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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 29, January 15, 2018
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Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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FATA:
Troubled Territory
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
At least
two civilians were killed and another injured when a terrorist
attacked a ‘checkpost’ of the peace committee in the Wana
area of South Waziristan Agency (SWA) in the Federally
Administered Tribal Area (FATA) on December 14, 2017.
No group has, so far, claimed responsibility for the attack.
On December
6, 2017, one Ali Mohammad, a peace committee member, was
killed by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
terrorists in Daggar village of the Chagmalai region
in SWA. According to local media, an unnamed spokesman
of the outfit claimed the attack and warned that members
of the peace committee would continue to be targeted.
On December
2, 2017, a pro-Government tribal elder, Malak Ameer Rehman,
was killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion
in the Olai Shah area of Ambar tehsil (revenue
unit) in Mohmand Agency. No group has claimed responsibility
for the attack so far.
On November
30, 2017, five peace committee members were killed and
two were injured in a remotely detonated bomb in the Spinkai
area, near the Afghanistan border, in SWA. The Sajna faction
of TTP claimed responsibility for the attack
The trend
of declining civilian fatalities established since 2013
has been reversed in 2017, when selective attacks on peace
committee members and civilians increased sharply, with
fatalities witnessing an over two-fold jump. According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP) at least 170 civilian fatalities, including
12 peace committee members, were recorded in 2017, as
against 76 such fatalities, including nine peace committee
members, in 2016. More worryingly, fatalities in this
category (civilian) recorded in 2017 were the highest
since 2013, when such fatalities stood at 319. The worst
attack targeting civilians in the year took place on June
24, 2017, when at least 67 persons were killed and more
than 200 were injured in back-to-back explosions in the
Turi Bazaar area of Parachinar in the Kurram Agency of
FATA, when the market was crowed for Iftar (the
evening meal that breaks the daily fast during the holy
month of Ramadan) and Eid (celebration that marks
the end of Ramadan) shopping. The al-Alami (International)
faction of LeJ claimed responsibility for the twin bomb
blasts and declared in a statement that it was targeting
Shias and threatened more attacks in response to "Pakistanis
fighting against Sunni militants in Syria's civil war".
While civilians
faced the increased brunt of terror through 2017, the
terrorists also increased their attacks against SFs. Fatalities
among SFs increased from 39 in 2016 to 54 in 2017. Here
also, as in case of civilians, the trend of declining
fatalities, established since 2013, was reversed.
On the
contrary, terrorist fatalities continued their steep decline
through 2017. The number of terrorist fatalities was 315
in 2016, and declined dramatically to 167 in 2017, the
lowest since 2006. Fatalities in this category recorded
a remarkable decline in 2016 as well, as there were 1,642
such fatalities in 2015.
There were
391 total fatalities in 2017, as against 430 in 2016.
FATA has, so far, recorded two fatalities, one civilian
and SF each, in the current year (data till January 14,
2018).
Fatalities
in FATA: 2006-2018
Years
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
2006
|
109
|
144
|
337
|
590
|
2007
|
424
|
243
|
1014
|
1681
|
2008
|
1116
|
242
|
1709
|
3067
|
2009
|
636
|
350
|
4252
|
5238
|
2010
|
540
|
262
|
4519
|
5321
|
2011
|
488
|
233
|
2313
|
3034
|
2012
|
549
|
306
|
2046
|
2901
|
2013
|
319
|
198
|
1199
|
1716
|
2014
|
159
|
194
|
2510
|
2863
|
2015
|
134
|
106
|
1642
|
1882
|
2016
|
76
|
39
|
315
|
430
|
2017
|
170
|
54
|
167
|
391
|
2018
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Total*
|
4721
|
2372
|
22023
|
29116
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till January 14, 2018
The
Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies
(PICSS) in its annual report released on January 1, 2018,
also recorded a rise in civilian and SF fatalities in
2017. The report shows that FATA recorded 206 civilian
and 70 SF fatalities in 2017 as against 81 civilian and
60 SF fatalities in 2016. The number of terrorist fatalities,
according to the report, was 152 in 2017, as against 51
in 2016. The number of terrorist attacks also registered
an increase: from 119 in 2016 to 160 in 2017.
Meanwhile,
the SATP database indicated that the number of major incidents
(each involving three or more fatalities) increased from
32 in 2016 to 34 in 2017. Though the number of suicide
attacks in both these years (2017 and 2016) remained at
three each, the resultant fatalities increased from 55
in 2016 to 99 in 2017.
Sectarian
attacks also increased in FATA through 2017. As against
one such incident recorded in 2016, in which 37 people
died, year 2017 accounted for 117 fatalities in three
incidents.
Pakistani
authorities, nevertheless, claimed overwhelming successes
in FATA. Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director
General Major General Asif Ghafoor declared on August
21, 2017, that Operation Khyber-4, which was launched
on July 15, 2017, in Rajgal and Shawal areas of Khyber
Agency, has been successfully completed. He claimed that
the ground targets had been achieved in Rajgal and Shawal
areas and 253 kilometres of land had been cleared of terrorists
during the operation, in which 52 terrorists were killed
and one was arrested, while four terrorists blew themselves
up. The Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Qamar Javed
Bajwa claimed, on October 11, 2017, that Pakistan had
improved the security situation on the internal front
and defeated the challenges to the writ of the State,
though a ‘residual threat’ remained. Further, on January
13, 2018, Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi declared
that Pakistan had achieved remarkable success against
terrorism: “The tide has been turned against terrorists
and their capacity to conduct activities has been immensely
curtailed.”
Not surprisingly,
the international community, primarily the United States
(US), continues to consider FATA as safe haven for terrorist
formations. In a stern warning to Pakistan, Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA) Director Mike Pompeo on December 4, 2017,
stated that if Pakistan did not eliminate the alleged
safe havens inside its territory, the United States will
do “everything we can” to destroy them. More recently,
on January 10, 2018, the US Government issued a new travel
advisory to it citizens cautioning them against travel
to FATA, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The US State
Department statement read:
Reconsider
travel to Pakistan due to terrorism. Some areas
have increased risk. Do not travel to Balochistan
province, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas, (FATA) and
the Azad Kashmir area due to terrorism and armed
conflict.
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Significantly,
US drone attacks surged in 2017, in the terrorist badlands
of FATA, where al Qaeda, the Haqqani Network and the Hafiz
Gul Bahadur faction of TTP find shelter. There were two
drone attacks in FATA, with just seven fatalities, in
2016; in 2017 this number jumped to eight, resulting in
43 fatalities, including some of the senior ‘commanders’
of the Haqqani Network, TTP and Islamic State (IS). Some
of the prominent terrorist ‘commanders’ eliminated in
these attacks in 2017 were:
December
26: A US drone strike killed two Haqqani network terrorists,
including senior 'commander' Maulvi Jamiuddin, travelling
in a vehicle in the Mata Sangar area, near the Afghanistan-Pakistan's
border, in Kurram Agency.
October
16: At least 20 Haqqani Network terrorists, including
senior 'commander' Sangeen Wali Shah, were killed in a
US drone strike on a compound near the border with Afghanistan
in the Maqbal area of Kurram Agency.
July 3:
Four IS terrorists, including ‘commander’ Pir Agha, were
killed when a US drone fired two missiles at the vehicle
they were travelling in, in the Marghalan village of SWA.
May 24:
A US drone attack killed three terrorists, including a
TTP ‘commander’ Abdullah Kashmiri, at an unspecified location
close to the Afghanistan border in North Waziristan Agency
(NWA).
April 27:
A suspected US drone strike on a house in the Lawara Mandi
area of NWA killed at least seven TTP terrorists, including
senior ‘commander’ Abdur Rahman.
March 2:
A US drone strike killed senior Afghan Taliban ‘commander’
Qari Abdullah Sabari and his associate Shakir’ when they
were travelling on a motorcycle in the Sra Ghundai area,
along the Pak-Afghan border, in Kurram Agency.
In spite
of these confirmed kills on Pakistani soil, Pakistani
authorities continue to claim that there were no terrorist
safe havens in Pakistan. Indeed, Foreign Minister Khawaja
Asif argued that the decrease in US drone attacks over
the preceding years proved that there were no more safe
havens in Pakistan. The Foreign Minister shared a chart
of drone attacks carried out over 12 years from 2005 till
Oct 15, 2017, in the Pakistani territory. He tweeted:
"12yrs drone attacks chart. If we have sanctuaries
why frequency is sharply down? US won’t hesitate attacking
funeral, weddings to get targets".
Though
total terrorism related fatalities in FATA declined in
FATA in 2017, escalating fatalities in the civilian and
SF categories are grounds for alarm, and the enormous
burden of destruction faced by tribal people over years
has made their lives miserable. Ministry of States and
Frontier Regions (SAFRON) figure revealed on May 28, 2017,
show that at least 5,740 people, including Paramilitary
Forces’ officials, have lost their lives in FATA in terrorist
attacks during the last six years. Moreover, an estimated
80,000 houses were damaged, of which the Government validated
only 22,471 for compensation.
Despite
Pakistan’s claim of eliminating terrorist sanctuaries
and their bases in FATA, the persisting problem of terrorism
has kept insecurities alive. Pakistan’s double standard
in dealing with terrorism has provided opportunities to
terrorist groups to continue their operation within as
well from Pakistani territory. As long as Pakistan continues
with its State policy of using terrorist groups as "strategic
assets", terrorism will continue to thrive in FATA
in particular, and Pakistan at large.
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Manipur:
Partial Surge
Giriraj
Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
United
National Liberation Front (UNLF)
militants on January 4, 2018, shot dead a civilian, identified
as Loukrakpam Sananingthem Singh, at Lamsang Khunou in
Imphal West District. The victim was earlier arrested
in connection with a sexual assault case in 2015.
This is
the lone insurgency-related fatality recorded in the State
in the current year, 2018, so far (data till January 14,
2018). There were six such fatalities (four civilians,
one trooper, and one militant) in the corresponding period
of 2017.
Indeed,
according to partial data compiled by the South
Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there was a 66
per cent spike in total fatalities in 2017, as compared
to 2016. The State registered at least 55 fatalities,
including 23 civilians, nine Security Force (SF) personnel,
and 23 militants in 2017; as against 33 fatalities, including
14 civilians, 11 SF personnel, and eight militants, in
2016. Notably, fatalities recorded in 2016 (33) were the
lowest recorded in the State in a year since 1992. The
previous low was 54, recorded in 2014. It is useful to
note, however, that the trend of fatalities in the State,
on year on year basis, has tended to be cyclic
in nature.
Worryingly,
the number of civilian fatalities, which had recorded
a continuous decline since 2008, increased in 2017. Fatalities
in this category (23) were the highest recorded since
2012 when there were 25 civilian fatalities.
Other parameters
of violence were also indicative of a surge in hostilities.
There were a total of 41 incidents of insurgency-linked
killings in 2017, as compared to 22 such incidents in
2016. Also, six lives were lost and 62 persons were injured
in 35 incidents of explosion in 2017; as compared to two
killed and 28 injured in 51 such incidents in 2016.
Further,
killing incidents were reported from 10 of the State’s
16 Districts in 2017. Kamjong District recorded the highest
number of fatalities, nine in five incidents; followed
by Tegnoupal, seven in five incidents; Kangpokpi, six
in five incidents; Churachandpur, five in three incidents,
Chandel, five in three incidents; Imphal West five in
five incidents; Ukhrul, five in five incidents; Noney,
four in four incidents; Jiribam District, four in four
incidents; and Bishnupur, one in one incident. The place
of the incident is not exactly known in case of the remaining
four fatalities. In 2016, killing incidents were reported
from eight of the State’s 16 Districts (including the
seven new Districts).
The Naga
and Kuki dominated seven
Hill Districts accounted for 74.5
per cent of total fatalities (41 out of the total 55 fatalities)
in 2017. There were no fatalities in the remaining three
Hill Districts (Senapati, Pherzawl and Tamenglong). Manipur
currently has a total of 10 Hill Districts: Chandel, Tamenglong,
Senapati, Ukhrul, Pherzawl, Noney, Tegnoupal, Kangpokpi,
Kamjong and Churachandpur. In 2016, fatalities were reported
from five Hill Districts: Chandel, Tamenglong, Senapati,
Ukhrul and Churachandpur accounting for 69.7 per cent
of total fatalities (23 out of 33). In 2016, there were
only five Hill Districts in the State. Each of these Districts
was bifurcated on December 9, 2016. After bifurcation,
between December 9 and December 31, 2016, there was one
incident of killing in which three SF personnel were killed
in Chandel District on December 15, 2016.
Similarly,
three Valley Districts (Imphal West, Jiribam and Bishnupur)
registered the remaining 24.4 per cent of fatalities (10
of 55) in 2017. In 2016, three valley Districts (Imphal
West, Imphal East and Thoubal) registered 30.3 per cent
of total fatalities (10 of 33). Significantly, five of
the current 10 Hill Districts are along the porous and
volatile
Indo-Myanmar border, increasing their vulnerability.
Incidents
of fratricidal killings also increased. In 2017, with
19 fatalities recorded in 10 such incidents, as against
four fatalities in four incidents in 2016. On September
12, 2017, suspected militants of the Nationalist Socialist
Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM)
attacked a combined team of the banned People’s Liberation
Army (PLA)
and the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) at Makan village
in Kamjong District near Border Pillar No. 8, along the
Indo-Myanmar border, and killed five militants: PLA ‘sergeant
major’ Richard aka Wareppam Dinesh, PLA ‘sergeant’
Lalloi aka Khundrakpam Sunil, PLA ‘private’ Nanao
aka Moirangthem Tomba, PLA ‘private’ Sinthouba
aka Konjengbam Shyamsundar, and MNPF cadre Raikham
Jajo aka Nimai Jazo. The NSCN-IM militants took
away the weapons of their slain rivals.
The issue
of the politico-administrative status of the Hill Districts
remained unresolved though 2017. The ‘indefinite economic
blockade’ on the two National Highways (Imphal-Dimapur
NH-2 and Imphal-Jiribam NH-37) by the United Naga Council
(UNC) [the apex body of Nagas in Manipur], over the proposed
creation of new Districts, which began on November 1,
2016, continued for the first two months and 19 days of
2017. In the interim, on December 9, 2016, the then State
Government led by Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, created
seven new districts. Five of these Districts were formed
by bifurcating the five then-existing Hill Districts (Chandel,
Tamenglong, Senapati, Ukhrul and Churachandpur). The newly
created Districts were Pherzawl, Noney, Tegnoupal, Kangpokpi
and Kamjong. Another two new Districts – Jiribam and Kakching
– were formed by bifurcating two Valley districts: Imphal
East and Thoubal. The blockade ended subsequent to a meeting
between UNC, the State Government, and Union Government,
on March 19, 2017, in which all sides reached an agreement.
Satyendra Garg, Joint Secretary in the Union Ministry
of Home Affairs, who signed the agreement on behalf of
Union Government, stated,
Tripartite
talks succeeded in addressing the issues and the
UNC has agreed to lift the economic blockade. The
government of Manipur took note of the grievances
of the UNC, including that of them not being consulted
while creating the new districts. The UNC has to
now frame what exactly their point of view is. Initially
they had asked for non-bifurcation of Senapati and
Jiribam districts. They will have to clear their
stand about the entire seven Districts. Manipur
Government will consider whatever changes they want.
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There were
six rounds of tripartite talks in 2017. The next round
of tripartite talks is scheduled to be held on February
23, 2018
In the
valley Districts demands for implementation of the Inner
Line Permit (ILP) persist, supported by the Joint Committee
on Inner Line Permit System (JCILPS). Safeguarding the
State’s ‘territorial integrity’ remains an emotive issue
in the Valley Districts, especially after the signing
of the August 3, 2015, Framework
Agreement with NSCN-IM. In an interview
to a news channel on December 28, 2017, United Committee
Manipur (UCM) ‘president’ Johnson Elangbam warned, "If
the framework agreement is only for Nagaland, give them
whatever they want – sovereignty, flag, passport, whatever….
But if it is going to be linked to Assam and Manipur,
our voices must be heard. Or else, there could be a repeat
of 2001 [violence] and the consequences will be on the
Centre [Union Government]".
Amidst
these adverse developments, there were also some positives.
On December 19, 2017, Union Minister of State (MoS) for
Home Affairs Hansraj Ahir stated, "While the states
of Sikkim, Mizoram and Tripura had no insurgency-related
violence, the number of these incidents had come down
in Assam, Nagaland, Manipur and Meghalaya in 2017 (till
30 November), as compared to the corresponding period
of 2016."
Moreover,
the trend of continuous increase in the number of people
abducted for ransom and in extortion between 2013 and
2015 (40 persons in 2013, 50 persons in 2014, 51 persons
in 2015) which was reversed in 2016 (44 abducted) continued
downward through 2017. A total of 23 persons were reported
to have been abducted in 2017 (actual incidence each year
is likely to be much higher as a large proportion of cases
go unreported).
Further,
fatalities in the SF category continued to decline through
2017 and stood at nine, the second ever lowest fatalities
recorded in this category since 1992; the lowest was 6,
recorded in 2013, while the highest of 111 was recorded
in 1997. In the recent past, SF fatalities were 24 in
2015, the highest since 2007, when there were 40 such
fatalities.
177 militants
were arrested in 2017, adding to 175 arrested through
2016. Mounting pressure also led to the surrender of 71
militants in 2017 as compared to just nine in 2016. In
a major incident of surrender, on August 14, 2017, at
least 68 militants of six different militant groups laid
down arms before the SFs in Imphal West District, in presence
of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh. The militants who laid
down arms included 23 of the Kangleipak Communist Party
(KCP),
17 of the United National liberation Front (UNLF), 10
of the People’s Revolutionary Army of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
seven each of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Progressive
faction of PREPAK (PREPAK-Pro), and four of Kanglei Yowel
Kanna Lup (KYKL).
SF successes
over the years have brought relative peace to Manipur,
and a progressive emphasis on development is now an urgent
imperative. The Union Government has rightly recognized
the Northeastern States as the pivot of its Act East Policy.
Thus, the Union Government’s Cabinet Committee on Economic
Affairs (CCEA) on July 12, 2017, approved an INR 16.3
billion road project for upgradation and widening of the
65 kilometer road stretch between Imphal and Moreh, to
be linked further to Myanmar and Thailand.
The challenge
of security, nevertheless, remains within the State and,
more prominently, in the areas which fall along the volatile
and insecure Indo-Myanmar, particularly
as the situation in Myanmar remains worrying. Persistent
security threats can undo the planned development efforts
envisioned by the State.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
January
8-14, 2018
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Islamist Terrorism
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
Maharashtra
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
INDIA (Total)
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
9
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
10
|
FATA
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
KP
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Sindh
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
6
|
7
|
5
|
18
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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