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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 37, March 28, 2005

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal



ASSESSMENT

 

PAKISTAN

The Centre Cannot Hold…
Guest Writer: Amir Mir
Senior Assistant Editor, Monthly Herald, Dawn Group of Newspapers, Karachi

The law and order situation in Pakistan's Balochistan province continues to deteriorate with every passing day amidst armed attacks by Baloch nationalists on the country's main natural gas installations to express their anger on a range of contentious issues, be it the alleged rape of a lady doctor by an Army Captain, the setting up of three new cantonments in the province, the exploitation of Balochistan's natural resources by the Centre, or the launching of federally sanctioned mega projects there.

  Also Read
Schooling for Terror -- Amir Mir
The Jehad Lives On -- Amir Mir

Over last few months, Baloch rebels have been hard at work planting landmines, firing rockets, exploding bombs or ambushing military convoys and killing dozens including army jawans (soldiers), levies, security agents, Government officials as well as civilians. The Sui airport building has been blown up, gas pipelines and electricity grids have been hit repeatedly, and bomb explosions have been engineered close to the official residence of the provincial Chief Minister as well as the Governor. Even the military installations in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, have not been spared by the angry nationalists. A fierce gun-battle between tribal insurgents and the Frontier Corps (FC) near Sangsela in the Dera Bugti district of Balochistan province on March 17, 2005, left more than 50 dead, mostly women and children. The worsening law and order situation took yet another dangerous turn on March 20, 2005, when the Governor of Balochistan, Awais Ahmed Ghani, informed the national media that the Bugti tribesmen had surrounded an entire military fort manned by at least 300 FC personnel of at a base in the Dera Bugti area.

The Bugti loyalists surrounded the FC Fort after rumours that an anti-Bugti military operation was about to be launched. The Bugti tribesmen encircling the FC Fort had already been surrounded by a second layer of the Army jawans, leaving the Bugti tribesmen sandwiched between the Fort and the outer layer of the Army. These developments were followed by the March 21 lodging of a criminal case against Akbar Bugti, his grandson Bramdagh Bugti and 150 other Bugti tribesmen on charges of attacking the FC convoy, killing and injuring FC personnel, destroying national installations and disrupting law and order on March 17, 2005. Akbar Bugti has been ruthless over the years in maintaining his dominance of the Bugtis. Outside the tense desert town of Dera Bugti, hundreds of determined tribesmen with guns sit in bunkers near the roadside. However, Bugti still appears easy to target, surrounded by a tribal militia that could be badly outgunned if security forces launch a major military operation. Some 6,000 Pakistani forces, including the regular army, are in the region.

Rich in natural and mineral resources, Balochistan is the largest of Pakistan's four provinces but has high illiteracy and unemployment rate. The poverty-stricken province has been in the news for the past many months due to frequent armed clashes between armed Baloch nationalists and Pakistan Army troops. The unrest in Balochistan has, however, simmered for many decades, with nationalists leading insurgencies in 1948, 1958-59, 1962-63 and 1973-77, all of which were suppressed by the all-powerful Pakistan Army. The last such crisis of the 1970s erupted into an insurgency that lasted four years and was eventually put down, with the Army employing brutal methods. The revolt which manifested itself in the form of an armed struggle against the Army was largely provoked by unjust federal policies that had created a sense of deprivation among the people of Balochistan. The rebellion finally came to an end after Zia-ul-Haq's 1977 military coup against the civilian Government of Premier Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the Baloch nationalists didn't make trouble because they had become a part of the political landscape, since they were sharing power in the province. Over the past five years, since General Musharraf's 1999 military take over, however, the nationalists have gradually been excluded from political power in the province, which is now being ruled by a coalition Government of the establishment-sponsored right-wing Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the six-party alliance of religious extremists, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Frustrated, the nationalists launched an armed struggle to re-stake their claims, leading to a bloody insurgency. The result is that the law and order situation in Balochistan is eroding with every passing day.

The key to the events currently unfolding in Balochistan can be traced back to the early days of 2003, a year that will go down in Baloch political history as one of mergers and coalitions among nationalist groups. By September 2003, four major Baloch nationalist parties had fallen together in an alliance called the Baloch Ithehad (Baloch Alliance), which had a two-point agenda that coincided exactly with that professed by the armed rebels of the province: opposition to the setting up of military garrisons and to the launching of mega projects on Baloch soil. The two-point agenda soon became an active and violently articulated popular scheme in the province.

As far as the current wave of violence is concerned, it began on January 1, 2005, when Dr. Shazia Khalid of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) was raped in the confines of the high-security Sui Gas Refinery compound, allegedly by four Army men including a Captain belonging to the Defence Security Guards (DSG). Under pressure from military authorities, the administration tried to hush up the crime. Yet, the charismatic chieftain of the Bugti tribe, Sardar Akbar Khan Bugti, was quick to hold a press conference, describing Dr. Shazia Khalid's rape as an affront to the Baloch honour, which he declared "must be avenged at all costs". A few days later, on January 6, 2005, a clandestine organisation calling itself the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) started targeting the positions of DSG and FC around the PPL installations.

Yet, the Musharraf Administration, instead of cooling down Baloch emotions by taking the rape accused to task, decided to rush thousands of additional troops to Dera Bugti, besides announcing the setting up of new and permanent military bases in Balochistan The proposed building of new cantonments greatly irritated Baloch Sardars, particularly the heads of the Bugti, the Marri and the Mengal tribes, who view the move as an unwarranted intrusion to further subjugate them. But, ignoring the Baloch sentiments with impunity, General Musharraf alleged on March 24, 2005, that the three tribal chiefs of Balochistan (Sardar Akbar Khan Bugti, Sardar Attaullah Mengal and Nawab Khair Baksh Marri) were responsible for the present mess in the province, as they are opposed to the mega-projects in particular, and to development in the province in general, for fear that their traditional hold on their areas may be weakened by modernization.

The tribal chiefs, on the other hand, clarified that they are not opposed to development, but to the deprivation of the Baloch people's rights in the name of development and modernization. They maintain that the people of Balochistan are being denied their due share of the income from huge gas reserves, coupled with the fact that they have effectively been excluded from both the development and political process in Balochistan, and that too, to the enormous advantage of the Army, which is using development to extend its presence and increase its influence in the province. Even otherwise, major Baloch grievances continue to revolve around the issue of development and royalties for natural resources.

Natural Gas was discovered in the Sui area around 1952. Since then, Pakistan has benefited enormously from this cheap source of energy. Balochistan, however, neither had gas for its own use nor was paid royalties, which were its due, till the mid-1980s, and that too when an Army cantonment needed the gas - although Sui gas had reached far-flung towns in Punjab by that time. The gas from Balochistan meets 38 per cent of the national needs, yet only six per cent of Balochistan's 6.5 million people have access to it. Adding insult to injury, Balochistan is not paid proper royalties, with amounts paid to the province for its gas pegged much lower than those being paid for later discoveries in Sindh and Punjab. This is cause of much heartburn for the Baloch, who have now decided to resist exploration activities unless they are assured a fair share in gas and oil development.

Baloch concerns about their status were intensified when the Federal Government launched a project in the coastal town of Gwadar, which they fear will lead to large-scale immigration from other provinces, adding to the large numbers of 'outsiders' already present in the province. The nationalists say Gwadar is a Federal project without provincial approval or participation, in which the non-Baloch civil-military elites are grabbing land for a song. With Balochistan's entire population standing at only 6.5 million, almost half of which is non-Baloch, the Balochis fear they are being 'Red Indianised'. They consequently demand that over 50 per cent of the jobs at Gwadar be given to them.

Further, there is opposition to the establishment of new cantonments at three places in Balochistan - Kohlu, Sui and Gwadar. The nationalists say they are not needed for national defence, but are rather being set up to protect the planned Punjabi settlements and to suppress Baloch opposition to the usurpation of their rights by these outsiders.

On the other hand, General Pervez Musharraf's Balochistan policy is moving on two parallel tracks - one hardline and the other more flexible. He wants to send a clear message to the defiant tribal chiefs: we will talk; but only up to a point. The move for a political dialogue with the nationalists has been a non-starter till now, in the absence of any indication of the military's willingness to consider their demands relating to the increase in the payment of royalty, suspension of the construction of the Gwadar project till its implications for the economic interests of the Balochis are examined, the stoppage of the influx of the Punjabis and other non-Balochis into the province, and the abandoning of the plans for more cantonments. Musharraf has already made clear his determination to go ahead with the Gwadar and other Chinese-aided projects in the province, as also the projects for new cantonments.

Recent events in Balochistan have once again clearly underlined the many political handicaps faced by the country. The matter of solving the Balochistan dispute is no more about settling a single problem, such as the rape of a lady doctor, the exploitation of the province's natural resources, the setting up of new cantonments, or the continuing hostility and tension surrounding the Sui reserves. The matter is fundamentally about Pakistan's basic political direction, if the country is to become a stable and prospectively progressive state. If this is the case, the only way to deal with the problem is to give the people of Balochistan the rights that have been denied to them. The use of brute force will only cause further alienation, leaving them no option but to fight for their genuine economic and political rights. The clock is ticking and the Musharraf regime must move swiftly for a political situation, where the strong are just and the weak secure.



SRI LANKA

TRO and Tsunami
Guest Writer: Bandula Jayasekara
Correspondent, The Island newspaper in Sri Lanka, and The Lanka Academic

Tsunami killer waves brought sorrow and destruction to most coastal parts of Sri Lanka. The wave did not discriminate between rich or the poor, the Army or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the Government controlled areas or the areas temporarily controlled by the LTTE. Many say that clouds of war were looming when the Tsunami struck, and this tragedy has given an opportunity for all Sri Lankans to work together and to re-build the country as it faced the worst natural disaster in its history. Nearly forty thousand perished within just two hours. The long conflict, so far, has seen just about 70,000 dead over a period of twenty years. As he surveyed the devastation, former US Secretary of State, General Collin Powell, said he had not seen such destruction even in the battle field or a war zone.

  Also Read
No War, No Peace -- Ameen Izzadeen
Aid adds Venom to Politics -- Ameen Izzadeen

Neither Sri Lanka nor the world was ready to face a disaster of this magnitude, but each rallied around to do its part. The Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, returned immediately from London; a Centre for National Disaster Operation was set up to coordinate relief and rescue operations across affected areas in the country, whether under the control of the LTTE or in the South. In the initial stages, the LTTE leader Prabhakaran was no where to be seen leading to speculation that he had become a victim of the Tsunami. However, he appeared much later to meet with the Norwegian Foreign Minister, Jan Petersen, though many in Sri Lanka continued to believe that Prabhakaran was dead and that it was only a double who met Petersen.

With the Tsunami, the LTTE front Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO), known as its fundraising outfit and banned in a number of countries, including USA, UK and Malaysia, came to the forefront in the areas temporarily controlled by the LTTE. They seized the opportunity, riding on the sympathy wave around the world, with the TRO organizing fundraising campaigns even in countries like the United Kingdom (UK) where they are banned. The Governments of these counties turned a blind eye to these activities, even though posters and other publicity material requested support only for the north and the east of Sri Lanka. At the same time, the TRO and the LTTE carried out a sinister propaganda exercise against, claiming the Government had done nothing to help the people of the north and the east. The Sri Lankan Foreign Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar, on March 17, told a gathering at the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies in London that the LTTE should not be allowed to use the Tsunami for propaganda.

The World Food Programme and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which have often been seen and accused of being sympathetic towards the LTTE, have both denied that the Government had neglected the North and the East in its relief operations. Nevertheless, the TRO/LTTE campaign of calumny continues, and has secured some sympathy from sections of the western media and gullible western countries and International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs).

The TRO, mainly with support from some INGOs, appears to have taken full control of the situation and the operation in the areas under the LTTE's current control. A report published by the TRO this month on their progress looked impressive in print and shows many foreign nationals working with the TRO. However, the world does not have a full report on the damage, death and destruction in the areas currently under LTTE control, and there is evidence of significant distortions. A community worker in the North said "We are facing a dilemma here. The TRO prevents us from working freely here and they obstruct any form of relief other than through them." Academic and Conflict Analyst, Dayan Jayatillke, said "Unless the TRO is given the monopoly they will continue to obstruct others from working in the north/east and giving relief to the affected people. They are adopting the policy of a 'Tiger in the manger'." He also said that TRO and the LTTE were using the Tsunami as an opportunity to gain lost sympathy and to fill their coffers. Given the sheer quantum of relief funding flowing in, the LTTE-TRO seeks direct control, while the Government has proposed a joint mechanism that would ensure greater accountability. This is yet to be finalised and discussions have dragged on.

Some sections of the NGOs in the North have, nevertheless, claimed that TRO has done a good job in trying to re-build the areas that have been devastated, even while it helps the LTTE raise funds for other purposes. Even though there are many LTTE front organizations, including, for instance, the White Pigeon, operating after the Tsunami, the TRO has taken the lead role, and it is evident that the LTTE is keen to give legitimacy. It is difficult to determine the exact quantum of funds being handled by the TRO after the tsunami, but, independent analysts believe it to be in the billions of rupees. A TRO document conceded that the organization had received a sum of nearly USD 500 million between December 26 to January 26, including USD 500,000 from Norway. It stated further that local institutions and private donations had added SLR 52.4 million, postal orders SLR 3.8 million, and another SLR 20.7 million from NGOs.

At least some of the relief operations are being exploited for illicit ends. Customs sources indicate that the TRO has cleared more than forty containers since the tsunami, and more are pending clearance. However, the Government was forced to tighten its regulations on customs clearance for most NGOs and INGOs, including the TRO, after many unwanted goods and even sensitive communication equipment, arms and helicopter and plane parts were found in containers purportedly carrying relief goods. Thus, for instance, Sri Lanka's Air Force, on January 22, 2005, detained two unassembled helicopters that arrived with Tsunami aid supplies, saying they presented a potential threat to national security. A Bell helicopter and an unidentified aircraft arrived at the international airport, sealed in wooden crates as part of a Tsunami aid consignment. The TRO, in retaliation, has started a disinformation campaign, claiming that the Government is taxing relief goods and making things difficult for relief organisations. A senior Brigadier of the Sri Lanka Army said " We cannot allow the country's security to be threatened and allow interested parties to smuggle arms and other equipment in the name of relief. That's why we have asked the Navy to check all the containers" However, Analyst Dayan Jayatillke said it was a ploy by the LTTE to create hatred among between international organizations and the Government.

The LTTE, in turn, has accused the Government of wanting to take control of the funds in order to use them as a bargaining point in the stalled peace process. The Government, however, has clearly stated that it has no intention of exploiting the relief issue for political gains, as this is the largest humanitarian disaster the country has ever faced. Some Government officials have also gone on record to state that 'ground level cooperation' with the LTTE has been 'excellent'.

The present crisis is too great for relief to be held ransom to politics. All the victims want is a roof over their heads, their lost livelihood, and the chance to recover the fragments of their lives in peace.

 

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
March 21-27, 2005

 
Civilian
Security Force Personnel
Terrorist
Total

BANGLADESH

0
0
3
3

INDIA

     Jammu &
     Kashmir

14
1
10
25

     Left-wing
     Extremism

3
1
6
10

     Manipur

0
1
3
4

     Nagaland

0
0
11
11

Total (INDIA)

17
3
30
50

NEPAL

4
3
12
19

PAKISTAN

1
5
1
7

SRI LANKA

0
0
7
7
 Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Naxalites planned big attack in Delhi, says arrested leader: Left-wing extremists (also known as Naxalites) planned a 'big action' in New Delhi to capture the nation's attention, a top-ranking leader who was recently arrested at Rajahmundry in Andhra Pradesh (AP) has reportedly revealed to the police. According to Times of India, the 'central committee' of the Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist) entrusted the mission to Patel Sudhakar Reddy alias Suryam and Takkelapalli Vasudeva Rao alias Ashanna, both prime suspects in the assassination attempt on former AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu, at Alipiri in 2003. CPI-Maoist leader, K. Seshagiri Rao alias Gopanna, who was arrested from a hotel room in Rajahmundry on March 6, 2005, revealed information on the plan to the police. Until his arrest, Gopanna, who faces over 40 murder cases, used to head the CPI-Maoist military wing in its Andhra-Orissa Border Zone. Times of India, March 26, 2005.

10 persons killed during factional fight between NSCN groups in Nagaland: At least 10 people were reportedly killed and several others sustained injuries during clashes between the two rival Naga insurgent factions in Nagaland on March 24, 2005. Police said some 60 cadres of the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) attacked a camp of the rival group led by S.S. Khaplang (NSCN-K) in the Surohuto village of Zunheboto district, 190 km north of the capital Kohima, at approximately 5.30 am (IST). Senior NSCN-K leader, Kughalo Mulatonu, claimed that their cadres had killed 10 attackers. "It was an unprovoked attack and we have already inflicted heavy casualties," said Mulatonu. Police official Muthasuyi Chakesang, however, said they had confirmation of three NSCN-IM cadres being killed. "We have rushed paramilitary soldiers to defuse the situation. The casualty figures might go up as fighting is still on," the official said.Times of India, March 25, 2005.


PAKISTAN

Kashmir resolution will avoid another Kargil, says President Musharraf: President Pervez Musharraf said on March 27, 2005, that India and Pakistan should adopt a 'positive' attitude towards the Kargil war and resolve the Kashmir issue to prevent a repeat of a Kargil-like situation. Replying to an e-mail sent by an Indian to his (Musharraf's) website asking his views on the reunification of India and Pakistan as well as his 'silence' on the Kargil war, Gen. Musharraf said reunification was not possible, but both countries could establish close ties if Kashmir was resolved. "I will like to say that you must never see Kargil alone. See Kargil in its entire complexity of the Kashmir dispute in Kashmir. We have had three wars," he said, adding "What is the future? Resolve disputes so that Siachens, Kargil, Marpola and Chorbatla don't happen again. Let us resolve Kashmir first and then I am sure it won't happen again." Daily Times, March 28, 2005.

Former Inspector General of Police among five police personnel killed in Gilgit: Former Inspector General of Police (IGP), Sakhiullah Tareen, and four police officials were killed when unidentified men fired at his vehicle on March 23, 2005, near village Jotal in the Northern Areas of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Tareen was on his way back to Gilgit from Hunza when gunmen ambushed the vehicle he was traveling in. The IGP's son and daughter-in-law were wounded during the ambush. "It appears to be a sectarian murder. We have ordered investigations," said an unnamed Interior Ministry official. The Government had reportedly removed Tareen from the post of Northern Areas IGP and had transferred him as officer on special duty on March 18. Daily Times, March 24, 2005.



The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



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