An 'Accident' Averted:No Country for Freedom::South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 9.48
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 48, June 6, 2011

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


NEPAL
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An 'Accident' Averted
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Parliament passed the Ninth Amendment to the Interim Constitution in the morning of May 29, 2011, to extend the Constituent Assembly (CA) by another three months, changing the language of Article 64 to state that “the term of CA will be three years and three months from the date of its first meeting.” The Amendment came after an extended crisis which threatened to pull down the fragile constitutional structure that has been established in this long-troubled country.

On May 12, 2011, the Government registered a proposal in Parliament to amend the Interim Constitution and extend the tenure of the CA by one year. On May 25, however, the Supreme Court (SC) ruled out the extension of the CA term, except under a state of emergency or some other special circumstances, according to the doctrine of necessity, and for no more than six months. Issuing the final verdict, the SC stated, “Since the CA tenure cannot be extended for more than six months as per the restrictive clause of Article 64 of the Interim Constitution during state of emergency, it is wrong to extend the tenure for more than six months in normal situation (sic).” It even overruled the November 4, 2010, verdict issued by a three-member Special Bench of the Court, which had allowed the extension of the tenure of the CA ‘until promulgation of the Constitution’.

This is the second time the CA’s term has been extended. Initially elected for a period of two years in 2008, the CA was extended for a period of one year on May 28, 2010, by an amendment of the original provision of Article 64. Political parties sought a further extension as the task of drafting of the Constitution is still to be completed.

The current extension became possible only after a five-point agreement among the three largest political parties in the CA – the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). The agreement includes the following:

  • Completion of fundamentals of the peace process within three months

  • Preparation of the first draft of the new Constitution within three months

  • Implementation of past agreements with the Madheshi Morcha by developing the Nepal Army as an inclusive institution

  • Extension of the Constituent Assembly term by three months

  • Prime Minister (PM) Jhalanath Khanal's resignation to pave way for formation of a national consensus Government

Later, on May 30, UCPN-M chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda stated that the extended three-month period of the CA was the “biggest test” for the political parties and people, and observed, “But we averted a big accident that was about to happen in the nation.” However, the divided political spectrum of the country, compounded by a worsening security situation, suggests that, though the ‘accident has been averted’, there is no end to such conditions arising again in days to come.

To start with, even the implementation of five-point agreement will be a real hurdle. While, the fourth condition has already been fulfilled, none of the other conditions are likely to be met within the stipulated time frame as there is no majority consensus for any of the points to be implemented. The formation of a national consensus Government can only prove to be a real ordeal. During first extension of the CA’s term  on May 28, 2010, the leaders of these three large parties had struck a deal according to which then Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal was to tender his resignation ‘at an appropriate time’ to pave the way for the formation of a ‘consensus Government’. Nepal took seven months to find an ‘appropriate time’ for his resignation, and the national consensus Government remained a chimera.

Crucially, major contentious issues continue to trouble the political class, blocking the drafting of the Constitution and the resolution of major differences. Despite the Maoists agreement in principal to the Nepal Army’s model of integration of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cadres, sharp division among parties remain on the number of Maoists to be integrated. Reports indicate that, while the Maoists are now demanding the integration of some 7,000 PLA combatants, the NC and other political parties are adamant upon limiting the maximum number to 5,000. Significantly, more than 19,000 Maoist ‘combatants’ staying in seven major and 21 satellite camps across the country are awaiting integration or rehabilitation, though allegations regarding the inclusion of a large number of ineligible persons are widespread.

The surrender of arms by the Maoists is another bone of contention. Despite all the political parties urging the Maoists to give up arms, the Maoists remain wary. On May 27, 2011, Dahal, ruling out the surrender of PLA weapons to the state authority, noted that the process would be "illogical and immature". “We won’t surrender. If needed we are ready to become martyrs instead,” he declared. However, on June 4, Barshaman Pun, member of the Special Committee for Supervision, Integration and Rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, disclosed, "We have begun collecting weapons and have kept them at the Nayabazaar-based residence of Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' and the process of returning PLA security personnel to their respective camps will begin from Sunday [June 5]."

Endorsement of the Constitution by a two-thirds majority is another hopeless talk under the prevailing circumstances. Barring, Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Nepal (MJF-N), which is a part of the ruling alliance, all other Madhesh based parties, along with NC, have said they will not accept a Constitution promulgated by a two-thirds majority, while the Maoists and CPN-UML are pushing for this outcome. These parties are insisting on promulgation of the Constitution by consensus alone.

Evidently, continuing inter-party rivalry remains a major obstacle. Worse, there has been a significant rise in intra-party rivalry as well. The Maoists appear to be a progressively divided house. The faction led by Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya has disowned the five-point agreement, declaring that the pact was against the party’s official policy, endorsed by the Central Committee (CC). The political report presented by Baidya in the CC meeting that concluded on April 30 noted, “The People’s Constitution writing process and Army Integration should go hand in hand and the present Government should be continued.” Similar divisions are evident among the leaders of the CPN-UML. Pradip Nepal, Politburo member of the party claimed, on May 11, that the Prime Minister had become “half Maoist” already. Further, senior CPN-UML leader K. P. Oli accused both Khanal and Prachanda of running the show in the country by hatching conspiracies.

Chaotic political conditions have contributed to a deteriorating security scenario. Regular reports of clashes among the cadres of the different political parties have been received. In a recent incident, a group of 60 UCPN-M cadres from the Chulachuli-based PLA First Division Camp of Ilam attacked local people in Kamal Jhoda, injuring at least 12, and ‘capturing’ five others in the night of May 16, 2011. The NC claimed that the people attacked and ‘captured’ were its party cadres. Moreover, normal life is repeatedly paralyzed due to near-continuous shutdowns imposed by various political as well as armed outfits. While the whole of Terai is simmering, the capital, Kathmandu, is also in the line of fire. Significantly, on April 7, Police arrested five senior cadres of the Communist Party of Nepal (People's Revolutionary), an underground armed group, from Baluwatar in Kathmandu and Jagati in Bhaktapur District. Police disclosed that the arrested persons were holding a meeting and making plans to bomb several places in the Kathmandu Valley.

Nevertheless, there have been several positive developments in the recent past, as well. The sub-committee, headed by Prachanda, formed under the Constitutional Committee, on May 19, 2011, resolved eight disputes surrounding the draft Constitution, including its name. A meeting of the Sub-committee decided to name the statute the 'Constitution of Nepal'. There had been six disputes over the name. The Sub-committee also decided to forgo any mention of the Maoist combatants vis-a-vis the peace process in the Constitution. Similarly, the panel also decided to incorporate the clauses of fundamental rights within the Directive Principles of the State. Again on May 20, the Sub-committee agreed not to include the provision of compulsory military training to citizens above 18 years of age in the new Constitution. The sub-committee is yet to resolve another 21 disputes, including the system of governance, restructuring of the state, and the electoral system.

Further, on May 28, despite strong reservations from the Madhesh-based parties, the UCPN-M, NC and CPN-UML agreed, for the second time, to form a high-level State Restructuring Commission. The Commission, which will comprise of experts picked by the parties, is expected to recommend a viable model and number of federal provinces to be established in the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal.  Later, on May 31, these parties, informally agreed on two other issues — ending dual security, by the State and the PLA, being provided to Maoist leaders ‘within a week’ and issuing a progress report or ‘white paper’ incorporating all contentious issues pertaining to the Constitution drafting process. The ‘white paper’ will be unveiled in the CA, CPN-UML leader Pradeep Gyawali disclosed. Significantly, on June 5, UCPN-M formally began the process of sending PLA combatants deployed for the security of Maoist leaders to the cantonments. 48 PLA combatants were deployed for the security of different Maoist leaders under the leadership of ‘division commander’ Santu Darai.

Speaking of these developments on May 25, UCPN-M leader Dahal noted that there was a wrong impression among the people that the ongoing Constitution drafting and peace processes were not moving forward, but the fact was that more than 250 disputed issues had been reduced to a mere 21. The ability of the political parties to effectively monitor the peace process after UNMIN's departure and the PLA being brought under the jurisdiction of the Army Integration Special Committee have demonstrated notable achievements and progress in the peace process. Similarly, Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal, in his televised address to the nation on May 31, observed that the parties had already finalized several pending issues concerning the new Constitution and that ‘something significant’ could be expected in the peace process in a few weeks time. In another major development, it has been announced that Nepal will be declared a mine-free country by mid-June.

Despite these positives, uncertainty continues to loom large in this nascent Himalayan democracy. The big question is, what would happen if the Maoists came to lead the Government? The CPN-UML CC meeting on June 2, 2011, declared, “Our plan is that the national unity Government will be installed by June 29 and the UCPN-M will lead that Government.”

Given the Maoists track record in Government, their restoration to power may, once again, prove to be a polarizing factor. The Ministry of Home Affairs, currently headed by Maoist Krishna Bahadur Mahara, has been working at full swing to withdraw criminal cases against Maoist cadres charged with various offences — including serious crimes dating back to the period of insurgency. According to senior Home Ministry officials, Mahara has been asking them to expedite compilation of a list of cases registered against Maoist cadres from courts across the country. This is not the first time that the Maoist leadership has tried to get their party workers off the hook. In October 2008, the Maoist-led Government withdrew 349 criminal cases against its cadres, according to official records.

Tremendous gains have certainly been secured since the bloodshed of the insurgency ended, and the absolute decline in political violence in the country is one of the most significant among these. Residual difficulties remain, of course, and there is a lingering danger that extremists in one political formation or another will be tempted to slide into another sanguinary adventure. Despite the enormous political difficulties that persist, and the absence of coherent governance over vast areas of the country, however, the flexibility and accommodation of divergent political parties in Nepal, and the persistence of the peace process, continues to surprise many. Nepal remains troubled, unstable, and sometimes violent, but a fledgling democracy appears to be taking root, and no political party has any presently overriding interest in jeopardizing this.

PAKISTAN
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No Country for Freedom
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Pakistan’s media history bears the scars of extreme intolerance at the hands the country’s mullah-military combine and the state. Amidst the ongoing violence purportedly to avenge Osama bin Laden’s killing, the brutal murder of Asia Times Online Pakistan Bureau Chief, Syed Saleem Shahzad, on June 1, 2011, in the Mandi Bahauddin District of Punjab province, about 75 miles south of Islamabad, represents only the latest assault in the ‘war against freedom’ that has been ongoing since the moment of this Islamic Republic’s troubled birth.

Speculation is rife that Shahzad’s killing was the handiwork of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and a credible narrative buttressing such a position has been established. Shahzad was abducted on May 29, after he exposed links between al Qaeda, a group of Naval personnel and the ISI in the attack at the Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Mehran within Faisal Naval Airbase in Karachi. The terrorist strike on May 22 killed 10 Security Force (SF) personnel. Shahzad had also published a report in October 2010 about the arrest and subsequent release of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Baradar. According to that report, Pakistani authorities, with the help of United States (US), had arrested Baradar in Karachi in February 2010, and then released him on October 16, 2010. Shahzad was later called and questioned by the ISI.

Hameed Haroon, President of the All Pakistan Newspapers Society has written, on June 4, 2011,

I wish to State on the record for the information of the officers involved in investigating journalist Saleem Shahzad's gruesome murder that the late journalist confided to me and several others that he had received death threats from various officers of the ISI on at least three occasions in the past five years... The last threat which I refer to was recorded by Mr Shahzad by email with me, tersely phrased as "for the record", at precisely 4:11am on October 18, 2010, wherein he recounted the details of his meetings at the ISI headquarters in Islamabad between the director general-media wing (ISI), Rear-Admiral Adnan Nazir, with the deputy director general of the media wing, Commodore Khalid Pervaiz, also being present.

Notably, soon after Baradar’s release, Shahzad sent an e-mail to the editor of Asia Times Online, Tony Allison, and to Human Rights Watch (HRW) Researcher, Ali Dayan, expressing fears that he would be eliminated by the intelligence agency.

Shahzad’s recently published book, Inside al Qaeda and the Taliban: Beyond Bin Laden and 9/11, further exposed ISI-al Qaeda involvement in the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terrorist attacks (26/11). The book argued that the attack was scripted by ISI officers and approved for execution by al Qaeda ‘commanders’. Shahzad described the Mumbai plans as having been pushed through by Illyas Kashmiri, a key al Qaeda ally with wide links with the Pakistan defense establishment. [Kashmiri, one of the al Qaeda leaders tipped to succeed bin Laden, was killed in a US drone strike on June 3 at Wana Bazar in South Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)]. Shahzad clearly ‘knew too much’.

Confirming the ISI’s role in Shahzad’s abduction, torture and murder, HRW cited a “reliable interlocutor” who claimed that Shahzad had been abducted by the ISI on May 29. Reports indicate that Shahzad’s family had contacted ISI officials after his ‘disappearance’, and had been assured that he would be released ‘shortly’. Instead, his body, with marks of torture, was recovered from a canal on June 1. Shahzad’s killing, Ali Dayan of HRW notes, “bears the hallmarks of previous killings perpetrated by the Pakistan Intelligence Agencies,” adding, “It is quite clear by his own account and from his reports that they [ISI] were deeply unhappy with his reporting.”

Unsurprisingly, accusing media of acting irresponsibly an unnamed ISI official stated that “some sections of the media have taken upon themselves to use the incident for targeting and maligning the ISI.” The ISI defence was backed by a statement from Interior Minister Rehman Malik that, “Saleem Shahzad’s murder could be a case of personal enmity”, though no evidence was provided in support of this claim, nor was any attempt made to explain the circumstances of Shahzad’s disappearance and death. Further, several journalists who reacted to Shahzad’s killing, have now disclosed that they were receiving ‘warnings’ from the Army and the ISI.

Shahzad’s disclosures regarding the arrest of a group of radicalized Naval personnel at the Mehran Naval Base find some confirmation in a WikiLeaks cable, dated March 2006, which quotes the then Deputy Chief of Air Staff for Operations, Air Vice Marshal (AVM) Khalid Chaudhry as stating, “You can’t imagine what a hard time we have trying to get them to trim their beards,” hinting at the penetration of extremist clerics and militants into the country’s security establishment.

Shahzad’s murder is only the most recent instance of the sustained effort to throttle a surprisingly vigorous fourth estate in Pakistan. According to the International News Safety Institute (INSI), Pakistan is among the deadliest countries for journalists, with 16 deaths reported in the year 2010. The threat to journalists arises is particularly focused on investigations against the most influential groups in the country – the Army, the ISI and its extremist protégés. At least 73 journalists have been killed in Pakistan since 2000, and 439 have been arrested or abducted.

Attack on Media: 2000-2011

Years
Killed
Assault/ Injured
Arrested/ abducted
Intimidated

Banned /Barred / Censored

Damage to Property
2000
5
14
10
24
6
6
2001
2
2
5
3
4
2
2002
1
37
10
13
8
2
2003
2
7
4
17
2
1
2004
2
2
8
17
3
2
2005
3
7
13
18
28
3
2006
5
31
12
22
15
9
2007
11
215
325
79
43
16
2008
13
74
40
118
20
4
2009
10
70
10
28
35
10
2010
16
10
1
03
0
2
2011*
3
0
1
1
0
NA
Total
73
474
439
344
164
57
Source: 2000-2010: Intermedia
**Data till June 5, 2011: South Asia Terrorism Portal

The most prominent killings of the recent past include:

May 10, 2011: Nasrullah Khan Afridi, the President of Tribal Union of journalists, was killed when his car was blown up in Khyber Supermarket of the Cantonment area in Peshawar. Afridi had been receiving threatening calls from militants, suspected to be the cadres of Lashkar-e-Islam (LI). He had complained that local officials failed to provide security despite repeated requests.

January 13, 2011: A journalist, identified as Wali Khan Babar, was shot dead in Liaquatabad area of Karachi after reporting on violence in the city. 

September 14, 2010: Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants shot dead a senior journalist, Misri Khan Orakzai, in front of the Hangu Press Club building in Hangu Bazaar, Hangu District, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

May 10, 2010: A local journalist, Ghulam Rasool Birhamani, was killed in Wahipandhi village of Sindh.

Addressing media organisation over the phone on August 2, 2010, in the North Waziristan Agency of the FATA, the then TTP spokesman Azam Tariq warned journalists that the “pro-America” media was spreading false information about the Taliban and told journalists to be ‘impartial’ in their profession. “The media should avoid creating rifts in the ranks of the Mujahedeen who are fighting a holy war,” he said. His threats extended to include the Government of Pakistan, who he accused of protecting NATO interests in the region. Tariq vowed, “The TTP would continue its resistance against such forces until the Pakistan Government parted ways with the US led NATO forces." Earlier, on January 10, 2010, the National Crisis Management Cell of the Interior Ministry of Pakistan had disclosed that TTP had decided to attack newspaper offices and renowned journalists across the country. 

The assault on freedom is not restricted to the media alone. Indeed, persistent negligence and, in at least some cases, probable complicity, on the part of state authorities has led to a situation where no intellectual or progressive voice can speak out without risk of extreme retaliation from one or the other of Pakistan’s violent constituencies. Thus, on January 4, 2011, Punjab Governor Salman Taseer was killed by his own radicalised bodyguard Malik Mumtaz Qadri for defending a Christian woman Asia Bibi, who had been accused of blasphemy against the Prophet. On December 4, 2010, an extremist Deobandi mullah, Maulana Yousuf Qureshi, a senior member of the Jama’at-e-(Ghair) Islami (a movement with an anti-secular and anti-democracy agenda), known to have direct links with a local commander of the Pakistan Army, declared, at Peshawar, “If the Government does not hang Asia Bibi, then my mosque will offer a reward of PNR 500,000 to anyone who kills her… No President, no Parliament and no Government has any right to interfere in the commandants of Islam. Islamic punishment will be implemented at all costs.” No action was taken against Qureshi for his call to murder.

On March 2, 2011, Federal Minister for Minorities’ Affairs, Shahbaz Bhatti was killed by militants of Fidayeen-e-Muhammad, a TTP faction, and al Qaeda Punjab Chapter, for his opposition to the country’s blasphemy laws Bhatti’s killing was also one among many incidents of minority persecution. It is through the infamous anti-blasphemy laws that hardline clerics persecute minorities, often by baseless accusations of having offended Islam.

The religious hardliners have also silenced another emerging voice against the blasphemy laws, in this case, through the state itself. Member of the National Assembly, Sherry Rehman, who had proposed an Amendment to the Law, was forced to withdraw her Bill by the ruling Pakistan People’s Party, of which she is a member, in the wake of the Taseer killing. She now lives in self-imposed isolation at her home in Karachi, after receiving death threats from the religious extremists, who have openly named her in their rallies in Karachi. After Taseer and Bhatti, she is now the top target on the terrorist hit list. The Aram Bagh mosque in Karachi hung out a Jama’at-e-Islami (JI) banner that read “Death to those who conspire against the blasphemy laws.” Clerics constantly demand an immediate withdrawal of any anti-blasphemy law initiatives, and the Sherry Rehman case indicates that the Government is inclined to appease the extremists, emboldening them even further.

According to data collected by Pakistan’s National Commission for Justice and Peace (NCJP), at least 964 persons have been charged under anti-blasphemy clauses between 1986 and August 2009. Moreover, at least 30 persons accused under these provisions have been killed extra-judicially by mobs or individuals. At least 64 people, including Aasia Bibi, were charged under the blasphemy law   in 2010, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) 2010 report states. Three men, including two Christian brothers, accused of blasphemy, have been killed in Police custody. The law has extraordinarily perverse clauses that make the mere testimony of two Muslims, with no corroborative evidence, sufficient grounds for conviction – and a mandatory death sentence. In several case in the past, it has been found that complaints under the law have, in fact, been preceded by personal and property disputes, and that the law has been repeatedly and cynically abused.

The killing of two prominent liberals in Pakistan’s power structure, the suppression of others, and the enveloping context of intimidation and terror – both by state and not state agencies – has repeatedly exposed an easy partnership between Islamist extremists and their defenders within the political-military establishment. The killing of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, was a crucial case in point. Indeed, former President Pervez Musharraf was indicted on February 12, 2011, for his involvement in the Bhutto assassination. Bhutto had repeatedly demanded enhanced protection during her election campaign, especially after the October 18, 2007, assassination attempt by suicide bombing, in which at least 139 persons were killed. Investigators have concluded that Musharraf was directly responsible for the decision to provide insufficient protection to Bhutto, despite the constant threats and earlier attempt, as well as intelligence inputs suggesting extreme risk. Musharraf, of course, has denied responsibility, and continues to blame TTP for both the attacks. Government prosecutors, however, now allege that Musharraf was a part of the plot. The lead prosecutor, Zulfiqar Ali Chaudhry, has argued, “The probe has evidence that Musharraf was completely involved through Baitullah Mehsud, the killed TTP leader (sic).”  On May 30, 2011, a Pakistan Anti-Terrorism Court declared Musharraf a ‘proclaimed offender’ or fugitive for failing to cooperate with investigators probing the case.

‘Disappearances’ and ‘target killings’ of dissidents have become routine in areas of conflict across the country – and most commentators have linked an overwhelming proportion of these to the Army and its secret agencies. Among numerous incidents, Professor Saba Dashtiyari, a senior faculty member of the University of Balochistan, was shot dead by ‘unidentified assailants’ on June 1, 2011. Initial reports on the ongoing investigations suggest that Dashtiyari was a Baloch nationalist and held views directly opposed to the Islamabad establishment and was deeply critical of the Army’s role in the Province, specifically criticizing the torture and disappearance of Baloch nationalists. Dashtiyari is only the most recent in a long chain of ‘mysterious’ deaths generally attributed to the ‘agencies’. According to the HRCP 2010 report, a total of 998 persons have gone missing in Balochistan, most of them allegedly abducted by Government agencies.

Among the ‘minorities’, the Ahmadiyas, have been particularly targeted for violent discrimination by state and majority extremist formations. The Ahmadiyas constitute 0.23 percent of the population and are treated as heretics in Pakistan and denied the right to refer to themselves as Muslims, or to propagate their beliefs, since 1974. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto – perhaps Pakistan’s most celebrated ‘secular’ leader – declared the Ahmadis apostates by law. According to the HRCP 2010 report, 99 Ahmadis were killed in faith-based violence during the year. Impunity for perpetrators of violence against minority communities is assured, and no significant investigations or prosecutions ever ensue after such incidents. It is significant that Pakistan has seen a continuous decline in the population of non-Muslims in the country, which now stands at under 3 per cent.

A US report on April 8, 2011, noted that Pakistan had not held anyone accountable for a 2009 incident in which men in military uniforms shot dead six young men, who were lined up and blindfolded with hands behind their backs in Swat District. “A failure to credibly investigate allegations, impose disciplinary or accountability measures and consistently prosecute those responsible for abuses contributed to a culture of impunity,” the report said. 

There have also been numberless instances of the Government shutting down private television channels or blocking certain media outlets from broadcasting, arresting, beating or intimidating – directly or through extremist and criminal proxies – journalists and members of their families, leading many to practice extreme self-censorship.

While Islamist extremism has secured unprecedented penetration into the establishment in Pakistan, including the Army and its agencies, over the past years, these trends are far from new, and go back to the very hour of the creation of Pakistan. On August 11, 1947, Liaqat Ali Khan and his associates tried to black out passages of Qaid-e-Azam (Great Leader) Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s speech to the Constituent Assembly. On this cornerstone of distortion, successive regimes – civil and military – have built an edifice of repression that is now enforced by an intimate alliance of Islamist extremists, radicalized and opportunistic political parties, and the country’s dominant power, the Army and its agencies. Over these decades, the spaces for freedom in Pakistan have progressively diminished to a point where they can now be accessed only at risk of death.



NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
May 30-June 5, 2011

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

  

Assam

0
0
2
2

Jammu & Kashmir

0
0
4
4

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Left-wing Extremism

  

Bihar

1
0
0
1

Chhattisgarh

0
1
0
1

Jharkhand

1
0
3
4

West Bengal

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

3
1
10
14

PAKISTAN

  

Balochistan

7
0
0
7

FATA

1
0
30
31

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

29
35
72
136

Punjab

1
0
0
1

Sindh

5
2
0
7

Total (PAKISTAN)

43
37
102
182
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.



BANGLADESH


Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in favour of retaining Islam as State religion: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on May 31 expressed herself in favour of retaining Islam as the State religion. Taking a departure from the 1972 Constitution, Hasina said that the Arabic phrase "Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim" ("In the name of Allah, the Most Merciful,, the Most Compassionate") will remain above the Preamble of the Constitution. Daily Star, June 1, 2011.


INDIA


Gaddafi could be sponsoring anti-India militant outfit SSP, reveal Wikileaks: A newly-released WikiLeaks cable revealed that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi could be financing a Pakistan-based anti-India militant outfit, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP). The cable, which is based on information received from a Deobandi scholar and a "long-standing" contact of the US consulate in Lahore, said SSP leader Mulana Ludhianvi travelled to Libya on a fundraising trip sponsored by the Libyan government. Times of India, June 2, 2011.

NPF launches local unit in Manipur: Naga Peoples' Front (NPF) launched its party unit at Senapati town in Manipur on May 28. Thousands of Southern Nagas from the four hills Districts of Senapati, Ukhrul, Tamenlong and Chandel congregated at public ground, Senapati, to witness the flag hoisting and declaration programme of the NPF Manipur unit. The NPF made a declaration that "integration" of Nagas is a birth right that cannot be negotiated at any cost. Sentinel, June 1, 2011.

'Inactive' Maoists now working under Telangana banner in Andhra Pradesh, claim security agencies: The Special Intelligence Branch (SIB) of Andhra Pradesh Police, which monitors activities of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, has reportedly gathered "credible information" about the Maoists carrying their activities under the banner of the virtually-defunct Telangana Political Joint Action Committee (JAC). According to report, several "inactive" Maoists have suddenly started participating in the political JAC on the Statehood issue. Hindustan Times, May 31, 2011.

Dialogue with insurgent groups helped bringing down violence level in North-Eastern region, says Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram: Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram on June 1 said that beginning of dialogue with insurgent groups in the North-Eastern region helped to bring down the level of violence in that part of the country. Chidambaram said that two of the insurgent groups are expected to sign an agreement with the Centre in a couple of months and National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) will present its document to the Government for discussions soon. Kanglaonline, June 2, 2011.


NEPAL

OHCHR term extended by six months: The Government on June 1 extended the term of Office of the United Nations Human Rights Commissioner in Nepal (OHCHR-N) by another six months with the same mandate. Its present mandate is ending on June 9. The OHCHR and the western countries, including the USA and the European countries, had been lobbying for one year extension. Nepal News, June 2, 2011.

Government is trying to reach out to armed groups, says Peace Minister Bishwonath Sah: Peace Minister Bishwonath Sah on June 2 said the Government is going to send letters to armed groups operating in Terai and eastern hills, asking them to come to the negotiating table. Sah said the talks with the armed groups were not fruitful and claimed that the talks this time will be decisive. Nepal News, June 3, 2011.


PAKISTAN

72 militants and 35 SFs among 136 persons killed during the week in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: At least 19 people were killed and 45 others injured when a suicide bomber attacked an Army-run bakery on the Mall Road in Nowshera Cantonment area of Nowshera District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the night of June 5. In addition, six persons were killed and another 11 injured when a bomb ripped through a passenger vehicle parked at a bus terminal near a market in Matani, about 20 kilometres (12 miles) south of Peshawar.

The Security Forces (SFs) killed 26 Afghan Taliban militants on June 4 in the fourth day of fighting in the Upper Dir District, close to the Afghan border.

At least 27 SFs personnel were killed as Afghan Taliban attack Shaltalo security post in the Upper Dir District, close to the Afghan border, on June 2. 45 militants were also killed in the clash that followed. Three civilians were also killed during the clash.

Seven SF personnel were killed when Taliban militants from Afghanistan's Kunar province attacked and overran Shaltalo security checkpost jointly manned by Frontier Corps and Dir Levies in Berawal area of Upper Dir District, close to the Afghan border, on June 1. Dawn; Daily Times; The News; Tribune, May 31-June 6, 2011.

30 militants among 31 persons killed during the week in FATA: A US drone missile strike targeting a compound on June 3 killed nine militants, including top al Qaeda leader and chief of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Ilyas Kashmiri, in Ghwakhwa area, 10 kilometres west of Wana, the main town of South Waziristan Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on June 3.

Pakistani warplanes attacked Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Mirkalam Khel and Akhon Kot areas of the north western Orakzai Agency in FATA on May 31 killing 18 terrorists. Dawn; Daily Times; The News; Tribune, May 31-June 6, 2011.

HuJI chief Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri killed in US drone strike in FATA: Top al Qaeda leader and 'head' of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Ilyas Kashmiri, was killed in a US drone strike in Wana Bazaar area of South Waziristan Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) at 11:15 pm on June 3. A hand-written brief statement in Urdu-language from a 'spokesman' of the HuJI, Abu Hamzullah Kasher, distributed in Wana Bazaar on June 4 afternoon, confirmed that Kashmiri was killed. "Harkatul Jihad al-Islami's 313 Brigade confirms that in Friday's drone attack at 11:15pm our 'commander-in-chief', Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri, was martyred," the spokesman, Abu Hamzullah Kasher said in the statement. On June 5, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik Malik was quoted by Reuters as saying, "What I can say is there is a 98 per cent chance he is dead. Since we do not have the body, we do not have DNA we need to confirm. This is the substantive evidence we are looking for." Daily Times; The Hindu, June 5-6, 2011.

Pakistani intelligence agencies uncover plot to assassinate President Asif Ali Zardari: Pakistani intelligence agencies have uncovered a plot to assassinate President Asif Ali Zardari and arrested several persons. The agencies conducted raids over the past few weeks in Islamabad and Punjab and arrested up to 42 persons, the report said. Times of India, June 6, 2011.

Bomb Disposal Squad averts one fourth of terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, says Squad's Additional Inspector General Shafqat Malik: Additional Inspector General (AIG) of Bomb Disposal Squad (BDS), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Shafqat Malik, said on June 2 that provincial BDS officials had diffused 317 improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the current year and foiled 25 per cent of terror acts in the province. AIG Malik said that 25 per cent of terror attempts were foiled in the provincial capital by diffusing bombs, suicide jackets, fuses and other explosive material. Dawn, June 3, 2011.

New al Qaeda video urges individual Jihad: Al Qaeda has released a two-part 100-minute video apparently produced after the death of Osama bin Laden that calls for individual acts of jihad (Holy war) on "enemy soil," a US-based monitoring service SITE said on June 3. Among the several speakers are Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's long-time number two to bin Laden, and American-born Adam Gadahn, who says that Muslims living in the West are "perfectly placed to play an important and decisive part in the jihad against the Zionists and Crusaders." Dawn, June 4, 2011.

LeT continues to plan attacks from Pakistan, says US Government Accountability Office report: Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), an "extremely capable" terror group with a sophisticated regional network continues to plan its operations from within Pakistan, a US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report said on June 4, warning that militant safe havens inside that country pose greatest threat to American national security. The GAO said al Qaeda and other groups such as the Haqqani network used the FATA to launch attacks in Afghanistan, plan operations worldwide, train, recruit and disseminate propaganda.

Earlier on June 3, US Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano said, "LeT is a potent terrorist organisation. It could be construed as a threat to the United States. It certainly is to India." Indian Express; Daily Times, June 4-6, 2011.

ISI scripted Mumbai attack and al Qaeda cleared it, reveals slain Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad's book: According to a book written by slain Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad the Novemnber 26, 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks (also known as 26/11) was scripted by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers and approved before it was cleared by al Qaeda 'commanders'. The book titled 'Inside Al-Qaeda and the Taliban beyond bin Laden and 9/11' describes the Mumbai plan as one pushed through by Ilyas Kashmiri, a key al Qaeda ally with wide links with the Pakistan defence establishment. Shahzad says in the book that the plan was authored by the ISI officers and embraced and executed by Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Times of India, June 2, 2011.

ISI linked with militants, reveals US State Department cable: A diplomatic cable sent under the name of United States (US) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton states that despite public disavowals, "some officials of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate continue to maintain ties with a wide array of extremist organizations," in particular the Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). The cable, dated December 30, 2009 was sent to five US Embassies, including that of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The Hindu, June 1, 2011.

One of the five Pakistan-based militant groups specifically targets India, reveal US report: Pakistan is home to a large number of militant outfits and can be broadly divided into five groups, one of which specifically targets India and Kashmir that gets the maximum support from the establishment, a United States (US) Congressional report on May31 said. India and Kashmir-oriented militants, especially the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Harakat ul-Mujahideen (HuM), are based in both the Punjab province and in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). The report said that the Islamist militant groups operating in and from Pakistan territory are of five broad types, namely, globally oriented militants, Afghanistan-oriented militants, India- and Kashmir-oriented militants, sectarian militants, and domestically oriented militants. Indian Express, June 1, 2011.

Plan for operation in North Waziristan finalised, says US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen: The United Sates (US) Joint Chiefs Of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen on May 30 said that the Pakistani Government would launch a major offensive on militants in North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). "It's a very important fight and a very important operation," the US Joint Chiefs of Staff told a television network. Daily Times, May 31, 2011.

Government is not fond of military action in North Waziristan, says Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani: The Government is not fond of military action and wants to have an exit strategy, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said on June 1. The Government, he said, was not taking dictation from anybody, "but it will take action when its writ is challenged [in North Waziristan]". "We will decide if there is any need for [an operation in North Waziristan.] We will not meddle unnecessarily," the premier said.

On the same day, Lieutenant General Asif Yasin Malik , commander of the 11th Corps based in Peshawar, ruled out an imminent offensive in North Waziristan, contradicting a newspaper report that Pakistan had agreed to assault North Waziristan following pressure from the United States. Maliksaid there was no change in his forces' posture in the last weeks. Tribune; Daily Times, June 2, 2011.

Government raises Defence budget by 11.4%: The Federal Government has raised the defence budget by 11.36 percent by allocating PKR 495 billion for the country's three Armed Forces in the upcoming financial year 2011-12 against the upward revised budget of PKR 444.495 billion in the outgoing fiscal year ending June 30. The Government had been requested by the armed forces to make an allocation of PKR 582 billion. Daily Times , June 4, 2011.

ATC declares former President Pervez Musharraf a "proclaimed offender" in former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's murder case: Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) on May 30 declared former President General Pervez Musharraf a "proclaimed offender" in the December 2007 assassination case of Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The court had issued an arrest warrant of Musharraf in February 2011 after Federal Investigation Agency investigators declared him an "absconder". Daily Times, May 31, 2011.

US should delay Pakistan's aid, says Centre for Global Development report: The United States should delay much of its multibillion-dollar package to Pakistan pending economic reforms as the aid has led to official inaction and public resentment, said Centre for Global Development study. The report comes as more US lawmakers question aid to Pakistan after US forces discovered and killed Osama bin Laden. Daily Times, June 2, 2011.


SRI LANKA

Rehabilitation and reintegration of ex-LTTE combatants successful, says Sri Lankan Diplomat: Addressing the plenary session of the 17th session of United Nations Human Right Council on Protection and promotion of Women in Geneva on June 3, Sri Lanka's envoy Sugeeshwara Gunaratna said that the Sri Lankan Government had successfully rehabilitated and reintegrated ex-combatants of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). "All female ex-combatants who were beneficiaries of this program have now been released and are back with their families," he added. Colombo Page, June 4, 2011.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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