citizens above 18 years
of age in the new Constitution. The sub-committee is yet
to resolve another 21 disputes, including the system of
governance, restructuring of the state, and the electoral
system.
Further,
on May 28, despite strong reservations from the Madhesh-based
parties, the UCPN-M, NC and CPN-UML agreed, for the second
time, to form a high-level State Restructuring Commission.
The Commission, which will comprise of experts picked
by the parties, is expected to recommend a viable model
and number of federal provinces to be established in the
Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal. Later, on May 31,
these parties, informally agreed on two other issues —
ending dual security, by the State and the PLA, being
provided to Maoist leaders ‘within a week’ and issuing
a progress report or ‘white paper’ incorporating all contentious
issues pertaining to the Constitution drafting process.
The ‘white paper’ will be unveiled in the CA, CPN-UML
leader Pradeep Gyawali disclosed. Significantly, on June
5, UCPN-M formally began the process of sending PLA combatants
deployed for the security of Maoist leaders to the cantonments.
48 PLA combatants were deployed for the security of different
Maoist leaders under the leadership of ‘division commander’
Santu Darai.
Speaking
of these developments on May 25, UCPN-M leader Dahal noted
that there was a wrong impression among the people that
the ongoing Constitution drafting and peace processes
were not moving forward, but the fact was that more than
250 disputed issues had been reduced to a mere 21. The
ability of the political parties to effectively monitor
the peace process after UNMIN's departure and the PLA
being brought under the jurisdiction of the Army Integration
Special Committee have demonstrated notable achievements
and progress in the peace process. Similarly, Prime Minister
Jhala Nath Khanal, in his televised address to the nation
on May 31, observed that the parties had already finalized
several pending issues concerning the new Constitution
and that ‘something significant’ could be expected in
the peace process in a few weeks time. In another major
development, it has been announced that Nepal will be
declared a mine-free country by mid-June.
Despite
these positives, uncertainty continues to loom large in
this nascent Himalayan democracy. The big question is,
what would happen if the Maoists came to lead the Government?
The CPN-UML CC meeting on June 2, 2011, declared, “Our
plan is that the national unity Government will be installed
by June 29 and the UCPN-M will lead that Government.”
Given the
Maoists track record in Government, their restoration
to power may, once again, prove to be a polarizing factor.
The Ministry of Home Affairs, currently headed by Maoist
Krishna Bahadur Mahara, has been working at full swing
to withdraw criminal cases against Maoist cadres charged
with various offences — including serious crimes dating
back to the period of insurgency. According to senior
Home Ministry officials, Mahara has been asking them to
expedite compilation of a list of cases registered against
Maoist cadres from courts across the country. This is
not the first time that the Maoist leadership has tried
to get their party workers off the hook. In October 2008,
the Maoist-led Government withdrew 349 criminal cases
against its cadres, according to official records.
Tremendous
gains have certainly been secured since the bloodshed
of the insurgency ended, and the absolute decline in political
violence in the country is one of the most significant
among these. Residual difficulties remain, of course,
and there is a lingering danger that extremists in one
political formation or another will be tempted to slide
into another sanguinary adventure. Despite the enormous
political difficulties that persist, and the absence of
coherent governance over vast areas of the country, however,
the flexibility and accommodation of divergent political
parties in Nepal, and the persistence of the peace process,
continues to surprise many. Nepal remains troubled, unstable,
and sometimes violent, but a fledgling democracy appears
to be taking root, and no political party has any presently
overriding interest in jeopardizing this.
|
No Country
for Freedom
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Pakistan’s
media history bears the scars of extreme intolerance at
the hands the country’s mullah-military combine
and the state. Amidst the ongoing violence purportedly
to avenge Osama bin Laden’s killing,
the brutal murder of Asia Times Online Pakistan
Bureau Chief, Syed Saleem Shahzad, on June 1, 2011, in
the Mandi Bahauddin District of Punjab province, about
75 miles south of Islamabad, represents only the latest
assault in the ‘war against freedom’ that has been ongoing
since the moment of this Islamic Republic’s troubled birth.
Speculation
is rife that Shahzad’s killing was the handiwork of the
Inter Services Intelligence (ISI),
and a credible narrative buttressing such a position has
been established. Shahzad was abducted on May 29, after
he exposed links between al Qaeda, a group of Naval personnel
and the ISI in the attack at the Pakistan Naval Station
(PNS) Mehran within Faisal Naval Airbase in Karachi. The
terrorist strike on May 22 killed 10 Security Force (SF)
personnel. Shahzad had also published a report in October
2010 about the arrest and subsequent release of Afghan
Taliban leader Mullah Baradar. According to that report,
Pakistani authorities, with the help of United States
(US), had arrested Baradar in Karachi in February 2010,
and then released him on October 16, 2010. Shahzad was
later called and questioned by the ISI.
Hameed
Haroon, President of the All Pakistan Newspapers Society
has written, on June 4, 2011,
I
wish to State on the record for the information
of the officers involved in investigating journalist
Saleem Shahzad's gruesome murder that the late journalist
confided to me and several others that he had received
death threats from various officers of the ISI on
at least three occasions in the past five years...
The last threat which I refer to was recorded by
Mr Shahzad by email with me, tersely phrased as
"for the record", at precisely 4:11am on October
18, 2010, wherein he recounted the details of his
meetings at the ISI headquarters in Islamabad between
the director general-media wing (ISI), Rear-Admiral
Adnan Nazir, with the deputy director general of
the media wing, Commodore Khalid Pervaiz, also being
present.
|
Notably,
soon after Baradar’s release, Shahzad sent an e-mail to
the editor of Asia Times Online, Tony Allison,
and to Human Rights Watch (HRW) Researcher, Ali Dayan,
expressing fears that he would be eliminated by the intelligence
agency.
Shahzad’s
recently published book, Inside al Qaeda and the Taliban:
Beyond Bin Laden and 9/11, further exposed ISI-al
Qaeda involvement in the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terrorist
attacks (26/11). The book argued that the attack was scripted
by ISI officers and approved for execution by al Qaeda
‘commanders’. Shahzad described the Mumbai plans as having
been pushed through by Illyas Kashmiri, a key al Qaeda
ally with wide links with the Pakistan defense establishment.
[Kashmiri, one of the al Qaeda leaders tipped to succeed
bin Laden, was killed in a US drone strike on June 3 at
Wana Bazar in South Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA)]. Shahzad clearly ‘knew too much’.
Confirming
the ISI’s role in Shahzad’s abduction, torture and murder,
HRW cited a “reliable interlocutor” who claimed that Shahzad
had been abducted by the ISI on May 29. Reports indicate
that Shahzad’s family had contacted ISI officials after
his ‘disappearance’, and had been assured that he would
be released ‘shortly’. Instead, his body, with marks of
torture, was recovered from a canal on June 1. Shahzad’s
killing, Ali Dayan of HRW notes, “bears the hallmarks
of previous killings perpetrated by the Pakistan Intelligence
Agencies,” adding, “It is quite clear by his own account
and from his reports that they [ISI] were deeply unhappy
with his reporting.”
Unsurprisingly,
accusing media of acting irresponsibly an unnamed ISI
official stated that “some sections of the media have
taken upon themselves to use the incident for targeting
and maligning the ISI.” The ISI defence was backed by
a statement from Interior Minister Rehman Malik that,
“Saleem Shahzad’s murder could be a case of personal enmity”,
though no evidence was provided in support of this claim,
nor was any attempt made to explain the circumstances
of Shahzad’s disappearance and death. Further, several
journalists who reacted to Shahzad’s killing, have now
disclosed that they were receiving ‘warnings’ from the
Army and the ISI.
Shahzad’s
disclosures regarding the arrest of a group of radicalized
Naval personnel at the Mehran Naval Base find some confirmation
in a WikiLeaks cable, dated March 2006, which quotes
the then Deputy Chief of Air Staff for Operations, Air
Vice Marshal (AVM) Khalid Chaudhry as stating, “You can’t
imagine what a hard time we have trying to get them to
trim their beards,” hinting at the penetration of extremist
clerics and militants into the country’s security establishment.
Shahzad’s
murder is only the most recent instance of the sustained
effort to throttle a surprisingly vigorous fourth estate
in Pakistan. According to the International News Safety
Institute (INSI), Pakistan is among the deadliest countries
for journalists, with 16 deaths reported in the year 2010.
The threat to journalists arises is particularly focused
on investigations against the most influential groups
in the country – the Army, the ISI and its extremist protégés.
At least 73 journalists have been killed in Pakistan since
2000, and 439 have been arrested or abducted.
Attack on Media:
2000-2011
Years
|
Killed
|
Assault/
Injured
|
Arrested/
abducted
|
Intimidated
|
Banned /Barred
/ Censored
|
Damage
to Property
|
2000
|
5
|
14
|
10
|
24
|
6
|
6
|
2001
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
2002
|
1
|
37
|
10
|
13
|
8
|
2
|
2003
|
2
|
7
|
4
|
17
|
2
|
1
|
2004
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
17
|
3
|
2
|
2005
|
3
|
7
|
13
|
18
|
28
|
3
|
2006
|
5
|
31
|
12
|
22
|
15
|
9
|
2007
|
11
|
215
|
325
|
79
|
43
|
16
|
2008
|
13
|
74
|
40
|
118
|
20
|
4
|
2009
|
10
|
70
|
10
|
28
|
35
|
10
|
2010
|
16
|
10
|
1
|
03
|
0
|
2
|
2011*
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
NA
|
Total
|
73
|
474
|
439
|
344
|
164
|
57
|
Source:
2000-2010: Intermedia
**Data till June 5, 2011: South Asia Terrorism Portal
The most
prominent killings of the recent past include:
May 10,
2011: Nasrullah Khan Afridi, the President of Tribal Union
of journalists, was killed when his car was blown up in
Khyber Supermarket of the Cantonment area in Peshawar.
Afridi had been receiving threatening calls from militants,
suspected to be the cadres of Lashkar-e-Islam (LI). He
had complained that local officials failed to provide
security despite repeated requests.
January
13, 2011: A journalist, identified as Wali Khan Babar,
was shot dead in Liaquatabad area of Karachi after reporting
on violence in the city.
September
14, 2010: Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants shot
dead a senior journalist, Misri Khan Orakzai, in front
of the Hangu Press Club building in Hangu Bazaar, Hangu
District, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
May 10,
2010: A local journalist, Ghulam Rasool Birhamani, was
killed in Wahipandhi village of Sindh.
Addressing
media organisation over the phone on August 2, 2010, in
the North Waziristan Agency of the FATA, the then TTP
spokesman Azam Tariq warned journalists that the “pro-America”
media was spreading false information about the Taliban
and told journalists to be ‘impartial’ in their profession.
“The media should avoid creating rifts in the ranks of
the Mujahedeen who are fighting a holy war,” he
said. His threats extended to include the Government of
Pakistan, who he accused of protecting NATO interests
in the region. Tariq vowed, “The TTP would continue its
resistance against such forces until the Pakistan Government
parted ways with the US led NATO forces." Earlier,
on January 10, 2010, the National Crisis Management Cell
of the Interior Ministry of Pakistan had disclosed that
TTP had decided to attack newspaper offices and renowned
journalists across the country.
The assault
on freedom is not restricted to the media alone. Indeed,
persistent negligence and, in at least some cases, probable
complicity, on the part of state authorities has led to
a situation where no intellectual or progressive voice
can speak out without risk of extreme retaliation from
one or the other of Pakistan’s violent constituencies.
Thus, on January 4, 2011, Punjab Governor Salman Taseer
was killed
by his own radicalised bodyguard Malik Mumtaz Qadri for
defending a Christian woman Asia Bibi, who had been accused
of blasphemy against the Prophet. On December 4, 2010,
an extremist Deobandi mullah, Maulana Yousuf Qureshi,
a senior member of the Jama’at-e-(Ghair) Islami
(a movement with an anti-secular and anti-democracy agenda),
known to have direct links with a local commander of the
Pakistan Army, declared, at Peshawar, “If the Government
does not hang Asia Bibi, then my mosque will offer a reward
of PNR 500,000 to anyone who kills her… No President,
no Parliament and no Government has any right to interfere
in the commandants of Islam. Islamic punishment will be
implemented at all costs.” No action was taken against
Qureshi for his call to murder.
On March
2, 2011, Federal Minister for Minorities’ Affairs, Shahbaz
Bhatti was killed by militants of Fidayeen-e-Muhammad,
a TTP faction, and al Qaeda Punjab Chapter, for his opposition
to the country’s blasphemy laws Bhatti’s
killing was also one among many incidents of minority
persecution. It is through the infamous anti-blasphemy
laws that hardline clerics persecute minorities, often
by baseless accusations of having offended Islam.
The religious
hardliners have also silenced another emerging voice against
the blasphemy laws, in this case, through the state itself.
Member of the National Assembly, Sherry Rehman, who had
proposed an Amendment to the Law, was forced to withdraw
her Bill by the ruling Pakistan People’s Party, of which
she is a member, in the wake of the Taseer killing. She
now lives in self-imposed isolation at her home in Karachi,
after receiving death threats from the religious extremists,
who have openly named her in their rallies in Karachi.
After Taseer and Bhatti, she is now the top target on
the terrorist hit list. The Aram Bagh mosque in Karachi
hung out a Jama’at-e-Islami (JI) banner that read “Death
to those who conspire against the blasphemy laws.” Clerics
constantly demand an immediate withdrawal of any anti-blasphemy
law initiatives, and the Sherry Rehman case indicates
that the Government is inclined to appease the extremists,
emboldening them even further.
According
to data collected by Pakistan’s National Commission for
Justice and Peace (NCJP), at least 964 persons have been
charged under anti-blasphemy clauses between 1986 and
August 2009. Moreover, at least 30 persons accused under
these provisions have been killed extra-judicially by
mobs or individuals. At least 64 people, including Aasia
Bibi, were charged under the blasphemy law in 2010,
the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) 2010 report
states. Three men, including two Christian brothers, accused
of blasphemy, have been killed in Police custody. The
law has extraordinarily perverse clauses that make the
mere testimony of two Muslims, with no corroborative evidence,
sufficient grounds for conviction – and a mandatory death
sentence. In several case in the past, it has been found
that complaints under the law have, in fact, been preceded
by personal and property disputes, and that the law has
been repeatedly and cynically abused.
The killing
of two prominent liberals in Pakistan’s power structure,
the suppression of others, and the enveloping context
of intimidation and terror – both by state and not state
agencies – has repeatedly exposed an easy partnership
between Islamist extremists and their defenders within
the political-military establishment. The killing of former
Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, was
a crucial case in point. Indeed, former President Pervez
Musharraf was indicted on February 12, 2011, for his involvement
in the Bhutto assassination. Bhutto had repeatedly demanded
enhanced protection during her election campaign, especially
after the October 18, 2007, assassination attempt by suicide
bombing, in which at least 139 persons were killed. Investigators
have concluded that Musharraf was directly responsible
for the decision to provide insufficient protection to
Bhutto, despite the constant threats and earlier attempt,
as well as intelligence inputs suggesting extreme risk.
Musharraf, of course, has denied responsibility, and continues
to blame TTP for both the attacks. Government prosecutors,
however, now allege that Musharraf was a part of the plot.
The lead prosecutor, Zulfiqar Ali Chaudhry, has argued,
“The probe has evidence that Musharraf was completely
involved through Baitullah Mehsud, the killed TTP leader
(sic).” On May 30, 2011, a Pakistan Anti-Terrorism
Court declared Musharraf a ‘proclaimed offender’ or fugitive
for failing to cooperate with investigators probing the
case.
‘Disappearances’
and ‘target killings’ of dissidents have become routine
in areas of conflict across the country – and most commentators
have linked an overwhelming proportion of these to the
Army and its secret agencies. Among numerous incidents,
Professor Saba Dashtiyari, a senior faculty member of
the University of Balochistan, was shot dead by ‘unidentified
assailants’ on June 1, 2011. Initial reports on the ongoing
investigations suggest that Dashtiyari was a Baloch nationalist
and held views directly opposed to the Islamabad establishment
and was deeply critical of the Army’s role in the Province,
specifically criticizing the torture and disappearance
of Baloch nationalists. Dashtiyari is only the most recent
in a long chain of ‘mysterious’ deaths generally attributed
to the ‘agencies’. According to the HRCP 2010 report,
a total of 998 persons have gone missing in Balochistan,
most of them allegedly abducted by Government agencies.
Among the
‘minorities’, the Ahmadiyas, have been particularly targeted
for violent discrimination by state and majority extremist
formations. The Ahmadiyas constitute 0.23 percent of the
population and are treated as heretics in Pakistan and
denied the right to refer to themselves as Muslims, or
to propagate their beliefs, since 1974. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto
– perhaps Pakistan’s most celebrated ‘secular’ leader
– declared the Ahmadis apostates by law. According to
the HRCP 2010 report, 99 Ahmadis were killed in faith-based
violence during the year. Impunity for perpetrators of
violence against minority communities is assured, and
no significant investigations or prosecutions ever ensue
after such incidents. It is significant that Pakistan
has seen a continuous decline in the population of non-Muslims
in the country, which now stands at under 3 per cent.
A US report
on April 8, 2011, noted that Pakistan had not held anyone
accountable for a 2009 incident in which men in military
uniforms shot dead six young men, who were lined up and
blindfolded with hands behind their backs in Swat District.
“A failure to credibly investigate allegations, impose
disciplinary or accountability measures and consistently
prosecute those responsible for abuses contributed to
a culture of impunity,” the report said.
There have
also been numberless instances of the Government shutting
down private television channels or blocking certain media
outlets from broadcasting, arresting, beating or intimidating
– directly or through extremist and criminal proxies –
journalists and members of their families, leading many
to practice extreme self-censorship.
While Islamist
extremism has secured unprecedented penetration into the
establishment in Pakistan, including the Army and its
agencies, over the past years, these trends are far from
new, and go back to the very hour of the creation of Pakistan.
On August 11, 1947, Liaqat Ali Khan and his associates
tried to black out passages of Qaid-e-Azam (Great
Leader) Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s speech to the Constituent
Assembly. On this cornerstone of distortion, successive
regimes – civil and military – have built an edifice of
repression that is now enforced by an intimate alliance
of Islamist extremists, radicalized and opportunistic
political parties, and the country’s dominant power, the
Army and its agencies. Over these decades, the spaces
for freedom in Pakistan have progressively diminished
to a point where they can now be accessed only at risk
of death.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in
South Asia
May 30-June 5, 2011
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Jammu &
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
Nagaland
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Bihar
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
West Bengal
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
3
|
1
|
10
|
14
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
FATA
|
1
|
0
|
30
|
31
|
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
|
29
|
35
|
72
|
136
|
Punjab
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Sindh
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
7
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
43
|
37
|
102
|
182
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina in favour of retaining Islam
as State religion: Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina on May 31 expressed herself
in favour of retaining Islam as the State religion.
Taking a departure from the 1972 Constitution, Hasina
said that the Arabic phrase "Bismillahir Rahmanir
Rahim" ("In the name of Allah, the Most Merciful,,
the Most Compassionate") will remain above the Preamble
of the Constitution. Daily
Star, June 1, 2011.
INDIA
Gaddafi
could be sponsoring anti-India militant outfit SSP,
reveal Wikileaks: A
newly-released WikiLeaks cable revealed that
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi could be financing a
Pakistan-based anti-India militant outfit, Sipah-e-Sahaba
Pakistan (SSP). The cable, which is based on information
received from a Deobandi scholar and a "long-standing"
contact of the US consulate in Lahore, said SSP leader
Mulana Ludhianvi travelled to Libya on a fundraising
trip sponsored by the Libyan government. Times
of India, June 2, 2011.
NPF
launches local unit in Manipur: Naga Peoples'
Front (NPF) launched its party unit at Senapati town
in Manipur on May 28. Thousands of Southern Nagas
from the four hills Districts of Senapati, Ukhrul,
Tamenlong and Chandel congregated at public ground,
Senapati, to witness the flag hoisting and declaration
programme of the NPF Manipur unit. The NPF made a
declaration that "integration" of Nagas is a birth
right that cannot be negotiated at any cost. Sentinel,
June 1, 2011.
'Inactive'
Maoists now working under Telangana banner in Andhra
Pradesh, claim security agencies: The Special
Intelligence Branch (SIB) of Andhra Pradesh Police,
which monitors activities of the Communist Party of
India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, has reportedly gathered
"credible information" about the Maoists carrying
their activities under the banner of the virtually-defunct
Telangana Political Joint Action Committee (JAC).
According to report, several "inactive" Maoists have
suddenly started participating in the political JAC
on the Statehood issue. Hindustan
Times, May 31, 2011.
Dialogue
with insurgent groups helped bringing down violence
level in North-Eastern region, says Union Home Minister
P. Chidambaram: Union
Home Minister P. Chidambaram on June 1 said that beginning
of dialogue with insurgent groups in the North-Eastern
region helped to bring down the level of violence
in that part of the country. Chidambaram said that
two of the insurgent groups are expected to sign an
agreement with the Centre in a couple of months and
National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah
(NSCN-IM) will present its document to the Government
for discussions soon. Kanglaonline,
June 2, 2011.
NEPAL
OHCHR
term extended by six months: The Government on
June 1 extended the term of Office of the United Nations
Human Rights Commissioner in Nepal (OHCHR-N) by another
six months with the same mandate. Its present mandate
is ending on June 9. The OHCHR and the western countries,
including the USA and the European countries, had
been lobbying for one year extension.
Nepal News, June 2, 2011.
Government
is trying to reach out to armed groups, says Peace
Minister Bishwonath Sah: Peace Minister Bishwonath
Sah on June 2 said the Government is going to send
letters to armed groups operating in Terai and eastern
hills, asking them to come to the negotiating table.
Sah said the talks with the armed groups were not
fruitful and claimed that the talks this time will
be decisive.
Nepal News, June 3, 2011.
PAKISTAN
72
militants and 35 SFs among 136 persons killed during
the week in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: At least 19 people
were killed and 45 others injured when a suicide bomber
attacked an Army-run bakery on the Mall Road in Nowshera
Cantonment area of Nowshera District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
in the night of June 5. In addition, six persons were
killed and another 11 injured when a bomb ripped through
a passenger vehicle parked at a bus terminal near
a market in Matani, about 20 kilometres (12 miles)
south of Peshawar.
The
Security Forces (SFs) killed 26 Afghan Taliban militants
on June 4 in the fourth day of fighting in the Upper
Dir District, close to the Afghan border.
At
least 27 SFs personnel were killed as Afghan Taliban
attack Shaltalo security post in the Upper Dir District,
close to the Afghan border, on June 2. 45 militants
were also killed in the clash that followed. Three
civilians were also killed during the clash.
Seven
SF personnel were killed when Taliban militants from
Afghanistan's Kunar province attacked and overran
Shaltalo security checkpost jointly manned by Frontier
Corps and Dir Levies in Berawal area of Upper Dir
District, close to the Afghan border, on June 1.
Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News; Tribune,
May 31-June 6, 2011.
30
militants among 31 persons killed during the week
in FATA: A US drone missile strike targeting a
compound on June 3 killed nine militants, including
top al Qaeda leader and chief of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami
(HuJI), Ilyas Kashmiri, in Ghwakhwa area, 10 kilometres
west of Wana, the main town of South Waziristan Agency
in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on June
3.
Pakistani
warplanes attacked Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
militants in Mirkalam Khel and Akhon Kot areas of
the north western Orakzai Agency in FATA on May 31
killing 18 terrorists.
Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News; Tribune,
May 31-June 6, 2011.
HuJI
chief Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri killed in US drone strike
in FATA: Top al Qaeda leader and 'head' of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami
(HuJI), Ilyas Kashmiri, was killed in a US drone strike
in Wana Bazaar area of South Waziristan Agency in
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) at 11:15
pm on June 3. A hand-written brief statement in Urdu-language
from a 'spokesman' of the HuJI, Abu Hamzullah Kasher,
distributed in Wana Bazaar on June 4 afternoon, confirmed
that Kashmiri was killed. "Harkatul Jihad al-Islami's
313 Brigade confirms that in Friday's drone attack
at 11:15pm our 'commander-in-chief', Muhammad Ilyas
Kashmiri, was martyred," the spokesman, Abu Hamzullah
Kasher said in the statement. On June 5, Pakistan's
Interior Minister Rehman Malik Malik was quoted by
Reuters as saying, "What I can say is there is a 98
per cent chance he is dead. Since we do not have the
body, we do not have DNA we need to confirm. This
is the substantive evidence we are looking for." Daily
Times; The
Hindu, June 5-6, 2011.
Pakistani
intelligence agencies uncover plot to assassinate
President Asif Ali Zardari: Pakistani intelligence
agencies have uncovered a plot to assassinate President
Asif Ali Zardari and arrested several persons. The
agencies conducted raids over the past few weeks in
Islamabad and Punjab and arrested up to 42 persons,
the report said. Times
of India, June 6, 2011.
Bomb
Disposal Squad averts one fourth of terror attacks
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, says Squad's Additional Inspector
General Shafqat Malik: Additional Inspector General
(AIG) of Bomb Disposal Squad (BDS), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
Shafqat Malik, said on June 2 that provincial BDS
officials had diffused 317 improvised explosive devices
(IEDs) in the current year and foiled 25 per cent
of terror acts in the province. AIG Malik said that
25 per cent of terror attempts were foiled in the
provincial capital by diffusing bombs, suicide jackets,
fuses and other explosive material. Dawn,
June 3, 2011.
New
al Qaeda video urges individual Jihad: Al Qaeda
has released a two-part 100-minute video apparently
produced after the death of Osama bin Laden that calls
for individual acts of jihad (Holy war) on
"enemy soil," a US-based monitoring service SITE said
on June 3. Among the several speakers are Ayman al-Zawahiri,
al Qaeda's long-time number two to bin Laden, and
American-born Adam Gadahn, who says that Muslims living
in the West are "perfectly placed to play an important
and decisive part in the jihad against the Zionists
and Crusaders." Dawn,
June 4, 2011.
LeT
continues to plan attacks from Pakistan, says US Government
Accountability Office report: Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT), an "extremely capable" terror group with a
sophisticated regional network continues to plan its
operations from within Pakistan, a US Government Accountability
Office (GAO) report said on June 4, warning that militant
safe havens inside that country pose greatest threat
to American national security. The GAO said al Qaeda
and other groups such as the Haqqani network used
the FATA to launch attacks in Afghanistan, plan operations
worldwide, train, recruit and disseminate propaganda.
Earlier
on June 3, US Secretary of Homeland Security Janet
Napolitano said, "LeT is a potent terrorist organisation.
It could be construed as a threat to the United States.
It certainly is to India."
Indian
Express; Daily
Times, June 4-6, 2011.
ISI
scripted Mumbai attack and al Qaeda cleared it, reveals
slain Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad's book:
According to a book written by slain Pakistani
journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad the Novemnber 26, 2008
Mumbai terrorist attacks (also known as 26/11) was
scripted by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers
and approved before it was cleared by al Qaeda 'commanders'.
The book titled 'Inside Al-Qaeda and the Taliban beyond
bin Laden and 9/11' describes the Mumbai plan as one
pushed through by Ilyas Kashmiri, a key al Qaeda ally
with wide links with the Pakistan defence establishment.
Shahzad says in the book that the plan was authored
by the ISI officers and embraced and executed by Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT). Times
of India, June 2, 2011.
ISI
linked with militants, reveals US State Department
cable: A diplomatic cable sent under the name
of United States (US) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
states that despite public disavowals, "some officials
of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate
continue to maintain ties with a wide array of extremist
organizations," in particular the Taliban and the
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). The cable, dated December 30,
2009 was sent to five US Embassies, including that
of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The
Hindu, June 1, 2011.
One
of the five Pakistan-based militant groups specifically
targets India, reveal US report: Pakistan is home
to a large number of militant outfits and can be broadly
divided into five groups, one of which specifically
targets India and Kashmir that gets the maximum support
from the establishment, a United States (US) Congressional
report on May31 said. India and Kashmir-oriented militants,
especially the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed
(JeM), and Harakat ul-Mujahideen (HuM), are based
in both the Punjab province and in Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir (PoK). The report said that the Islamist militant
groups operating in and from Pakistan territory are
of five broad types, namely, globally oriented militants,
Afghanistan-oriented militants, India- and Kashmir-oriented
militants, sectarian militants, and domestically oriented
militants. Indian
Express, June 1, 2011.
Plan
for operation in North Waziristan finalised, says
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen:
The United Sates (US) Joint Chiefs Of Staff Chairman
Admiral Mike Mullen on May 30 said that the Pakistani
Government would launch a major offensive on militants
in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA). "It's a very important fight
and a very important operation," the US Joint Chiefs
of Staff told a television network. Daily
Times, May 31, 2011.
Government
is not fond of military action in North Waziristan,
says Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani: The Government
is not fond of military action and wants to have an
exit strategy, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said
on June 1. The Government, he said, was not taking
dictation from anybody, "but it will take action when
its writ is challenged [in North Waziristan]". "We
will decide if there is any need for [an operation
in North Waziristan.] We will not meddle unnecessarily,"
the premier said.
On
the same day, Lieutenant General Asif Yasin Malik
, commander of the 11th Corps based in Peshawar, ruled
out an imminent offensive in North Waziristan, contradicting
a newspaper report that Pakistan had agreed to assault
North Waziristan following pressure from the United
States. Maliksaid there was no change in his forces'
posture in the last weeks.
Tribune;
Daily
Times, June 2, 2011.
Government
raises Defence budget by 11.4%: The Federal Government
has raised the defence budget by 11.36 percent by
allocating PKR 495 billion for the country's three
Armed Forces in the upcoming financial year 2011-12
against the upward revised budget of PKR 444.495 billion
in the outgoing fiscal year ending June 30. The Government
had been requested by the armed forces to make an
allocation of PKR 582 billion. Daily
Times , June 4, 2011.
ATC
declares former President Pervez Musharraf a "proclaimed
offender" in former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's
murder case: Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) on May
30 declared former President General Pervez Musharraf
a "proclaimed offender" in the December 2007 assassination
case of Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The
court had issued an arrest warrant of Musharraf in
February 2011 after Federal Investigation Agency investigators
declared him an "absconder". Daily
Times, May 31, 2011.
US
should delay Pakistan's aid, says Centre for Global
Development report: The United States should
delay much of its multibillion-dollar package to Pakistan
pending economic reforms as the aid has led to official
inaction and public resentment, said Centre for
Global Development study. The report comes as
more US lawmakers question aid to Pakistan after US
forces discovered and killed Osama bin Laden. Daily
Times, June 2, 2011.
SRI LANKA
Rehabilitation
and reintegration of ex-LTTE combatants successful,
says Sri Lankan Diplomat: Addressing the plenary
session of the 17th session of United Nations
Human Right Council on Protection and promotion of
Women in Geneva on June 3, Sri Lanka's envoy Sugeeshwara
Gunaratna said that the Sri Lankan Government had
successfully rehabilitated and reintegrated ex-combatants
of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). "All
female ex-combatants who were beneficiaries of this
program have now been released and are back with their
families," he added.
Colombo
Page, June 4, 2011.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
|
|
|