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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 10, No. 50, June 18, 2012
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Unleashing
the Dogs of War
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
The confrontation
that we are calling for with the apostate regimes
does not know Socratic debates... Platonic ideals...
or Aristotelian diplomacy. But it knows the dialogue
of bullets, the ideals of assassination, bombing
and destruction, and the diplomacy of the cannon
and machine gun.
Islamic Governments
have never and will never be established through
peaceful solutions and cooperative councils. They
are established as they [always] have been by
pen and gun; by word and bullet, by tongue and
teeth.
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The al
Qaeda manual details its ‘humble commands’
to a generation of Muslim youth fighting for “Allah’s
cause” of a jihadist victory over the West, apostates
and godless regimes.
In its
latest ‘humble command’ al Qaeda has declared a jihad
against the Pakistan Army, justifying it as a war against
a Force that sides with the United States (US) – the enemy
of Islam. According to June 14, 2012 reports, Pakistan’s
leading Intelligence agencies, including Military Intelligence,
alerted the Interior Ministry that al Qaeda now plans
terrorist attacks targeting Security Forces (SFs), as
well as a range of soft targets in the big cities. Vital
installations in all the four Provinces, and in Pakistan
occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), have
been put on high alert, as the country gears up to confront
this fresh threat. A senior Intelligence officer reportedly
stated, "In order to accomplish their nefarious designs,
al Qaeda has prepared its strategy to target Pakistan
Army through terrorist attacks, assassination of senior
officers through targeted killings and executing Pakistan
Army personnel for collaborating with the US once US led
NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan."
This latest
development follows the June 4, 2012, killing of Abu Yahya
al-Libi, second in command to Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s
current chief, in a US drone strike in the Mir Ali area
of the North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The Long War Journal,
in an interview with two US Intelligence Officials who
were involved in targeting al Qaeda and other militants
in Pakistan, reported that the officials initially thought
al Libi was among the 15 militants killed in the Mir Ali
attack. Later, a Pakistani Intelligence official, while
talking to the media, asserted that his unit "intercepted
some conversations between militants" and that "they
were talking about the death of a 'sheikh'... who
is assumed to be al Libi”. Local Pakistanis in the Mir
Ali area claim that "militants" quickly cordoned
off the areas and conducted rescue operations. Some local
tribesmen said that al Libi was wounded and died at a
private hospital in the area. White House spokesman Jay
Carney, on June 6, 2012, stated: “Our government has been
able to confirm al-Libi’s death.”
Two websites,
Ansar and Alfidaa, linked to al Qaeda, however,
suggested, on June 10, 2012, that al Libi remains alive.
Al Libi
was “among al Qaeda's most experienced and versatile leaders.”
Terrorism expert Jarret Brachman, in 2009, described him
as "masterful at justifying savage acts of terrorism
with esoteric religious arguments". A new video featuring
al Libi was posted online soon after the June 10 announcement.
In the video, assumed to be recorded in November 2011,
al Libi denounced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as
a tyrant and urged the Syrian people to continue fighting,
and calls on fighters in Iraq, Jordan and Turkey “to rise
to help their brothers and sacrifice themselves for them.”
This is the basic idea on which the al Qaeda ideology
thrives: the call for a unified “Muslim Brotherhood” creates
a powerful imagery in the collective consciousness of
the community.
If al Libi’s
killing is a fact, it can be expected to provoke another
wave of revenge attacks, similar to those that followed
Osama bin Laden’s killing on May 1-2, 2011. Some of the
prominent revenge attacks executed by al Qaeda and its
affiliates after bin Laden’s killing included:
June 25,
2011: At least 10 Policemen were killed and another five
sustained injuries when two suicide bombers, one of them
a burqa-clad woman, blew themselves up inside a
Police Station in Kolachi Town of Dera Ismail Khan District
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The al Qaeda affiliated Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP)
claimed responsibility for the attack, declaring it was
partly in revenge for the US raid that killed al Qaeda
‘chief’ Osama bin Laden.
May 26,
2011: A suicide bomber blew up a car laden with explosives
at a checkpoint close to the Hangu Police Station and
the Hangu District Police Officer’s office in KP, killing
32 persons and injuring 60. TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan
claimed responsibility for the attack, stating, "Soon
you will see bigger attacks. Revenge for Osama can't be
satisfied just with small attacks."
May 22,
2011: At least 10 SF personnel and four TTP militants
were killed, and nine SF personnel were injured in an
attack by TTP on the Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Mehran,
within the Faisal Naval Airbase, Karachi. “Soon you will
see attacks against America and NATO countries, and our
first priorities in Europe will be France and Britain,”
deputy TTP leader Wali-ur-Rehman announced in a videotape
aired on Al Arabiya, adding, “We selected 10 targets to
avenge the death of bin Laden”, of which the siege of
the Pakistan Naval Base, PNS Mehran, was described as
the “first revenge operation”.
May 13,
2011: At least 90 people, including 73 Paramilitary Force
personnel and 17 civilians, were killed when twin suicide
bombers attacked Paramilitary personnel as they were about
to leave a Frontier Corps (FC) training centre in the
Shabqadar tehsil (revenue unit) in Charsadda District
in KP. TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan told the media,
"This was the first
revenge for Osama's martyrdom. Wait
for bigger attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan."
Similarly,
in 2007, after the Lal Masjid [Red Mosque] Operation
in July that year, al Qaeda had released a video with
the jihadi-Salafi al-Libi singing paeans to the
Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa “martyrs”. In the video titled,
Of the Masters of Martyrs, al Libi forcefully called
on Pakistanis to take up arms against the then Pakistani
President Pervez Musharraf, whom he called the "dirty
tyrant" and a pawn of the West. It is through videos
on al Qaeda’s media wing, as-Sahab, that ideologues
like al Libi gained visibility and credibility in jihadi
circles. It was al Libi’s call to take up arms against
the Pakistani Army that unleashed the endless internal
war that now consumes the state. The Lal Masjid operation
provoked the large scale violence within Pakistan, marking
the beginning of a sharp escalation in domestic terrorism
in the country. Before the Lal Masjid Operation, between
January 1, 2003, and June 30, 2007, there were total of
4,040 killings (1,966 civilians, 1,379 militants and 695
SFs) in terrorist-linked violence, overwhelmingly the
result of sectarian strife. After Lal Masjid, between
July 1, 2007, and June 17, 2012, a total of 37, 937terrorism
linked fatalities have been recorded (11,450 civilians,
22,710 militants and 3,777 SF).
Al Qaeda
in Pakistan presently operates under its new amir,
Farman Shiwari, who belongs to the Khugakhel sub-tribe
of Shinwaris, and hails from the Landikotal Subdivision
of the Khyber Agency in FATA. His appointment was announced
by al Qaeda’s Dawa wing, which stated, on April
29, 2012, that Shinwari was selected as head of the network
in Pakistan after consultations and approval of the top
al Qaeda leadership. The reason for his selection, the
statement added, was his close affiliation with slain
al Qaeda leader Badar Mansoor (who was killed in a US
drone attack on February 9, 2012) and his knowledge about
FATA.
Al Qaeda
and its franchises and allies, including TTP, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen
(HuM),
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
the Qari Zafar Faction, the Badr Mansoor Unit, and many
others, have a well established presence in Pakistan.
However, two of the 17
documents released by the US Government
on May 3, 2012, from the large cache seized during the
raid on Osama bin Laden's compound, suggest that al Qaeda
footprint in Pakistan may be much larger than hitherto
suspected. The letters are dated from September 2006 to
April 2011, a month before bin Laden’s killing. The declassified
documents reveal the internal correspondence within al
Qaeda across Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan. One
letter dated December 3, 2012 , between
al Qaeda leaders Shaykh Mahmud al-Hasan (`Atiyya Abdul
Rahman) and Abu Yahya al-Libi, on the one hand, and TTP
leader Hakimullah Mehsud, on the other, is a critique
of TTP tactics, offers guidelines and also provides a
glimpse of al Qaeda’s global reach. The extent of the
al Qaeda led Jihad, Mahmud and Libi declare, is
without any geographical limitations. Addressing their
“good brother” Hakimullah, Mahmud and Libi write:
We
have several important comments that cover the concept,
approach and behaviour of the TTP in Pakistan, which
we believe are passive behaviour and clear legal
and religious mistakes which might result in negative
deviation from the set path of the Jihadist Movement
in Pakistan, which are also contrary to the objectives
of Jihad and the efforts exerted by us...We want
to make it clear to you that we, the al Qaeda is
an Islamist Jihadist Organisation that is
not restricted to a country or race...
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Al Qaeda
claims to have a decentralised and multi-layered global
network. The letters seized are conversations and correspondence
between recognisable faces of various al Qaeda units,
and confirm al Qaeda’s global presence. The recipients
and authors include, Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, leader of
the Somali militant group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahidin;
American al-Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn; Nasir al-Wuhayshi
(Abu Basir), leader of the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); Anwar al-`Awlaqi, al Qaeda’s
American-Yemeni motivator and recruiter; and Hakimullah
Mehsud, leader of the TTP.
The current
threat gains greater potency with a strengthening of ties
between TTP, the Afghan
Taliban and al Qaeda. In a clandestine
meeting, al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban and TTP decided
to set aside their differences in order to assist each
other in their fight against the US and NATO Forces in
Afghanistan. On January 2, 2012, al Qaeda brokered a new
anti-US alliance in Pakistan and Afghanistan and created
a joint five member council, the Shura-e-Muraqba
(Council for Protection). A statement issued in the form
of a pamphlet in Waziristan, FATA, after the meeting,
declared, “All Mujahideen – local and foreigners – are
informed that all jihadi forces, in consultation
with Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, have unanimously
decided to form a five-member commission. It will be known
as Shura-e-Muraqba.” This new alliance has added
to al Qaeda’s existing capabilities, membership and facilities
located across Af-Pak region. Despite the killing of militant
“commanders” in the tribal areas of Pakistan and the continuous
US attacks within the region, these groups remain a potent
threat.
TTP spokesman
Ehsanullah Ehsan confirming the joining of Shura-e-Muraqba
told the media after the deal, “Yes, we signed an accord...to
avoid killing of innocent people and kidnapping for ransom,
but we did not agree with them to stop suicide attacks
and our fight against Pakistani Security Forces.” He added,
further, “for us, Pakistan is as important as Afghanistan
and, therefore, we cannot stop our activities here.”
The 17
declassified al Qaeda documents released by the US and
the subsequent revelations regarding the ‘alliance’ between
al Qaeda and various like-minded Pakistani groups confirm
the extent to which the al Qaeda and its virulent ideology
has become embedded within Pakistan. This constitutes
a direct threat, not only within Pakistan, but potentially
across the world, and there is little to suggest that
such a threat is likely to diminish in the foreseeable
future. The core of threat remains firmly located within
Pakistan, with the top al Qaeda leadership, including
its present chief, al Zawahiri, confirmed, on April 30,
2012, by John Brennan, US Deputy National Security Advisor,
to be ‘at large’ in Pakistan's tribal areas. More recently,
on May 7, 2012, US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton
reiterated, “There are several significant leaders still
on the run. Zawahiri is somewhere, we believe, in Pakistan."
Pakistan
continues to play the role of a ‘good host’ to a multiplicity
of Islamist terrorist groupings, prominently including
al Qaeda and its many affiliates, as well as various factions
of the Taliban operating in Afghanistan. As the US tinkers
with its ‘strategy’ of phased withdrawal from Afghanistan,
and seeks a ‘negotiated settlement’ with the ‘good Taliban’,
al Qaeda and its allies are preparing to unleash a storm
of violence across the region, one that will find resonances
across the world. And Pakistan will not be immune to the
savage blowback that, inevitably, will follow.
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ULFA-ATF:
Insignificant Force?
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
The Union
Ministry of Home Affairs (UHMA) continues to project
contradictory assessments of the Paresh Baruah-led Anti-talks
Faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF),
indicating an absence of strategic clarity in approach,
both to this group, and its breakaway Pro-talks Faction
(ULFA-PTF). Thus, on June 1, 2012, Union Home Secretary
R.K. Singh, dismissed the ULFA-ATF as an insignificant
group, arguing, “Paresh Baruah … ULFA anti-talk faction
is a small rump faction… insignificant. We will go without
him. One insignificant person going away does not matter.”
On the
other hand, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, had
observed, on April 30, 2012,
The
Home Secretary held the talks and he has reported
to me that it is making progress but it will be
slow progress because there is an anti-talk faction
[ULFA-ATF]. So the pro-talk [ULFA-PTF] leaders
are proceeding with great caution.
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Meanwhile,
recent developments indicate that, after the February
5, 2011, split, ULFA-ATF has begun to recover some ground
despite the loss of key ‘military commanders’ to ULFA-PTF,
as well as in operations against the Security Forces
(SFs). Hira Sarania erstwhile ‘commander’ of ULFA’s
“709th battalion” and Pallab Saikia, the
'27th battalion' commander”, are among the
‘military leaders’ who opted to go with ULFA-PTF. Other
top leaders from the ULFA’s armed units, including ULFA’s
‘deputy commander in chief’ Raju Baruah and leaders
from ULFA’s '28th battalion', Mrinal Hazarika,
Jiten Dutta [28th battalion-Alpha company
leader], and Prabal Neog, now occupy important positions
in the 35-member ULFA-PTF committee formed by Arabinda
Rajkhowa. Other top militants, including Gulit Das,
Haren Phukan and Phanindra Medhi alias Lebu,
who once handled all of Baruah's finances in Bangladesh,
have also been incorporated into the ULFA-PTF.
Further,
the SFs have arrested 85 cadres of ULFA-ATF. Palash
Hazarika alias Pawan Hazarika of the “28th
battalion”, and reportedly Paresh Baruah’s bodyguard,
surrendered before the SFs at Chetia Pathar in Chabua
in Dibrugarh District on July 5, 2011. 13 cadres of
the outfit, including three ‘corporals’ and one ‘lance
corporal’, have also surrendered. Earlier, on February
5, 2011, Bangladeshi SFs had handed over three mid level
militants - 'captain' Upen Buragohain alias Antu
Chaudung [reportedly one of Paresh Baruah’s closest
aides], 'second lieutenant' Pradip Chetia and ‘corporal’
Saurav – of the mother organization ULFA to the Border
Security Force (BSF). In 2009, Bangladeshi authorities
had arrested and handed over ‘Chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa,
‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Raju Baruah, ‘foreign secretary’
Shashadhar Choudhury and ‘finance secretary’ Chitrabon
Hazarika. ULFA ‘general secretary’ Anup Chetia is currently
lodged in a high security prison in Bangladesh.
Since
February 5, 2011, according to the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP)
database, ULFA-ATF has carried out as many as 14 blasts,
targeting installations such as the Railways, Police
Stations, Transmission Towers and markets. At least
three persons, including two ULFA-ATF militants and
a bomb carrier, have been killed in these attacks, and
dozens have been injured. The most prominent of these
attacks include:
May 25,
2012: A bomb suspected to be placed by ULFA-ATF went
off in the evening at Philobari under Doomdooma Police
Station in Tinsukia District. The bomb carrier, a young
boy, died on the spot. Businesspersons in Philobari
had allegedly been receiving extortion notices from
the ULFA-ATF.
March
4, 2012: ULFA-ATF exploded an Improvised Explosive Device
(IED) at Borpathar in Sivasagar District, damaging a
power transmission tower of Northeastern Electric Corporation
Limited (NEEPCO). The Police suspect ULFA-ATF had carried
out the blast to put pressure on the 'chairman' of the
ULFA-PTF, Arabinda Rajkhowa, who hails from the area.
November
20, 2011: Two ULFA-ATF militants were killed at Aouhatia
Sarangabam in Sivasagar District when they were a planting
bomb on railway tracks.
ULFA-ATF
cadres have also engaged in gunfights with the SFs,
with at least seven encounters reported. Five militants
were killed in these encounters, while one SF trooper
also lost his life. In the March 15, 2011, incident,
one Assam Police Sub-Inspector and two suspected ULFA
militants were killed during an encounter at Tongona
Majgaon, under the Kakopathar Police Station of Tinsukia
District.
ULFA-ATF
is also provoking widespread fear through extortion
notices and abductions, as an increasing desperation
attends its efforts to secure funds. A financial crunch
in the organization is evident, as it comes under SF
pressure in Assam, and as the loss of bases and safe
havens in Bangladesh takes its toll. While a majority
of extortion notices and incidents go unreported in
the media, at least 15 incidents have come on the record
since February 5, 2011. Prominently, on March 26-28,
2012, ULFA-ATF served an extortion notice over the phone
to the Food Corporation of India (FCI) office in North
Lakhimpur District. Earlier, on February 9, 2012, ULFA-ATF
demanded INR two million from the St. Luke's Hospital
at Chabua in Dibrugarh District. There is no further
information about these incidents. Reports indicate
that, in many cases, top leaders, including Paresh Baruah,
have called up businessperson to force compliance to
extortion demands. However, while a residual capacity
to extort money remains, the actual realization is reportedly
diminishing. An April 29, 2012, report claimed
that there have been instances where people have agreed
to pay up less than a fourth of the demanded amount,
even after receiving calls from Paresh Baruah. Significantly,
since February 5, 2011 SFs have arrested 85 militants
and linkman connected to the outfit, of which 28 were
arrested on extortion related charges.
ULFA-ATF
is presently led by its ‘acting vice-chairman’ and ‘commander-in-chief’
Paresh Baruah (57), based somewhere near the Sino-Myanmar
border. Its acting ‘chairman’ is Abhijeet Burman, and
the ‘central committee’ of the outfit includes ‘associate
general secretary’ and ‘finance secretary in-charge’
Jibon Moran, along with two ‘deputy commanders-in-chief’,
Dristi Rajkhowa and Bijoy Das. All present posts in
the ‘central committee’ have been declared to be temporary
in nature. Interestingly, Baruah has left the position
of ‘General Secretary’ vacant. ULFA-PTF leader Mrinal
Hazarika, in an interview to the media following
the formation of the temporary central committee of
ULFA-ATF observed, “Maybe Barua is waiting for Anup
Chetia’s return, since he himself cannot nominate a
permanent committee.” Anup Chetia alias Golap
Baruah, Paresh Baruah’s cousin and mentor, is currently
lodged in the high security Rajshahi Central Jail in
Bangladesh since the completion of his prison term in
January 2005[Anup Chetia was arrested in Dhaka on December
21, 1997 with two forged Bangladeshi passports]. Bangladesh’s
envoy to India, Tariq Ahmad Karim, on June 14, 2012,
disclosed, “India and Bangladesh are friendly neighbours
and India has been requesting Bangladesh to extradite
Anup Chetia, like other Indian terrorists, but he (Chetia)
has applied for political asylum and that takes legal
course of action.” He stressed that if Chetia had not
applied for political asylum, he would have been pushed
back into India long ago, like several other ULFA leaders.
ULFA-ATF
has, an estimated strength of 150-250 militants, mostly
new recruits, who are militarily organized into three
groups – Rongili (the cheerful lady), the biggest
formation, based in Myanmar; Lakhimi (the homely
lady) is a small group still in Bangladesh; and Kopili
(the speedy river), the new identity for the erstwhile
27th battalion, now temporarily based in
Majuli, the biggest riverine island on the river Brahmaputra,
located in Jorhat.
An operationally
decimated ULFA-ATF has also started to collaborate,
for its activities in lower Assam Districts of Kamrup
and Goalpara, with the Garo National Liberation Army
(GNLA),
a militant formation operating in the Garo Hills area
of Meghalaya. Dristi Rajkhowa leads the ULFA-ATF unit
operating in lower Assam. Senior Superintendent of Police
(Guwahati City), Apurba Jibon Baruah, elaborating on
the arrangement between the GNLA – ULFA-ATF noted, “According
to the pact, ULFA [ATF] will not harm the Garo people
living on the Assam side, while a group of 30-40 ULFA
cadres are taking shelter in GNLA camps in the West
Garo Hills District.” Indeed, their presence in the
Garo Hills area provides the ULFA-ATF with an escape
route to Bangladesh. Earlier, ULFA-ATF had reportedly
sought to establish a relationship with the Manipur-based
People’s Liberation army (PLA),
though the fate of the proposed alliance remains unknown.
ULFA-ATF
has also come out in support of Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist)
units operating in the upper Assam Districts, although
Baruah had initially viewed the movement with suspicion
and had reportedly given orders to his cadres for the
elimination of the Maoists. Significantly, on May 10,
2012, Baruah condemned the killing of four Maoist cadres
in an encounter in a remote village in Sadiya in Tinsukia
District on May 9, and extended ‘moral support’ to the
Maoists. Some financial calculus may also underpin this
reappraisal. The Maoists are reportedly ready to spend
INR two billion for arms and training of their cadres,
and Baruah is known to have emerged as one of the most
important traffickers of Chinese small arms in the region.
Further,
ULFA-ATF is among 14 militant groups of the Indian Northeast
that joined hand in March 2011, to float a United Front.
In addition to ULFA-ATF, the group includes the Nationalist
Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K),
the Manipur based PLA, United National Liberation Front
(UNLF),
three factions of the People’s Republican Party of Kangleipak
(PREPAK),
the Noyon group of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP-N),
Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT),
All Tripura Tigers’ Force (ATTF),
Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC),
GNLA, and a new unnamed group in Arunachal Pradesh.
In another
worrying development, the arrest of Anthony Shimray
of Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak -Muivah
(NSCN-IM)
on September 27, 2010, confirmed the fact that Paresh
Baruah had emerged as a major arms dealer between the
Yunnan-based China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO)
and various militant formations in India’s Northeast.
Baruah also maintains strong relations with the China-supported
United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Myanmar. UWSA was formed
in 1989, following the breakup of the Communist Party
of Burma (CPB). Notably, ULFA-ATF has, at least on two
occasions, expressed a Pro-China position in an effort
to maintain the support of this powerful neighbour.
On May
26, 2012, Assam’s Additional Director General of Police
(ADGP, Special Branch) Khagen Sarma claimed that Paresh
Baruah had procured an estimated 800 AK series rifles
over the past couple of years. “He is now left with
around 150-200 armed cadres, after the arrest of almost
all ULFA top guns. Does he need that many weapons?”
Sarma argued. The main concern for the SFs, now, is
that the excess firearms in the ULFA-ATF arsenal will
fall into the hands of the CPI-Maoist, an emerging force
in the State. The Maoists are already using Chinese
weapons allegedly provided by the PLA.
Reports
also indicate that Baruah may now be using his network
to smuggle narcotics into India. Two agents of Pakistan’s
Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Khwaja Sultan Malik
and Qalil Ahmed, known to be operating out of Bangladesh,
are believed to be helping Baruah and his trusted aides.
Both Malik and Ahmed have close links with drug cartels
in Southeast Asia, known to be smuggling narcotics into
India through the porous Indo-Bangladesh border, allegedly
with the ULFA's help.
Moreover,
in an attempt to garner public support to regain lost
ground, Paresh Baruah has extended support to several
popular and mass movements, such as the anti-dam movement
led by Akhil Gogoi and opposition to the Indo-Bangladesh
accord on border demarcation. In an email statement
to media on June 28, 2011, Baruah declared, "We
should support Gogoi [Akhil] for his continuous struggle
against capitalists.”
Efforts
to re-unite the factions have not been given up and,
on April 29, 2012, ULFA-ATF issued an ultimatum to ULFA-PTF
'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa to return to "active
duty" within three months. ULFA-ATF 'Assistant
Information and Publicity Secretary' Arunudoy Asom stated
that, in case of a failure to comply with the deadline,
the outfit would be forced to change its leadership.
ULFA-ATF’s
continuous efforts to restore its capacities and establish
a wider network of cooperation and collaboration with
other militant and extremist formations in India’s Northeast
continue to constitute a significant threat to peace
in the region, even as they jeopardize the UMHA’s attempts
to secure a peaceful settlement with ULFA-PTF. If the
ULFA-ATF is able to consolidate its power, this will
directly impact on the PTF’s will to engage with the
state, even as talks progressively lose their relevance
to the security situation in Assam. Consequently, sustained
SF operations against the ULFA-ATF are necessary to
halt the processes of consolidation that it has initiated.
Worse, any undermining of the negotiations with ULFA-PTF
would also bring into question the various Cease-fire
Agreements (CFAs) signed earlier with another 18 militant
formations in India’s northeast.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
June 11-17,
2012
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Meghalaya
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Bihar
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Maharashtra
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Odisha
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total
(INDIA)
|
6
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
NEPAL
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
11
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
FATA
|
29
|
0
|
32
|
61
|
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
|
4
|
8
|
7
|
19
|
Sindh
|
48
|
2
|
6
|
56
|
Gilgit Baltistan
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total
(PAKISTAN)
|
93
|
10
|
45
|
148
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
US
provides
anti-terrorism
training
to Bangladesh
Police:
The US on
June 14
concluded
a 10-day
instructor
development
training
programme
for the
Bangladesh
Police in
Dhaka. Twenty-four
officers
and instructors
from Training
Institutes
of Bangladesh
Police participated
in the training
offered
by the Department
of State's
Bureau of
Diplomatic
Security
and taught
by US instructors.
New
Age,
June 15,
2012.
INDIA
Maoists
admit losing
150 cadres:
The CPI-Maoist
has lost
150 members
including
senior leaders,
cadres and
guerrilla
fighters,
admitted
the outfit
on June
12. In a
press statement
issued by
Gudsa Usendi,
the spokesperson
of the Maoists
in Dandakaranya
- the headquarters
of the Maoist
outfit,
announced
that in
Dandakaranya
alone, the
group had
lost 40
of its men
in past
one year.
110 Maoists
died in
the rest
of the country
where the
outfit is
active.
Times
of India,
June 13,
2012.
LeT
terrorists
build own
secure VOIP
network,
according
to media
report:
The Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT) has
built their
own Voice
Over Internet
Protocol
(VOIP) network
that allows
secure communication
over the
Internet,
free of
monitoring
from authorities.
The private
system,
known as
Ibotel,
is similar
to other
VOIP networks
like Skype
that encrypt
audio signals
into binary
data. The
Right Perspective,
June 12,
2012.
Union
Government
approves
INR 11 billion
for NATGRID:
The Centre
on June
14 approved
INR 11 billion
for purchase
of hi-tech
equipment
for the
National
Intelligence
Grid (NATGRID),
cleared
by the Cabinet
last year.
The NATGRID
will pool
information
from 21
categories
of database
including
rail and
air travel,
income tax,
bank account
details,
credit card
transactions
and visa
and immigration
records
for ready
access by
intelligence
agencies.
The
Hindu,
June 15,
2012.
NEPAL
UCPN-M
chairman
Prachanda
seeks CPN-UML
chairman
Jhala Nath
Khanal's
support
to end political
deadlock:
The Central
Committee
meeting
of the dissident
faction
of the Unified
Communist
Party of
Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M)
led by senior
vice chairman
Mohan Baidya
has endorsed
a political
document
that proposes
revolt as
its main
political
line and
terms the
acceptance
of the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement
(CPA) one
of the major
mistakes.
The 17-page
document
prepared
by Baidya
will be
presented
at the national
gathering
of leaders
and supporters
of the faction
starting
from June
16 in Kathmandu.
"The objective
circumstances
are favourable
for revolution
but we should
create the
subjective
circumstances
for revolution,"
the document
reads.
Republica,
June 16,
2012.
Prachanda
ready to
quit party
leadership
for sake
of party
unity:
A Standing
Committee
(SC) meeting
of the establishment
faction
of the Unified
Communist
Party of
Nepal-Maoist
(UCPN-M)
decided
on June
13 that
party chairman
Pushpa Kamal
Dahal aka
Prachanda
is ready
to quit
the party
leadership
for the
sake of
preventing
party split.
The decision
comes at
a time when
the dissident
faction
of the Maoist
party led
by Senior
Vice chairman,
Mohan Baidya
has called
a national
gathering
for June
15 in a
bid to form
new party.
Republica,
June 13,
2012.
PAKISTAN
48
civilians
and six
militants
among 56
persons
killed during
the week
in Sindh:
Twelve people,
including
four Muttahida
Qaumi Movement
(MQM) activists
and a woman,
were killed
in separate
acts of
violence
and target
killing
in Karachi
on June
17. Also,
two people,
including
a Police
constable
and an activist
of the MQM,
were shot
dead in
the night.
Six
people were
killed in
Karachi
in separate
incidents
of firing
on June
16.
At
least 11
more people
were shot
dead and
two others
wounded
in different
parts of
Karachi
on June
15.
At
least nine
persons,
including
a Police
Officer,
were killed
and over
a half dozen
injured
in different
acts of
target killings
in Karachi
on June
14.
Four
people,
including
a cadre
of People's
Amn Committee
(PAC), were
killed in
separate
acts of
violence
in different
areas of
Karachi
on June
13.
Three
people,
including
the brother
of MQM's
ex-Member
of Provincial
Assembly,
were killed
in separate
acts of
violence
in the metropolis
on June
12.
Nine
persons,
including
four gangsters
and one
Muttahida
Qaumi Movement
(MQM) activist,
were killed
in separate
incidents
of violence
in Karachi
on June
10.
Dawn;
Daily
Times;
The
News;
Tribune,
June 12-18,
2012
29
civilians
and 32 militants
among 61
persons
killed during
the week
in FATA:
Seven terrorists
were killed
and several
of their
hideouts
destroyed
in bombing
by aircraft
in North
Waziristan
Agency (NWA)
on June
17.
25
people were
killed when
a car bomb
hit a crowded
bazaar in
the town
of Landi
Kotal in
Khyber Agency.
Nine
militants
were killed
and four
injured
after jetfighters
attacked
their hideouts
in Kalaya
area of
Upper Orakzai
Agency on
June 15.
At
least nine
suspected
militants
were killed
and four
others were
injured
when military
planes attacked
their positions
in upper
tehsil (revenue
unit) of
Orakzai
Agency on
June 14.
Separately,
a US drone
attack killed
at least
three more
militants
by firing
two missiles
on a building
in the central
market of
Miranshah
in NWA.
A
US drone
fired two
missiles
on a car
near Miranshah
in NWA killing
four suspects
inside the
car on June
13.
Dawn;
Daily
Times;
The
News;
Tribune,
June 12-18,
2012
22
civilians
among 25
persons
killed during
the week
in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa:
At least
21 persons
were killed
and over
40 others
injured
on June
8 when a
powerful
bomb ripped
through
a bus carrying
Government
employees
in Gulbela
area on
the Charsadda
Road in
the jurisdiction
of Daudzai
Police Station
in Peshawar.
The Intelligence
reports
revealed
that it
was a suicide
attack.
The
News,
June 8,
2012.
JuD
resumes
online jihad:
The Jama'at-ud-Dawa
(JuD) has
resumed
online jihad.
In a video
address
posted on
its website,
the website
went online
on June
13, the
JuD 'chief'
Hafiz Muhammad
Saeed explained
the decision.
"The media
is a two-edged
sword,"
said Saeed,
adding,
"Rather
than being
overwhelmed
by the media,
we wish
to use it
in a positive
way and,
god willing,
use it to
spread our
message
of proselytisation
and jihad."
The
Hindu,
June 15,
2012.
Al
Qaeda releases
video featuring
Abu Yahya
al-Libi:
A new video
featuring
al Qaeda's
number two
Abu Yahya
al-Libi,
who the
US says
was killed
on June
4, 2012,
in a drone
strike in
North Waziristan
Agency of
Federally
Administered
Tribal Areas
(FATA) in
Pakistan,
has been
posted online.
Both the
SITE
Monitoring
Service
and IntelCentre,
which keep
tabs on
militants'
websites,
said it
was not
clear when
the video
had been
made. SITE
said the
video production
date only
indicated
it had been
produced
by al Qaeda's
media arm
As-Sahab
sometime
after November
2011. Dawn,
June 14,
2012.
Suicide
attacks
declining
in Pakistan,
reveals
data collected
by Pakistan
Body Count:
Pakistan
Body Count
on June
13 reported
that there
is a steep
decline
in suicide
attacks
in the past
few years.
According
to the data,
the number
of incidents
as well
as causalities,
have witnessed
a steep
decline
compared
to 2009
and 2010
- the peak
years in
terms of
causalities.
Times
of India,
June 13,
2012.
Islamabad
should 'bite
the bullet'
on NATO
supplies,
US Senior
Government
official:
The Pakistani
Government
should "bite
the bullet"
and re-open
supply routes
to NATO
forces in
Afghanistan
in order
to ease
tensions
with the
US, a senior
US Government
official
said on
June 12.
The US had
said on
June 11,
2012, that
it was withdrawing
its team
of negotiators
from Pakistan
without
securing
a long-sought
deal on
supply routes
for the
war in neighbouring
Afghanistan,
publicly
exposing
a diplomatic
stalemate
and deeply
strained
relations
that appear
at risk
of deteriorating
further.
Daily
Times,
June 13,
2012.
Supreme
Court would
summon Army
chief Ashfaq
Pervez Kayani
over Balochistan
situation,
says Chief
Justice
Iftikhar
Muhammad
Chaudhry:
The Supreme
Court on
June 11
hinted it
could summon
Chief of
Army Staff
General
Ashfaq Pervez
Kayani over
the worsening
law order
situation
in Balochistan,
and could
ask him
how the
country
should be
run and
what he
can do in
this regard.
The Chief
Justice
of Pakistan,
Justice
Iftikhar
Muhammad
Chaudhry,
remarked
that the
court could
pass an
order under
Article
190 to summon
the Army
Chief. Daily
Times,
June 12,
2012.
Taliban
links vaccination
to drone
strikes:
The Taliban
in North
Waziristan
Agency of
Federally
Administered
Tribal Areas
(FATA) has
declared
a ban on
the polio
vaccination
programme
in the tribal
agency as
long as
drone attacks
continue
in the region.
This ban
was announced
on June
16 through
a press
release
which claimed
polio affected
only few
in comparison
to drones
which killed
large numbers
indiscriminately.
The
Hindu,
June17,
2012.
SRI LANKA
Sri
Lanka experiences
the largest
year-on-year
improvement
in Global
Peace
Index:
According
to the 2012
Global Peace
Index (GPI)
released
on June
12, Sri
Lanka has
achieved
great improvement
in the GPI.
Sri Lanka's
GPI score
experienced
the largest
year-on-year
improvement
of the 158
nations
surveyed
and it climbed
27 places
to 103rd
position
overall
and 17th
in the Asia
Pacific
region ahead
of India
(142) and
Pakistan
(149). ColomboPage,
June 13,
2012.
The
South
Asia Intelligence
Review
(SAIR)
is a weekly
service
that brings
you regular
data,
assessments
and news
briefs
on terrorism,
insurgencies
and sub-conventional
warfare,
on counter-terrorism
responses
and policies,
as well
as on
related
economic,
political,
and social
issues,
in the
South
Asian
region.
SAIR
is a project
of the
Institute
for Conflict
Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism
Portal.
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