Karachi: Hitting the Police | Maoists: Urban, Interrupted | Tripura: Crippled Rebellion | South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 12.14
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 16, October 21, 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Karachi: Hitting the Police
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 9, 2013, four Policemen were killed in two separate incidents of target killing in Karachi, the provincial capital of Pakistan's Sindh Province. The Station House Officer (SHO) of the Sir Syed Police Station, Syed Irfan Haider, and Station Investigation Officer (SIO) of New Karachi Police Station, Shahbaz Ali, were shot dead in the jurisdictions of the Sir Syed Police Station. In another incident of target killing on the same day, two Policemen, identified as Amir Khan (48) and Shabbir Alam (35), were shot dead at a Police post at Ismaili Apartment in the Metroville area of the Sindh Industrial Trading Estate (SITE).

On September 14, 2013, Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Mumtaz Ali Shah was killed near Model Colony in the Malir Cantonment area. Police said that DSP Ali Shah had earlier received threats from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP).

Indeed, Sindh Police spokesperson Moizuddin Pirzada disclosed, on October 10, 2013, that at least 138 Policeman had lost their lives in Karachi in the ongoing targeted operations against ‘criminals' (target killers, extortionists and kidnappers) that was launched on September 7, 2013. The victims included two DSPs, three Inspectors, 13 Sub-Inspectors (SIs), 16 Assistant Sub-Inspectors (ASIs), 26 Head Constables and 78 Constables. More than 162 Policemen have also sustained injuries during these operations. He added that the reaction to the operation was not limited to Karachi alone, as around 16 Policemen had lost their lives and another 31 sustained injuries in other parts of the Province.

The Police spokesperson further stated that the Police had arrested 4741 ‘criminals’, including, 57 target killers, and recovered 1,209 arms and 52 bombs. The Police spokesperson did not, however, mention how many ‘criminals’ were killed during this period. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), however, at least 29 ‘criminals’ and terrorists have been killed in Karachi during this period.

The ‘criminals’ killed/arrested belonged to the Pakistan Amn Committee (PAC) and the Lyari Gang. Those killed/arrested also included cadres of the TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jama’at (ASWJ, earlier known as SSP), Sunni Tehreek (ST), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Jundullah. TTP’s urban mobility and survival in the metropolitan landscape suggest its insidious alliance with local criminal groupings and other sectarian-terrorist outfits. Confirming the linkages, an unnamed official in the Police Department disclosed in 2011, "There are definite signs of some connectivity in Karachi between local criminal gangs and some religious extremist groups with Taliban (TTP) who are well organised and this could be the reason for the upsurge in violence in the city."

Karachi has, in fact, witnessed numerous such operations in past. Each of these, however, failed to stem the blood bath that Pakistan's commercial capital has been witnessing since 2010. According to partial data compiled by SATP, Karachi has recorded at least 5,073 fatalities, including 4,245 civilians, 467 terrorists/criminals and 361 SF personnel since 2010. In 2013, Karachi has already recorded at least 1,339 fatalities, including 1,094 civilians, 124 terrorists/criminals and 121 SFs (data till October 20, 2013).

Terrorism Related Fatalities in Karachi: 2010-2013

Years

Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists
Total

2010

777
61
158
996

2011

1079
61
68
1208

2012

1295
118
117
1530

2013

1094
121
124
1339

Total*

4245
361
467
5073
Source: SATP, *Data till October 20, 2013

In the meantime, an Army soldier was killed at Kachal along the LoC in the Keran Sector as the Army foiled an infiltration bid by terrorists in the night of October 10, 2013.

More worryingly, in the aftermath of such past operations, the Policemen involved have been selectively targeted. Significantly, on October 7, 2011, the Supreme Court had issued orders to the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Sindh, Mushtaq Shah, to report in a month on the disappearance or murders of all Policemen who took part in the Karachi operations of 1992 and 1996. “[The Police] are conscious of the fact that so many [of them] who took part in the operations of 1992 and 1996 have disappeared or have been eliminated,” the Court observed. The Court agreed with assessments provided during the hearings of suo motu proceedings into Karachi’s violence that about 30 to 40 per cent of Police officers were 'non-cooperative', not just because of political appointments but also because of fear. They are punished for doing their duty if it runs counter to the political objectives of the party in power, on the one hand, and on the other, they are afraid of being shot by the men they have apprehended or by their associates. The Court had taken suo motu notice of violence in Karachi.  The Sindh Police authorities later came up with a list of 157 Policemen who took part in the 1990s ‘Karachi operations’ and were assassinated one by one in different parts of the city. Finally, on October 25, 2012, the IGP Mushtaq Shah informed the Supreme Court that 254 Policemen who took part in the operations of 1992 and 1996 had been killed.

An unnamed former Police officer, who reportedly had played an important role in Operation Clean-up, launched in 1992, claimed in a media interview that he was one of the few survivors, as all his men, who took part in that action, had been targeted and killed one by one. “We lost most of our men from 2000 to 2004. The second period was during 2006 and 2008 and then again from 2008 to 2009. They killed with impunity. Only a few of us who spearheaded Operation Clean-up are now alive, but under the threat of elimination,” he said, adding that if they too were killed, no one in the entire Force would ever even think of cleansing Karachi of terrorists.

Operation Clean-up was launched on June 19, 1992, by the then Nawaz Sharif Government, with additional assistance from the Pakistan Army, led, at that time, by General Asif Nawaz Janjua, and other security agencies, including the Intelligence Bureau, which was then headed by Brigadier Imtiaz Ahmed alias Imtiaz Billa. The objective was to cleanse the city of ‘anti-social elements’. However, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) chief Altaf Hussain criticised the operation as state-terrorism and extra-judicial killings, and blamed Nawaz Sharif for the killing of 15,000 people in Karachi and the forced disappearances of 'thousands' of his workers. The Army ‘concluded’ Operation Clean-up on August 16, 1994. However, the Operation was re-launched, when the Benazir Bhutto-led Government came to power in 1996.

Apart from Policemen, other wings of the Security Forces involved in fighting ‘crime’ in Karachi have also been targeted with impunity. A July 2013 report noted that, other than Policemen, eight Pakistan Rangers were also killed in 2013.

Some of the major attacks (each involving three or more fatalities) targeting SFs in 2013, include the following:

August 15: Three Policemen, including a DSP, Qasim Ghauri, were killed, and another three Policemen were injured during an encounter near Safari Park in Gulshan Town.

August 2: At least four Policemen were shot dead by unidentified militants near a bridge located at Bagh-e-Korangi area in the Shah Faisal Town of Karachi.

June 9: At least three Policemen were killed in an attack on a Police vehicle in the Patel Para area of Karachi.

April 4: Four paramilitary soldiers were killed and three others were injured in a bomb blast near the paramilitary complex in the Korangi area of Karachi. The TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.

March 3: Four Policemen were killed when unidentified assailants attacked a Police check post on the Superhighway in Karachi.

January 24: Quaidabad DSP Kamal Khan Mangan and ASI Akbar Hussain were among four persons killed in a span of several minutes in the Sherpao Colony of the Landhi area in Karachi. Another 12 persons, including five Policemen, were injured in the attack. A low-intensity bomb exploded in a garbage dump and when Police officers gathered there to investigate the incident, the second explosion took place and caused the casualties.

The systematic targeting and assassination of large numbers of SF personnel, primarily Policemen, is a part of the escalating dynamic of violence in Karachi. It is certain to affect the morale of the SFs engaged in counter insurgency operations which have been launched substantially with political motives, and that are bound to fail again, as they have in the past.

INDIA
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Maoists: Urban, Interrupted
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The detention of Hem Chandra Mishra (30), a student of the New Delhi based Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) by the Nagpur Police in Aheri, Gadchiroli District, Maharashtra, on August 20, 2013, and his subsequent arrest by the State Police on August 23, has opened up an old debate about the Communist Party of India-Maoist’s (CPI-Maoist) penetration into the urban spaces of the country. Mishra was arrested along with Pandu Pora Narote (27) and Mahesh Tirki (24) of Morewada village in the Etapalli tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District. He was carrying coded messages meant for the Maoist leadership in Dandakaranya forests in central India. Confirming the arrest, a press release of the Gadchiroli District Police stated, on August 24, “The accused have accepted that they were going to give these documents to Senior Naxal [Left-Wing Extremist (LWE)] leader Narmada Akka. Pandu Narote and Mahesh Tirki also accepted that both of them were regular couriers of Narmada Akka and other senior Naxal leaders in Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh.” 

Further, within a week of Mishra's arrest, Police searched the Delhi home of G.N. Saibaba, an Assistant Professor of English literature at Ram Lal Anand College of Delhi University on September 12, 2013. He is the Joint Secretary of the Revolutionary Democratic Front (RDF), a Maoist front organisation active in Delhi and in Gurgaon and Noida, on the outskirts of Delhi. The Gadchiroli Police claim that Saibaba is a Maoist, known in his circles as Prashant alias Chetan, and uses these names to interact and hatch conspiracies with over ground Maoists through online chat forums. Police claim that Mishra went to Gadchiroli under Saibaba's direction. Though Saibaba admitted that he had met Mishra in the past, he denies sending him to Dandakaranya. It is significant that, on December 7, 2011, the then Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, Jitendra Singh, while replying to a Parliamentary question, disclosed that the Union Ministry of Home Affairs had listed the RDF as a Maoist front organisation along with the Committee for Release of Political Prisoners (CRPP), People's Democratic Front of India (PDFI) and Democratic Students Union (DSU), each of which is active in Delhi.

On September 1, 2013, Prashant Rahi (52), a free lance journalist from Uttarakhand, and his associate, Vijay Tikri, were arrested from Deori in the Gondia District of Maharashtra, on suspicion that Rahi was heading to meet a senior Maoist leader. Rahi is from Uttarakhand and he has been associated with number of social causes from time to time. He has been arrested on an earlier occasion for his alleged Maoist links. Though he has rejected the charges levelled against him by the Gadchiroli Police, the Police still claim that they had enough evidence to arrest him.

It is useful to recall the arrest of Kobad Ghandy, a CPI-Maoist Central Committee member and top Maoist ideologue, from Delhi on September 21, 2009. This was one of the first high profile arrests that threw light on the Maoists’ evolving networks with India's cities. Subsequently, there have been numerous arrests in various cities. The most prominent among these were:

December 3, 2010: Anil Ghosh alias Ajoyda, State Committee Member, was arrested from Kolkata in West Bengal.

February 8, 2010: Baccha Prasad Singh, CPI-Maoist Politbureau member was arrested from Kanpur in Uttar Pradesh. Seven other Maoists, including top leader Banshidhar alias Chintan Da were also arrested along with him.

August 24, 2009: Amitabha Bagchi alias Anil, CPI-Maoist Politbureau member, was arrested from Ranchi in Jharkhand.

August 19, 2007: Krishnan Srinivasan alias Vishnu alias Vijay alias Sreedhar alias Shekar, Central Committee Member, was arrested from Mumbai in Maharashtra.

The Maoists’ efforts to extend their networks into India's cities is guided by a detailed strategy that has been meticulously explained in their document, Urban Perspective: Our Work in Urban Areas, which notes, inter alia.
Work in the urban areas has a special importance in our revolutionary work… in our revolution, which follows the line of protracted people's war, the liberation of urban areas will be possible only in the last stage of the revolution… However, we should not belittle the importance of the fact that the urban areas are the strong centres of the enemy. Building up of a strong urban revolutionary movement means that our Party should build a struggle network capable of waging struggle consistently by sustaining itself until the protracted people's war reaches the stage of strategic offensive. With this long term perspective, we should develop a secret party, a united front and people's armed elements; intensify the class struggle in the urban areas and mobilize the support of millions of urban masses for the people's war.

The recent arrests point to the fact that, despite setbacks, the Maoists persist in their efforts to build a 'struggle network' across India's cities, including the capital, Delhi, metros, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai,  as well as other cities like Patna, Ranchi, Kanpur, Nagpur and Pune. Preliminary inroads were made through various devices, including engagement with workers unions, university students, various 'Rights' organisations, and popular protest movements. 

On August 13, 2013, the Union Minister of State for Home Affairs RPN Singh told the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament), “There is no intelligence/information to suggest that Naxal organizations are infiltrating through security agencies and factories to expand their network in the urban areas. However, a few cases have come to notice where the CPI-Maoist cadres have undertaken employment in urban areas primarily to earn livelihood and also evade police arrest. Also, the ‘front organizations’ of the banned CPI-Maoist party as well as organizations sympathetic to the said outfit have been supporting the cause of the workers employed in factories. Their objective is essentially to exploit the situation to gain a foot-hold among the working class.” The Minister added, further, that the Maoists were operating under their Tactical United Front (TUF) to mobilise 'working classes' for carrying out subversive activities.

During the 2012 Maruti plant strike in Manesar (Haryana) it was widely speculated in the media and security organisations that the Maoists’ affiliated front organisations may have had a role in the cycle of escalating violence in the plant. However, in November 2013, the Chief Secretary of Haryana claimed that there was no evidence of Maoist involvement in the incidents. Speaking on the Maruti plant strike in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament)  the then Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, Jitendra Singh, observed, on August 22, 2012, “Subsequent to the incident (violence at Maruti Manesar plant), a number of front organizations of the banned CPI-Maoists, as well as bodies sympathetic to the outfit such as the Mehnatkash Mazdoor Morcha (MMM), Democratic Students’ Union (DSU), People’s Democratic Front of India (PDFI) and the Committee for Release of Political Prisoners (CRPP), have organized demonstrations supporting the cause of the workers of the Maruti factory.” Though there was no concrete evidence of Maoist involvement in the violence at the Maruti plant, protest demonstrations organised in support of the workers after the incidents suggest that front organisations at least sought to exploit the situation to gain a foothold among workers, in line with the Maoists' 'urban perspective'.

The arrest of Kanchan alias Sudip Chongdar alias Batash alias Gautam, the Maoists’ ‘state secretary’, in Kolkata on December 3, 2010, shed more light on how students were being used as new recruits to carry forward Maoists ideas. Kanchan revealed that a recruitment process was on for the outfit's 'military wing' and Jadavpur University had emerged as a major centre for cadres. He also revealed that 12 students from Presidency College were working actively as CPI-Maoist cadres in Lalgarh. However, the Maoists' attempts to spread their network in Kolkata have suffered heavily, as many of their senior leaders have been arrested from Kolkata. These prominently include Sadanala Ramakrishna alias RK, the head of the Central Technical Committee (arrested on February 29, 2012); Venkateswar Reddy alias Telugu Dipak, a top CPI-Maoist leader (arrested on March 2, 2010); Mohan Vishwakarma, a senior member of the Central Technical Committee and Technical Research and Arms Manufacturing (TRAM) cell (arrested on July 26, 2012); Madhusudan Mondal alias Narayan alias Madhu alias Salim, Member – State Committee and Secretary Zonal Committee, Nandigram (arrested on June 29, 2010); Musafir Sahani alias Anand alias Alok da alias Manik, member of the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh State Committees (arrested on August 21, 2010).

According to the Maharashtra Anti-Naxal Operations (ANO) wing, a "close watch" is being maintained on Mumbai’s St Xavier College, Tata Institute of Social Science (TISS), and Fergusson College, Pune, for possible Maoist links. Maharashtra’s Anti Terrorism Squad (ATS) and ANO believe these institutions may be the new Maoist recruiting grounds.

Separately, on June 3, 2013, a Hyderabad Central University student was arrested in Khammam District for escorting a top Maoist’s wife. Maoist posters were also found pasted in the campus of Osmania University in Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh) in June 2013. Further, the Democratic Students Union (DSU), active in Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, has been identified by the Union Home Ministry as a Maoist front organisation. 

According to a recent internal report prepared by the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the Government has identified 128 Maoist front organisations. These organisations are present in 16 states, including relatively 'unaffected' states, which have not traditionally suffered Maoist violence, such as Uttarakhand, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana and Punjab. The IB report lists 17 such organizations operating in Jharkhand, 13 in Andhra Pradesh, 12 in Karnataka, 10 each in Bihar and Odisha, nine each in Delhi, Maharashtra and Bengal, eight in Haryana, six in Chhattisgarh, four each in Kerala and Tamil Nadu and three in Gujarat. Of Delhi's 11 Districts, seven have been categorized as 'marginally affected' by Maoist activity - Central, South, New Delhi, North-West, North, South-West and North East Districts.

The Maoists’ attempt to expand their base in India is not a new phenomenon. They have, however, had limited success in these efforts and have, in fact, suffered dramatic leadership losses as a result. Nevertheless, the effort appears sustained and can be expected to accelerate, precisely because of the increasing dearth of 'ideological' cadres, partly because of the recent leadership losses and also because of the fading appeal of the movement in some of its heartland areas and institutions. These  processes continue with no more than fitful interruption because of the limited capacities of state enforcement and intelligence agencies to monitor activities of various Maoist fronts, as well as to document and interdict the development and activities of the urban 'struggle networks' that have been established, or are evolving. Unless far more comprehensive measures are available to discover and neutralize the Maoist presence in urban areas, the dangerous possibility of the rebels building the bases of a self-sustaining struggle in cities cannot be excluded.

INDIA
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Tripura: Crippled Rebellion
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

An 18-hour Bandh (general shut down) in Manipur and Tripura was announced by the Coordinating Committee (CorCom) of six Valley-based militant groups of Manipur and the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) in protest against the merger of the then kingdoms of Manipur and Twipra (Tripura) with the dominion of India on October 15, 1949. The strike, however, affected life in Manipur alone and failed to touch a sympathetic chord in Tripura.

Crucially, a decades-old tribal insurgency in Tripura had led to mass killings and displacement, but had been successfully tamed by the Tripura Police. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, Tripura has not recorded a single terrorism- related fatality in 2013; two militants had been killed in 2012, and a single civilian lost his life in 2011. At its peak in 2000, the insurgency had claimed 514 lives.

2013 also recorded the neutralization of two prominent figures who had engineered the insurgency in Tripura, Nayanbashi Jamatiya alias Nakbar and Ranjit Debbarma.

Nayanbashi Jamatiya, leader of the Nayanbashi faction of NLFT (NLFT- NB), surrendered to the Police in Khowai District on August 9, 2013. He had sneaked into Indian Territory through the Malda border in West Bengal. Struggling with ill health due to long torture in a Bangladeshi jail, a depressed Nayanbashi had also been suffering from acute financial distress, a Police source disclosed. The NLFT-NB, along with its leader, Nayanbashi Jamatiya, had surrendered en masse in 2006, but returned to the jungles because it failed to secure 'satisfactory' terms. On April 28, 2011, the State Government had declared that all the promises made at the time of the signing of the tripartite peace accord with the NLFT-NB on December 17, 2004, had been fulfilled. Bhuchuk Borok, ‘vice-president’ of the NLFT-NB had praised the Union Ministry of Home Affairs and the State Government for their sincerity in fulfilling the terms of the peace accord. Janshi Rani Jamatya, Nayanbanshi 's first wife, had earlier commented, “Nayanbashi repents over his fate. He wants to surrender so that he can survive with minimum dignity”.

On January 23, 2013, Security Forces (SFs) disclosed the arrest of All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) 'chairman' Ranjit Debbarma from an area near the Indo-Bangla border under the Sidhai Police Station in the Mohanpur Subdivision of West Tripura District. Subsequently, however, Special Branch (SB) sources in Tripura confirmed that Debbarma had, in fact, been arrested on December 30 (2012) by a joint contingent of the Tripura Police and the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh, from his flat in the Mohammad Pur area of Dhaka. After his arrest, however, the ATTF leader declared, “I am determined to continue the struggle for liberation of Tripura and I will do so once I get out of custody.”

According to a January 24, 2013, report, State Police disclosed that Debbarma had been involved in several major incidents of the massacre of non-tribals: these included the slaughter of  26 non-tribals in the Bazar Colony area of Kalyanpur in the Khowai Subdivision of West Tripura District in December 1996; the killing of an unconfirmed number of non-tribals in February 1997 in different parts of Khowai Subdivision; the Kalyanpur Market massacre in June of 2000, where more than 100 non-tribals were killed; in Bagber area under Kalyanpur Police Station of West Tripura District in May 2000; the killing of 18 unarmed non-tribals in Panchayati market under Sadar (North) of West Tripura District in December 1999; and the killing of 21 men, women and children at Simna colony in Sadar (North) of West Tripura District in May 2003. Sources, however, pointed out that the strongest cases against him involved "the abduction and killing of tea planter Yogabrata Chakraborty in June 1996 despite payment of a huge ransom of INR 3 million and the abduction and year-long captivity of  Communist Party of India- Marxist (CPI-M)’s Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Simna, Pranab Debbarma.”

Chief Minister (CM), Manik Sarkar expressed cautious appreciation of the current Bangladesh Government's efforts to crack down on militants from the Northeast, stating, on January 26, 2013, "The present Bangladesh Government has initiated measures to drive away anti-India militants based there. But I think there is scope for more action. I say this, because even now 22 hideouts of outfits banned by the Tripura Government exist on Bangladeshi soil. And we have asked the Union Home Minister and Union External Affairs Minister to take up this issue with Bangladesh during bilateral talks."

After, the neutralization of Nayanbashi Jamatiya and Ranjit Debbarma, Biswamohan Debbarma who leads the Biswamohan faction of NLFT (NLFT-BM), remains the only major leader currently outside the security net. According to a September 22, 2013 report, the NLFT-BM is led now by Upendra Reang, and their original ‘president’ Biswamohan Debbarma, is seldom seen. The number of militants in the group has also gone down drastically.

Meanwhile, the improvement in the security situation has led the State Government to issue a notification on June 5, 2013 stating that Armed Forces Special Powers Act, (AFSPA) 1958 would be effective fully in just 25 Police Station areas, and partly in seven. The Act was first put into effect in 40 of the total 70 Police Station areas in the State, in February 1997.

While the insurgency has lost momentum and support, nagging problems persists. People who were displaced during the course of the insurgency are yet to be resettled. On August 26, 2013, hundreds of people, led by the West Tripura and Sepahijala District Displaced Development Committee, held a sit-in-demonstration in front of the office of the District Magistrate (West) at Agartala, demanding unconditional housing benefits for all those who were evicted from their homelands during the peak of violence. Some 19,468 families were displaced between March 1, 1998, and February 28, 2003, in the State. Bishalgarh Subdivision in West Tripura District suffered the most, with a recorded displacement of 12,106 families.

In another development, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar, in separate meetings with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde in Delhi in July 2013, sought their intervention push for the repatriation of Bru refugees from Tripura to their villages in Mizoram. The fifth phase of repatriation is currently underway (September 30-October 6, 2013) with about 100 families from relief camps in the Kanchanpur Subdivision of North Tripura District being returned to Mizoram. The fifth phase had been planned for the return of 121 Bru families. 891 Bru families have earlier been repatriated to Mizoram in four phases between May 2010 and May 2012, out of an estimated 35,000 Bru refugees in Tripura.

Further, the recent declaration in favour of the formation of a separate Telangana State by the Congress Working Committee (CWC) on July 30, 2013, and its endorsement by the Union Cabinet on October 3, 2013, has resulted in the renewal of the demand for a separate Tribal State to be carved out of Tripura. The demand is being pushed mainly by the Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) for Twipraland to be carved out along the existing Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC). A rally was organised by IPFT on August 23, 2013, followed by the submission of a memorandum addressed to Governor Devanand Konwar. The TTADC has jurisdiction over two-thirds of Tripura's geographical area of 10,491.69 square kilometre. IPFT had earlier demanded the creation of a separate State for tribals in the year 2009. However, the State unit of ruling CPI-M is strongly against any division of the present State. CPI-M Tripura State General Secretary, Bijan Dhar, after a two-day long meeting of the Party's State Committee, stated, on August 25, 2013, that the meeting had resolved to oppose the demand for any division of Tripura. Dhar stated, further, that that the agenda of those seeking the creation of Twipraland was mainly to create distrust and tension between the tribal and non-tribal communities in the State.

The curtain appears to have fallen on Tripura’s persistent ethnic insurgency, but potential faultlines remain, and external players have demonstrated a strong intention to keep the region unstable. According to an April 1, 2013, media report, arrested ATTF ‘President’ Ranjit Debbarma told his interrogators that the Pakistani spy agency, Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), had been pumping in Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) into India via militant groups, and that the ISI was taking “renewed and firm interest” in joint training camps for militant formations in the region. The report further claimed that the ISI's current strategy was to “keep the northeast on a perennial boil”. Evidence of some Chinese mischief in the Northeast has also been mounting, with repeated seizures of weapons of Chinese make, as well as credible intelligence of a continuous interface between the Chinese and the leaderships of some insurgent groups in India's Northeast - particularly including the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Manipur and the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in Assam.

The counter-insurgency in Tripura secured a dramatic against some of the most violent rebel movements in India, and subsequent policies of the State Government in the spheres of development and relief have gone a long way in consolidating these gains. Tripura is among the most stable polities in the Northeast today, and among the most secure regimes in the country. Nevertheless, given the broader context of volatility in the Northeast and the persistent hostility of some of India's neighbours, any proclivity to complacence would be dangerous. The fact that Tripura is among the most geographically isolated and poorly connected States of the Indian Union cannot be ignored even for a moment.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 14-20, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

1
0
0
1

INDIA

 

Assam

0
0
1
1

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
2
3

Manipur

0
3
0
3

Left-wing Extremism

 

Bihar

7
0
0
7

Maharashtra

0
3
0
3

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

8
7
3
18

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

3
1
0
4

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

12
4
1
17

Sindh

2
1
1
4

Total (PAKISTAN)

17
6
2
25
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Seven persons killed as Maoists trigger cane bomb in Bihar: Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres on October 17 detonated a cane bomb - a trademark Improvised Explosive Device (IED) used by them - to blow up a vehicle, killing all its seven occupants near Pathara village in Aurangabad District. The victims included Sushil Pandey, suspected Ranvir Sena (Militia of upper caste landowners) activist and husband of Zilla Parishad (district level local self-Government institution) member Usha Devi. Times of India, October 18, 2013.

Maoists can carry out spectacular attacks, says Union Minister for Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde: The Union Minister of Home Affairs (UMHA) Sushilkumar Shinde October 18 said the security agencies have a lot of ground to cover in neutralizing the armed capability of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), who have the power to carry out spectacular attacks against soft targets. He said "The CPI-Maoist has the capacity to launch spectacular strikes in its stronghold areas (like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha), especially against soft targets." Times of India, October 19, 2013.

Indian Mujahideen trying to turn into al Qaida-style Network, reveals arrested IM leader Yasin Bhatkal: Arrested Indian Mujahideen (IM) 'India operation chief' Yasin Bhatkal during his recent interrogations has revealed that the outfit is now trying to grow up as a terror network like al Qaida, keeping a close liaison with Pakistan based al Qaida network Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), admits arrested IM leader Yasin Bhatkal, during his recent interrogations by different intelligence agencies. Bhatkal claimed that their ultimate mission is to uphold Sharia in India like the Mujahideen in Afghanistan and Somalia.

Meanwhile, threat analysis carried out by security agencies on the basis of details provided by Yasin Bhatkal and his aide Akhtar Asadullah revealed that IM has become stronger and more lethal despite the arrest of over 100 of its cadres. The group has branched out to Pakistan and Afghanistan, where its cadres are fighting alongside the Taliban. Times of India, October 21, 2013, Financial Express , October 17, 2013.

India getting US aid to bring back Dawood Ibrahim, discloses Union Minister for Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde: Union Minister for Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde disclosed that the help of US intelligence was being taken to bring Dawood Ibrahim to justice. Indian intelligence agencies, which are closely coordinating with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), in laying their hands on Dawood Ibrahim are facing a major hurdle in Pakistan. Sources in the agencies said they were stunned to know that Dawood regularly uses the private helicopter of a top politician of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-Nawaz) to fly to his hideout in the Swat Valley. Daily Bhaskar , October 17, 2013.

India rejects Sharif's demand for US intervention on Kashmir issue: Rejecting Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's demand for US intervention in resolving the Kashmir issue, India's External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid on October 20 said India will not accept this as the matter is a bilateral one agreed to between the two nations. "There is no way in which India will accept any intervention on an issue that is entirely accepted in the Simla Agreement as a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan," he said.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration on October 20 said there has not been an "iota of change" in its policy on Kashmir which considers it a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan, dismissing the latest Pakistani efforts to seek US intervention in this regard. "On Kashmir, our policy has not changed an iota," an unnamed US official said.

Earlier on October 19, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has said US intervention would resolve the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan. Times of India, October 19-21, 2013.


PAKISTAN

10 people including provincial Law Minister Israrullah Gandapur killed in suicide attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: At least 10 people, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Law Minister Israrullah Gandapur, were killed and over 30 others were injured when a suicide bomber struck a festive gathering at the residence of Gandapur in the Kolachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District on October 16. Israrullah Gandapur was elected from PK-67 (DI Khan IV) as an independent candidate during the 2013 General Elections and later joined the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The News, October 17, 2013.

722 terror suspects have rejoined terrorist groups after acquittal, says report: 722 terror suspects have rejoined terrorist groups from 1,964 alleged terrorists released by courts from 2007 till now, an official Government document said. Another 1,197 out of 1,964 are still actively involved in anti-state activities. Dawn, October 21, 2013.

At least 400 civilians killed by US drone strikes in Pakistan, says UN official: Pakistan has confirmed that of some 2,200 people killed by drone strikes in the past decade, at least 400 were civilians and an additional 200 victims were deemed "probable non-combatants," Ben Emmerson, UN special rapporteur on human rights and counterterrorism said on October 18. He also urged the US to release its own data on the number of civilian casualties caused by its drone strikes. Times of India, October 19, 2013.

No evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan's deteriorating law and order, says Balochistan Chief Minister Abdul Malik Baloch: Balochistan Chief Minister Abdul Malik Baloch on October 16 said that he had no evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan's deteriorating law and order. However, he added that the federal government and federal agencies have such evidence. He also said that the law and order situation had improved in Quetta, therefore 50 per cent of checkposts set by Frontier Corps (FC) had been removed. The Nation, October 19, 2013.

President promulgates Protection of Pakistan Ordinance: President Mamnoon Hussain on October 20 promulgated the Protection of Pakistan Ordinance, which maintains that the writ of the state would be established at all costs. The ordinance states that the security and Law Enforcement Agencies would jointly investigate the incidents of terrorism, and the elements creating terror and fear would be considered as enemies of the state. The draft of the ordinance states that Pakistan and its people had been exposed to undeclared and thankless wars that proliferated from the country's neighbourhood since 1979. Daily Times, October 21, 2013.


SRI LANKA

Colombo decides to summon CMs of all nine Provincial Councils to cabinet meetings once a month: Colombo has decided to summon the Chief Ministers (CMs) of all nine Provincial Councils to the cabinet meetings once a month. Accordingly, the Chief Ministers will attend the cabinet meeting at the third week of every month. This is a practice which will be restarted after a lapse of some time. Sources said that the restart of the programme is specifically aimed at summoning the newly appointed Chief Minister of the Northern Provincial Council C.V. Vigneswaran with whom the Government is building up a rapid rapport for reconciliation. Colombo Page, October 18, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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